by Chris Bodenner
A few readers tackle a recent post:
There is much to say about Matchar’s article, but I only want to comment on one thing. She writes: “The most reliable statistics available place the number of false rape reports at between 2 and 8 percent of all rape reports. Yet most people, both in and out of the MRM [men’s rights movement] community, believe these numbers to be much higher.”
First off, “most people” believe those numbers to be much higher? Really? That is news to me, and it would probably be to “most people” I know. Moreover, there’s nothing backing that assertion, save that single survey, of which she writes that it found that “both male and female college students believe that about 50 percent of rape allegations are false.” However, if you actually read the linked-to survey, it finds that 50 percent of “intercollegiate athletes” who were “predominately male” believe that. Color me surprised that in a big group of male college athletes and the occasional woman, half of them think that rape victims are lying.
Another focuses on the “2-8 percent” statistic:
It seemed to beg the obvious question: “Does that mean that 92-98% of sex assault reports result in convictions? That seemed impossible. So I clicked through and read the report. The definition is buried pretty deep in the article, but I wanted to send it to you, because it’s a pretty key piece of context for understanding how common this actually is. The study defines “false accusation” thusly:
The determination that a report is false can then only be made when there is sufficient evidence to establish that the sexual assault did not happen (was not completed or attempted.) This does not mean that the investigation failed to prove that the sexual assault happened–in that case the investigation would simply be inconclusive or unsubstantiated.
In other words, an accusation only counts as “false” if there is demonstrable evidence if its falsity – that is, if there’s definitive evidence of deception. That leaves a huge swath of accusations that are not provably “false” but also not provably “true” (i.e. they do not result in conviction.) The article, I guess, is assuming that, out of that undetermined swath, there’s not a single false accusation. This seems an unwarranted assumption, to say the least.
So the reality is: Somewhere between 2-8% of reports are so false that it is actually possible to prove a negative – that they did NOT happen. (Note: This seems like a high number for that, no? 1 out of 20?) Plus, some other number of reports do not admit of strong proof either way, but are false. A third group of cases are true reports, but not provably so, and a fourth group results in sexual assault convictions.
The MRM is unhelpful and out of line when it makes a direct comparison between the problem of being raped and the problem of false rape accusation. Rape, sadly, happens far more, and it’s even more damaging than a false accusation. No one should dispute that. However, progressive feminists are also unhelpful and out of line when they minimize and dismiss the victims of false accusations, or when they insist that anyone who accuses someone of rape must be taken at their word.
The truth is, statistics aren’t very helpful in this area. We don’t know what happens behind closed doors and we don’t know who is telling the truth. But I do know that quoting misleading statistics while acting as if one is being reasonable and generous, as Matchar surely does, is only a more clever and more patronizing way of dismissing a movement that, whatever its faults, addresses a real and serious problem.
The Dish 