That’s what Massie thinks:
Putin’s hopes for his Eurasian Economic Union are ruined now. He has Belarus and Kazakhstan in his pocket and little Armenia may have little choice but to join. But that’s it. Ukraine is the prize and the only one really worth having. Without Ukraine Putin’s pet project is, if not meaningless, severely devalued. The other former Soviet republics are like so many toes; Ukraine is an entire leg.
And Putin has lost that leg. Or at any rate, at least half of it. Moscow’s best hope scenario now is only half as promising as that posited just a year ago. It bears remembering that since Putin’s demands proved too much for Yanukovych they will be unacceptable to any other plausible government that may take power in Kiev. Putin’s hand is weaker than it seems.
Daniel Berman isn’t so sure. He imagines a scenario where Putin emerges “from this crisis having neutralized any prospect of Ukrainian NATO membership, secured Russia’s position in the Crimea, and strengthened Russian-German ties”:
Eastern Ukraine is of far greater use to Putin as a hostage for Kiev’s good behavior than as a Russian province.
The region is poor, with high unemployment, a devastated environment, and little prospect of improvement without extensive investment. Its seizure, would, as many have observed and Putin clearly comprehends, lead the rump of Ukraine into undying hostility and NATO membership, moving that alliance’s borders 400 kilometers to the East.
By contrast, leaving it in Kiev’s hands gives Putin the opportunity to pressure the Ukrainian government by threatening to engage in subversion and military action in the region, especially as its emotional and political value to both Ukraine and the West will increase the longer it remains under Kiev’s control. Putin can wield both economic pressure through Gazprom, and utilize political unrest in the East to destabilize the government in Kiev while offering the prospect of recognition if Ukraine’s leaders make their pilgrimage to Moscow to receive his forgiveness.
The Dish 