The latest machination:
[Yesterday] the Russian president made a request to the Federation Council, the upper
house of parliament, that they revoke his right to stage a military intervention in Ukraine. [Today] they will undoubtedly approve his request, just as they approved his request for that questionable authority several months ago. Although Ukraine’s president welcomes Putin’s move as a “first practical step,” skepticism remains with good reason. After all, Russia last week began to regroup thousands of troops near the Ukrainian border, less than a month after promising to remove troops. And, the separatists, some of whom claim to be Chechen mercenaries on official orders, have an uncanny ability to get their hands on tanks, rocket launchers, and other military equipment, and earlier [yesterday] they broke a ceasefire they agreed to several days ago.
Anna Nemtsova tries to get in Putin’s head:
Why would Putin want his hands tied (however loosely)? One likely reason: He made the request a few days before European leaders are to discuss new sanctions against Russia, this time covering the banking sector. Another possibility: He can get the reversal reversed any time he wants, and may be trying, once again, to wrong-foot the West by talking conciliation while stepping up covert action to support the rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Bershidsky also makes clear why Putin’s gesture is bullshit:
Given his rubber-stamp parliament, Putin can gain permission to send troops back to Ukraine at any time. Besides, if Putin’s goal is to keep Poroshenko off balance, an invasion isn’t necessary. Russia has already succeeded in drawing out the conflict, arming rebels and making it possible for Russian citizens to fight on the separatists’ side. So much for “deceit.”
As for “bargaining,” it has now started in Donetsk, with Ukrainians from both camps searching for compromise. [Viktor] Medvedchuk’s ties to both Putin and Poroshenko — along with the possible backing of one of Ukraine’s richest men, Rinat Akhmetov — suggests a resolution with the armed rebels is in sight. The rebels have been useful to Putin, but they are unreliable over the long term. The Kremlin prefers to work with familiar pro-Russian politicians and businessmen in Ukraine’s east to make sure Ukraine doesn’t end up in the Western bloc.
In effect, Putin is now ready to enter the quiet phase of his Ukraine operation. The West will acquiesce to his game — but only after claiming that sanctions have been a success.
Keating’s take:
With more international sanctions potentially on the way, Putin lately seems to be playing the unlikely role of good cop in this conflict, voicing support for reconciliation and peace while the pro-Russian rebels keep fighting with what certainly seems like tacit support from Moscow, and his foreign minister and the national gas monopoly keep up the pressure on Kiev. Some of the rebel groups may also have gone rogue – some members of the recently formed militia group Russian Orthodox Army recently expressing irritation with Putin’s on-again-off-again support.
In any event, the good news is that the worst-case scenario – full Russian invasion – now looks extremely unlikely. But the volatile mess in Eastern Ukraine still looks a long way from resolution.
(Photo from Getty)
The Dish 