A new approach to combating the cocaine trade, embedded in peace talks between the Colombian government and FARC rebels, raises the hopes of Oliver Kaplan that “the drug war may soon be coming to an end”:
In early May, negotiators from the Colombian government and the rebel group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) reached an agreement on drug trafficking as part of their effort to end the country’s 50-year old conflict. Shifting away from old, controversial methods like crop fumigation, the new deal focuses on substituting crops, taking on organized crime and cartels, and treating drugs as a public health issue to treat addicts and reduce demand. It’s a historic move — and good news for President Juan Manuel Santos, who faces an increasingly popular opposition candidate in second-round elections on June 15.
Santos’ re-election yesterday bodes well for the peace process, which his opponent had threatened to halt:
Santos got 53 percent of the votes for candidates, against 47 percent for right-wing challenger Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, the hand-picked candidate of former two-term President Alvaro Uribe, who many considered the true challenger. More than 600,000 voters cast “blank” ballots, a protest vote for neither candidate. Zuluaga and Uribe accused Santos of selling Colombia out in slow-slogging Cuba-based negotiations, and said Zuluaga would halt the talks unless [FARC] ceased all hostilities and some of its leaders accepted jail time. Santos said the win affirmed his claim to be ably steering Colombia through a historic moment — out of a crippling conflict that has claimed more than 200,000 lives, mostly civilians.
But if coca cultivation in Colombia declines, Reid Standish suspects that Peruvians will increase theirs:
Drug researchers call this the “balloon effect” — where pressure from the authorities in one country or region pushes drug production elsewhere. Squeezing the balloon at one end causes drug producers to compensate and expand into another. Since the U.S.-led war on drugs began in the 1980s, the balloon effect has shaped the cocaine trade.
In 2013, fumigation and forced eradication of coca crops in Colombia finally hit a turning point and the South American nation bequeathed its crown as the world’s top coca producer to its neighbor, Peru. Both the United States and the U.N. declared it a milestone. Unsaid was that the Colombian government’s efforts to crack down on production — in part under the banner of Plan Colombia, the U.S.-backed effort to combat left-wing guerrillas and drug traffickers — simply shifted production to Peru.
Colombia and Peru have swapped the coca-producer champion crown for decades. In the mid-90s Peru launched an intense eradication campaign and Colombia was back on top. In 1990, Colombia was only responsible for 19 percent of the global coca market, behind top producers Bolivia and Peru. By 1997, it was the world’s top producer. See the pattern here?
The Dish 