Obama’s approval rating is dropping:
And Obama’s advantage on healthcare has disappeared. How Weigel understands Obama’s recent numbers:
The only explanation for any of this? The “if you like your plan, you can keep your plan” controversy, or IYLYPYCKYPgate. (Maybe that acronym won’t take off.) What should worry Democrats (not that they need the help) is that the broken promise actually isn’t affecting a huge proportion of Americans. Maybe 6 percent of them are losing individual plans; 52 percent of them distrust Obama.
Bernstein considers what these numbers mean:
Presidential approval has real effects on midterm elections. Right now, what matters is perceptions among elites, and potential candidates, about those elections. There’s some evidence Dems benefited from the shutdown, with a small wave of successful recruitment. If the conventional wisdom shifts to a sense that Obama (and Democrats) are doomed, it’s unlikely Democrats could build on those successes. We might see some Republican recruiting coups. Separate from that is the direct effect of presidential popularity; the better Obama is doing in November 2014, the better Dems can expect to do.
The Dish 