Analyzing the breakdown of last week’s UN vote to condemn Russia for violating Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Matt Ford notices that most of the world’s rising stars abstained:
Four of the five BRICS countries—Brazil, India, China, and South Africa—chose to not take a side on the resolution, as did many African, South American, and Asian countries. Some observers argue that the abstentions show a wariness among developing nations to choose sides in a confrontation between Russia and the West. “India and China have deep reservations on sovereignty and territorial integrity and in the past have not hesitated to slam US for Libya, Syria etc.,” wrote The Times of India after the vote. “With Russia doing exactly the same thing, the dilemma in the developing world is acute.” Other countries avoided participating in the vote altogether, including Iran, one of Russia’s closest allies, and Israel, one of America’s.
Suzanne Nossel argues that Obama should work on turning emerging democratic powers into anti-Putin allies:
India and Indonesia, respectively, are the world’s first and third most populous democracies, and they are centerpieces of Washington’s “pivot to Asia” and approach to handling China’s rise. Brazil and Argentina are the most influential players in Washington’s near abroad, and South Africa and Nigeria are key to countering terrorism and fostering trade and development across Africa. Reflecting their importance, the Obama administration has included these countries in an array of treaties, strategic dialogues, and commissions all aimed at improving relations — partly as a counterweight to China and Russia. …
In the drama over Ukraine and Russia’s relationship to the West, the supporting actors could ultimately matter nearly as much as the stars. Russia is boasting that it will survive the West’s sanctions because it has alternative trading partners. Having been blacklisted by the West, Putin will either be left friendless or will succeed in turning the BRICS, a coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, into a tight new clique. These countries’ warmth toward him may affect his calculus on whether to push further on eastern Ukraine or call it a day with Crimea.
The Dish 