Why Run Against Obamacare?

Last week, Sargent flagged a poll finding that “Obamacare is mostly a wash” politically:

[B]arely more than a third (36 percent) say support for Obamacare would make it less likely they vote for a candidate, versus 34 percent who say “more likely.” This is overwhelmingly driven by Republicans: 70 percent of them say “less likely,” while only 35 percent of independents say the same, and moderates say they’d be marginally more likely by 35-31.

Beutler’s theory about why Republicans campaign strongly against the ACA regardless:

The Republicans are going to make gains in the Senate this cycle almost no matter what. If you’re a Republican and you know that in advance, the smart thing to do is treat a single issue as if it’s the decisive one of the campaign, everywhere, in every race. That way when it’s over you can argue that the voters vindicated your position, even if they didn’t. You can claim a mandate, even if one doesn’t exist. And you can safely bet that the political media will swallow it whole.