Bouie thinks it’s possible, if not likely:
[W]hen it comes to analyzing black voters, conservatives need to stop treating them as irrational or stuck on some kind of “Democratic plantation.” Like any coherent group of citizens, black Americans have a strong sense of their individual and collective interests. And in their correct view, they do better under Democratic presidents, which contributes to their overwhelming support for Democratic politicians. Put another way, if conservatives want to make inroads with black Americans and other minorities, they have to show them they’ll succeed under Republican governance and have to deliver when the opportunity comes.
Unfortunately for the GOP, research suggests that African Americans have good reason to vote Democratic:
According to a recent paper from Zoltan L. Hajnal and Jeremy D. Horowitz – both political scientists at the University of California–San Diego – there’s clear evidence that when the nation is governed by Democrats, black well-being “improves dramatically” across multiple dimensions. Specifically, looking at data from 1948 to 2010, Hajnal and Horowitz found that “African Americans tend to experience substantial gains under Democratic presidents whereas they tend to incur significant losses or remain stagnant under Republicans.” On average, under Democratic presidents, blacks gained $895 in annual income, saw a 2.41 point drop in their poverty rate, and a 0.36 point drop in their unemployment rate. By contrast, under Republicans, blacks gained $142 a year, along with a 0.15-point increase in poverty and a 0.39-point increase in unemployment.
The Dish 