Barry Ritholtz advises against believing reports about retail sales numbers that we’re likely to see in the coming days. He calls the National Retail Federation’s Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey “at best, utterly worthless”:
The surveys bear no correlation relative to actual future retail sales. The conclusions reached (and repeated ad nauseum) are not supported by the data. There are several reasons for this: First, people have no idea what they spent last year. No clue whatsoever. A surveyor stops someone on the way into a mall or other retail locale, asks them a few questions, the answers to which range between wild guesses and complete fabrications.
If you doubt what I am telling you, write down in the next 30 seconds what you personally spent last holiday season on all of gift purchases. Note that I have given you about 25 seconds longer than most people spend coming up with an answer to the survey questions. Now take a look at your checking account, credit card and Amex statements for November and December. How close did you come? Yeah, I thought so.
Now you know the baseline number is off considerably. Lets look at the next step: Asking people to forecast their own future spending. There is a treasure trove of academic research on the subject, which is incontrovertible. It proves beyond any doubt that You Humans have no idea what you will do in the future. Forget forecasting gross domestic product or nonfarm payrolls next year, shoppers have no idea what they are going to spend next week, let alone the holiday season.
Another Black Friday deception: sales that aren’t sales:
Retailers are competing more fiercely than ever for consumer dollars this holiday season, with deep discounts on popular items to get people in the door. Many of those “sales,” though, are utterly meaningless: When the sticker price is arbitrary, the actual price can be whatever a store wants.
Over the years, retailers have floated prices upwards before Thanksgiving to create the perception of steep markdowns — while avoiding a big hit to their profits. Consumers, by now unwilling to pay full price for anything, have played right into their hands. When J.C. Penney tried to introduce “honesty” in pricing, shoppers abandoned the store in droves.
The Dish 