Alexandra Gutierrez argues that ballot initiatives, including one on marijuana legalization, could hand Democrats an Alaskan Senate seat:
Three initiatives that were supposed to appear in the August primary have been bumped to the general election. So now, on top of deciding whether they want reelect a Democrat in a year where Republicans could seize control of Congress, Alaskans will be voting on initiatives to increase the minimum wage, to allow the sale of marijuana, and to make it harder to build an unpopular open-pit mine near the world’s largest salmon run.
Any one of those initiatives could be seen as a gift to Democrats. Together, they could boost turnout by up to 5 percent, according to political scientist Caroline Tolbert.
But Harry Enten doubts the marijuana initiative will play a big role:
[A] closer look at the evidence suggests Begich might not stand to benefit. Overall, past marijuana ballot measures haven’t meant that more young people come out to vote. This year’s senate race in Alaska would likely have to be very close for the marijuana ballot measure to make a difference.
Lastly, Bernstein points out that, if “there’s one thing certain about public policy issues, public opinion and vote choice, it’s that we don’t know why we vote the way we do”:
Issues may matter on the margins, and it’s possible that an issue will push marginal voters to show up at the polls (though we should be careful, it may be that whatever issue one’s party focuses on will do the trick). But the relationship isn’t straightforward. And just asking people about it won’t help us understand.
The Dish 