Afghanistan Gets Out The Vote

The Economist reports that the Afghan election “was marred by sporadic violence, allegations of fraud, and other controversy – yet by some measures it was perhaps the most successful election Afghanistan has ever held”:

Before the polls opened at 7am, eager voters were already queuing outside polling centres in cities across the country. Even as rain fell across much of the country, the patient and orderly queues (somewhat of a rarity in Afghanistan) were well served by election officials who handed out plastic sheets to keep them dry. And the voters kept coming. So many came in fact that some polling centres had run out of ballots by midday.

Juan Cole lists “surprising pieces of good news” from the election:

1. The nearly 400,000 Afghanistan National Army and police forces were deployed throughout the country effectively. They stopped traffic into the capital of Kabul from afternoon on Friday, allowing the Saturday vote to avoid being disrupted. This operation was a difficult and complex one, and that the security forces were capable of it is a good sign.

2. Afghans were relatively enthusiastic about voting. Some 7 million went to the voting both out of 12 million who are eligible to vote (58%). The turnout was about twice that of the 2009 presidential [campaign].

3. Fully one third of those who voted were women. Women came out in large numbers in the big urban centers. In Taliban strongholds in the south and east, however, many had to stay home.

Liza Schuster is a bit less sanguine:

Afghanistan is still an insecure country.

The security forces did an amazing job yesterday and the people responded by turning out to vote in unexpectedly high numbers. But this was only achieved by effectively shutting down the city. Traffic was virtually non-existent. I lost count of the number of times our car was stopped and searched and our ID cards examined. Some of the voters talked of the importance of signing the Bilateral Security Agreement as soon as the new president is installed. Even given the success of yesterday’s security operation, there is a strong sense that some international forces will be needed for the foreseeable future.

Hyder Akbar went home to vote:

A phone call comes in to give us good news that people have lined up to vote in a certain area — only to be updated half an hour later that everyone has scattered after the Taliban attacked the polling station.

Another friend calls to say the Taliban have already warned him that he will be dealt with — they had heard he had been campaigning for one of the candidates. My own vote becomes an eventful event: just as I receive my ballots, another wayward missile comes flying toward the town, and everyone hunches down — another close call, but it lands in some field, and I go on to vote.

As I walk out, I notice a man vigorously trying to clean the ink off his fingertip — a sign that you have voted. Overhearing his conversation, he is telling his friend that he has to travel on the road up north and doesn’t want it chopped off — a grim reminder of how easily the tentative progress of the past decade can be erased.

The BBC explains what comes next:

Although there are eight candidates for president, only three are considered frontrunners – former foreign ministers Abdullah Abdullah and Zalmai Rassoul, and former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai. Analysts say Dr Abdullah has fought a polished campaign, Mr Ghani has strong support among the new urban youth vote, and Dr Rassoul is believed to favoured by Mr Karzai. However, no candidate is expected to secure more than the 50% of the vote needed to be the outright winner, which means there is likely to be a second round run-off on 28 May.

Max Boot calls the election a “triumph” but thinks “we should not exaggerate its likely impact”:

The three leading candidates are said to be Ashraf Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah, and Zalmai Rassoul. All three men, who have served at various times in Hamid Karzai’s cabinet, are qualified for the top job and reasonably friendly to the United States. All three have indicated they will sign the Bilateral Security Accord that Hamid Karzai negotiated. But there is a huge question as to whether any of them will be up to the job of improving one of the most corrupt and dysfunctional governments on the face of the earth and defeating one of the most potent insurgencies in the world.