Nate Cohn parses recent polling:
Several new surveys show that the Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot—the one that emerged during the shutdown—has faded or even evaporated. The three live interview surveys conducted more than two weeks after the shutdown show a dead heat, with the Republicans gaining an average of a net-5 points over the previous survey. Fox News, the newest poll, even shows the Republicans ahead by three points among registered voters.
A “dead heat” among registered voters all but ends Democratic hopes of retaking the House, notwithstanding another political earthquake. They might not even gain seats, since Democrats hold more vulnerable districts than Republicans.
He cautions against reading too much into these numbers:
[I]t would be foolish to assume that the environment will remain this bad for Democrats, just as it was wrong to assume that the GOP was doomed by the shutdown. Frustration will probably subside if and when Obamacare gets up and running. Frustration could even turn into a bit of renewed support if the president benefits from lowered expectations. In the end, the public has a short memory. So, apparently, do most commentators, who have forgotten that they were frothing about the end of the Republican Party as recently as three weeks ago.
Waldman made related points late last week:
Over the next year, the rest of the law will be implemented. There may be problems here and there, but overall it will probably go reasonably well. There will be plenty of things Democrats can point to in order to convince people that it was a good idea, like the fact that now nobody can be denied coverage because of a pre-existing condition, or the fact that millions of people who couldn’t afford coverage or were denied before now have it. There will also be things Republicans will say to try to convince people it was a terrible idea, like the fact that premiums didn’t plummet, and health care is still expensive, and Obamacare didn’t give every little girl a pony.
And what else will happen in the next year? Other things. The economy may get worse, or it may get better. There may be a foreign crisis. Controversies we can’t yet anticipate will emerge, explode, then disappear. A young singer may move her posterior about in a suggestive manner, causing a nation to drop everything and talk about nothing else for a week. We might start talking about immigration reform again. There’s going to be another budget battle. In other words, all sorts of things could affect the next election, and the election after that.
The Dish 