John Kerry rushed off to Cairo last night to try and broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, but it’s not at all clear that he can get the deal he wants:
Kerry reiterated Sunday what Obama told Netanyahu on Friday: that the US supports a return to the 2012 cease-fire that halted rocket fire into Israel from Gaza. Hamas says Israel did not hold up its side of that agreement. And the militant group that governs Gaza is also deeply suspicious of the Egyptian government, which – since the 2012 cease-fire – has banned the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. But just returning to the 2012 agreement is unlikely to happen, says WINEP’s [Eric] Trager. “Egypt today is not going to accede to anything that would allow Hamas to come out of this strengthened,” he says. Egypt is also not likely to accept opening the Gaza-Egypt border at Rafah, another Hamas demand.
As of this writing, the Cairo visit has produced no breakthroughs. Steven Cook argues that Egypt is a terrible interlocutor, given that Sisi’s regime actually benefits from the conflict:
The Egyptians seem to believe that a continuation of the fighting — for now — best serves their interests.
Given the intense anti-Muslim Brotherhood and anti-Hamas propaganda to which Egyptians have been subjected and upon which Sisi’s legitimacy in part rests, the violence in Gaza serves both his political interests and his overall goals. In an entirely cynical way, what could be better from where Sisi sits? The Israelis are battering Hamas at little or no cost to Egypt. In the midst of the maelstrom, the new president, statesman-like, proposed a cease-fire. If the combatants accept it, he wins. If they reject it, as Hamas did — it offered them very little — Sisi also wins.
Pointing to signs that Israel is reluctant to escalate the conflict further, John Cassidy raises hopes for a ceasefire soon:
Reports from Israel suggest the I.D.F. has been surprised (and even impressed) by the ferocity and effectiveness of the Hamas fighters, and that there is a mounting feeling that, with seven more Israeli soldiers having been killed in the past twenty-four hours, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will soon be faced with the choice of escalating the military campaign or declaring victory and withdrawing. “In view of the stiff resistance put up by Hamas, the level of destruction, if fighting continues, may reach that of Beirut in 2006,” Amos Harel wrote in Haaretz.
Is Netanyahu prepared for that? Is Israel? Since the Prime Minister of Israel has insisted all along that the aims of Operation Protective Edge are limited—degrading Hamas’s infrastructure and reducing its ability to launch rocket attacks—he seems to have some wiggle room. On Tuesday, the I.D.F. announced that it had already uncovered fourteen tunnels in the Gaza Strip, some of which were twenty-five metres deep and reinforced with concrete. Having destroyed these tunnels and foiled, or so he claims, several terrorist attacks on Israeli communities close to the border, Netanyahu may be able to claim that the military escapade has accomplished its aims, and he may be able to bring it to an end. That, at least, is what Kerry and the embattled residents of Gaza will be hoping for.
Michael Totten suspects that Hamas is also ready to declare “victory” and agree to a truce, but is pessimistic that this war will bring the parties any closer to a permanent peace than the last war, or the one before that:
By the time the Israelis finish their work, Hamas may have killed enough Israelis and fired enough of its rockets that it can save face with an empty “victory” boast despite losing so many people, despite emptying its vast arsenal with little to show for it, and despite having [its] tunnels collapsed. Then its leaders will agree to a cease-fire. It doesn’t matter that no one will believe Hamas won. Hamas just needs to be able to say it. The Israelis and Palestinians won’t be an inch closer to peace after that happens, but at least the conflict will go back into the refrigerator. It will start up again at some point, though, and we’ll take another ride on the deadly and stupid merry-go-round, so savor the calm while it lasts.
The Dish 