The Senate landscape is getting tougher for Democrats:
Republicans have found a candidate to challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) this year — GOP strategist and lobbyist Ed Gillespie. Gillespie faces an uphill fight; after all, Warner is the most popular politician in Virginia. But don’t lose sight on the fact that Senate Republicans have now put NUMEROUS seats in play beyond the Alaska/Arkansas/Louisiana/Montana/North Carolina/South Dakota/West Virginia playing field. They have a strong candidate in Michigan; they might get Scott Brown to run in New Hampshire; and now they have Gillespie in Virginia, who at the least will make Warner and the Democrats have to spend money in Virginia this year. We’re not saying VA or NH or MI are suddenly toss-ups. But they aren’t run-aways anymore for the Dems. That’s more resources and more incumbents (toss in Colorado and Minnesota to boot) asking the DSCC for help. By comparison, the only two Republican seats Democrats have put in play are Georgia and Kentucky, and both are states Obama lost in 2008 and 2012. There are no Chris Coons’ or Joe Donnellys waiting in the wings to take advantage of Tea Party victories in Mississippi, South Carolina, Kansas, Tennessee or Texas.
Weigel unpacks the GOP’s thinking:
Republicans are at Peak Confidence because of Obamacare. They can see it poisoning the water for even solidly popular Democrats the way Iraq did for solidly popular Republicans in 2006, or the financial crash did in 2008. This is ambitious.
Yes, Virginia’s a better Republican target when Barack Obama isn’t on the ballot. But Warner isn’t Cuccinelli. Warner hasn’t left himself exposed on the left—the big hit on him is that, like every Democrat in the Senate four years ago, he voted for Obamacare. Gillespie’s betting that even a candidate basically genetically engineered to win elections in modern Virginia can be brought low by Obamacare.
Last week, Sabato argued that Republicans could do very well this fall:
A hidden determinant is the division of the Senate into three classes—one-third is elected every two years, making the combination of competitive Senate seats unpredictable and ever shifting, unlike in the heavily gerrymandered House. One party is usually favored to gain seats from the outset, thanks to the pattern of retirements as well as the structure of the Senate class on the ballot.
So: How many Democratic Blue or Republican Red seats are there in an election year? How many incumbents are running, and did any senators holding seats in states favoring the opposite party step aside? How strong has the candidate recruitment been in both parties? Generally speaking, this year’s Senate slate strongly favors the Republicans.
The Dish 