Does This Look Like Humanitarian Aid To You?

by Dish Staff

Jeremy Bender scrutinizes the Russian aid convoy en route to eastern Ukraine:

The trucks of supplies have been joined by helicopters, surface-to-air missile systems, and possible anti-aircraft weapons systems. According to The Interpreter, this weapon [in the tweet above] is possibly a 9K22 Tunguska battery, which had been mounted onto a Kamaz truck. Tunguskas are anti-aircraft weapons that can fire both missiles and 30mm guns. They are capable of shooting down low-altitude aircraft, although the gun can also be used against ground troops. … The Russian convoy has raised a number of red flags, even aside from this heavy contingent of guns and armor. The convoy has failed to abide by conditions put in place by both Ukraine and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) — the convoy is traveling under the ICRC flag, yet the organization has not been able to verify the contents of the trucks.

If it really is just a humanitarian convoy and not a Trojan Horse as the Ukrainian government believes, Linda Kinstler considers what Russia stands to gain by sending aid to Ukraine:

Kremlin propaganda portrays the Kiev government as fascist junta that’s committing humanitarian atrocities to its own people, oligating Russia to step in and defend its brothers over the border. Rostov, the Russian town through which the convoy is rumored to be traveling, has been trumpeted in the Russian press as the place where some 13,000 Ukrainian refugees have fled – almost certainly a huge overestimation. A relative of mine who lives there told me that volunteers have been going door to door soliciting food donations for the refugees, and that the local population has been mobilized in support of Russia’s humanitarian mission. Now, Russians will be able to cheer on the humanitarian convoy as it passes through their towns, bolstering Putin’s already sky-high approval ratings at home. It will also be a welcome sight for those in Ukraine who feel abandoned by Poroshenko’s government. “The population of Donetsk is going to look out and say, ‘the Russians care about us,’” says Kipp.

Sending the convoy also buys Putin insurance against the separatists, who could very well bring their fight back across the border if things don’t go their way in Ukraine.

Previous Dish on the possibility of a Russian invasion here and here.