The WaPo’s midterms model gives the GOP an 82% chance of taking the Senate. The NYT’s forecast, which is named Leo, sees the election as much closer:
Josh Katz and Amanda Cox unpack the calculations:
Republicans’ chances of gaining control of the Senate have improved slightly in the time Leo has been up and running. When we launched Leo two weeks ago, Republicans had a 49 percent chance of gaining control, according to the model. Now, we give them a 55 percent chance. So why the change? Part of the reason is some positive polling they’ve had in Colorado and Alaska, but 49 percent and 55 percent really aren’t very different. … The race for Senate control really is still a tossup.
Meanwhile, Enten argues that midterms “turnout isn’t nearly as important as D.C. wags make it out to be”:
The demographics of who voted in 2012 vs. 2010 were different, but that difference didn’t make much of a difference. The reason Republicans won more votes in 2010 — and likely will in 2014 — is that voters wanted Republicans in office, not that minorities and young people didn’t turn out to vote.
The Dish 