Israel’s Warmongering

Drezner considers it unwise, to say the least:

Israeli jaw-jawing about a military strike puts it into a corner with no good exit option.  Netanyahu’s definition of a bad nuclear deal seems to include… any nuclear deal.  So say that one is negotiated.  What can Israel do then?  Netanyahu could follow through on his rhetoric and launch a unilateral strike.  Maybe that would set Iran back a few years.  It would also rupture any deal, accelerate Iran’s nuclear ambitions, invite unconventional retaliation from Iran and its proxies, and isolate Israel even further.  If Netanyahu doesn’t follow through on his rhetoric, then every disparaging Israeli quote about Obama’s volte-face on Syria will be thrown back at the Israeli security establishment.  Times a hundred.

Larison piles on:

Attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities would make the Iranian government more interested in acquiring a nuclear weapon, so an Israeli strike couldn’t ever truly “prevent” that outcome in any case. Once a deal is negotiated, I suspect that Netanyahu will accept it as a fait accompli, because there is nothing else he plausibly could do that wouldn’t risk a huge breach between the U.S. and Israel.

Robert Merry chimes in:

Netanyahu believes, based on past experience, that he can set in motion pressures and forces within the American polity that will ensure the demise of Obama’s delicate reach-out to Iran. And he is willing to risk a rupture with this administration in order to do so because he doesn’t think the risk is very great.

In response to Merry, Larison bets that “the administration will press ahead with negotiations despite Israeli and Congressional complaints”:

I suspect that Obama correctly assumes that his handling of Iran has broader international and domestic support than the critics of the negotiations realize. Netanyahu may think that most Americans will sympathize with his position, but if so he is very likely misreading the public mood and potentially inviting a backlash against himself.

Drum joins the conversation:

Netanyahu obviously has good reason to think that Republicans will support him in this unreservedly, but he better be careful. Even Obama-hating tea party types can start to get a little antsy when a foreign leader is so obviously contemptuous of American interests and the American president.