Roberto A. Ferdman passes along Morgan Stanley research claiming that we are in the middle of a global wine shortage. Felix Salmon spots numerous errors with it:
The Morgan Stanley report paints a picture of a long-term secular downward trend in area under vine, which is running straight into a long-term secular upward trend in global demand for wine. But reality is more complicated than that: thanks to a combination of technology and global warming, an acre of vines can reliably produce more wine, and better wine, than it ever did in the 1970s. And of course if demand for wine really does start consistently exceeding supply, then there’s no reason why area under vine can’t stop going down and start going up.
But never mind all that: the Morgan Stanley report has numbers and charts, and journalists are very bad at being skeptical when faced with such things. Even Finz’s Chronicle article, which sensibly poured cold water on the report, ends with a “Wine by the numbers” box which simply reproduces all of Morgan Stanley’s flawed figures. And besides, the debunkings are never going to go viral in the way that the original “wine shortage!” articles did.
Update from a reader:
“then there’s no reason why area under vine can’t stop going down and start going up.” Yep, the Spaniards brought wine grapes to California hundreds of years before what seems like half the state was growing grapes. And apples. My cousins live in western Sonoma county, have since the ’70s. It used to be covered in apple orchards. It’s now covered in grape vines. Making small batches, 50 dollar a bottle wine. Which probably makes them more money than sending apples to the apple processing plant in Sebastopol.
Ohio used to be famous for its Champagne. Then Prohibition came along and they stopped making Champagne. The big apple orchard just west of here has begun experimenting with making apple wine, as opposed to hard cider, and even has varietals. Apple wine goes much better with turkey than a Chardonnay. But then I’m of the opinion that Chardonnay doesn’t go with much of anything, Just like I’m of the opinion that most of the time the inky red stuff in a 5 liter bottle is better with whatever going on the table compared to 50 dollar bottles of stuff that’s been thought about too much from where the apple orchard used to be on the drive to my cousin’s house. One of them proudly poured a small glass of the supposedly really good stuff for us. We were polite and said it was interesting and couldn’t think of what it would pair with … because it would pair with refinishing your floors in a spilled wine stain color. I’m didn’t ask how they got that particular balance of turpentine, rusty nails and a undertone of kerosene. The flavor of oak sawdust muted it all. I’m sure the vintner thought it was great. It was overwrought.
Most people most of the time swill stuff from boxes. There’s always going to be enough grapes around to make stuff to fill those boxes. Even if they have to chop down the apple orchards and grow grapes instead. Or stop growing corn and soybeans and grow grapes instead. There’s decent stuff coming from the Finger Lakes, from land that would be good for apples but not for corn or soybeans. It’s too steep… there might be some shortages of some things in the short term but it’s not going to be a long term problem. Unless we are stupid enough to let the world population grow and grow and grow. Then we have other more pressing problems than if there’s a shortage of Pinot Noir.
The Dish 