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Haleh Esfandiari mulls the mixed signals Rouhani sent this week while in New York:
In an interview with NBC’s Ann Curry, President Rouhani questioned U.S. motives in moving against ISIS; he called the U.S.-led coalition “ridiculous” and pooh-poohed the effectiveness of an air campaign. President Rouhani asserted that the U.S. is bringing together the very countries that had funded, supported and armed ISIS militants in the first place. He did not specifically endorse Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but both he and Mr. Zarif have said that ISIS could not be defeated without the Syrian government’s cooperation, and both have described Mr. Assad’s opponents as terrorists. As to prospects for better Iranian-U.S. relations, Mr. Rouhani suggested that this might occur not on his watch but under his successor or his successor’s successor.
Yet in a breakfast with journalists in New York on Tuesday, President Rouhani seemed to adopt a different tone. He said that airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria lacked “legal standing,“ but he did not press the point. (The Syrian government said that the U.S. had informed it of the intended airstrikes, making its official position more moderate than Iran’s.) President Rouhani also predicted that Iran-U.S. relations would change dramatically if a nuclear agreement is reached, and that things “will not go back to the past” even if an agreement is not reached.
Speaking to the United Nations General Assembly yesterday, Rouhani said that a nuclear deal would “open the way for broader international collaboration” on ISIS. But Tom Rogan is pessimistic about Iran joining the fight against ISIS:
Some suggest that Iran could be enlisted in the fight against the Islamic State. Practically and in the short term, they’re right. But the underlying reality renders this idea absurd. Iran’s leaders have no interest in cooling the sectarian conflict that fuels the group’s jihad. Rather, Iran’s security forces seek to expand Ayatollah Khamenei’s power, a cause completely at odds with Sunni empowerment, let alone a functional Iraq.
Laura Rozen reports on the nuclear negotiations:
Limited progress has been made in narrowing differences towards reaching a final Iran nuclear accord, but significant gaps remain, a western diplomat said here Friday. Reaching a final deal by the November 24 deadline is “doable, but difficult,” he said. “On the core issues, we remain pretty far apart,” the western diplomat at the talks, speaking not for attribution to discuss the sensitive negotiations, told a small group of journalists Sept. 26 after eight days of talks here between Iran and six world powers. “On enrichment, we are not there yet,” the western diplomat. “There are significant gaps, but we are still expecting significant moves from the Iranian side,” he said. The diplomat’s comments came amid conflicting signals about whether Iran and the six world powers had begun to slightly narrow differences on the key issue of the size of Iran’s enrichment capacity in a final nuclear accord.
Bloomberg View’s editors remain hopeful:
Obviously the gap in expectations is vast. But it’s a mistake to focus so intently on the centrifuge numbers, turning them into destructive measures of victory or defeat, when “breakout” depends not only on producing fuel for a bomb, but also on assembling and testing the delivery mechanisms and warheads, as an excellent new paper from the Washington-based Arms Control Association explains. To prevent Iran from developing a clandestine program that could put together the whole package, the U.S. and its allies mainly need an intrusive inspection program.
A potential phased agreement that would satisfy both sides could, for example, give Iran some of the centrifuges it wants but require that it stockpile uranium in powder, rather than gas, form so as to expand the breakout period. Other creative solutions have been floated, too. Where the P5+1 should not compromise is in requiring on-demand access to Iranian facilities, including military ones, to conduct inspections.
Paul Richter’s dispatch doesn’t inspire confidence:
While officials insisted that the discussions have yielded some new ideas, there is less agreement now than there was in July on some issues, such as how Iran will limit output from the heavy-water nuclear facility at Arak. The two sides disagree not only on sticky political issues, but also on matters of basic nuclear physics, said one participant in the negotiations.
Alireza Nader argues that Iran’s leaders badly need a deal:
Iran’s unemployment rate keeps rising, despite reports of reduced inflation and greater investor confidence. Many Iranians are anxious for Rouhani to produce results, but will they blame the United States if Rouhani walks away from the negotiations? Despite his campaign promises to reduce repression, the human-rights situation in Iran is as bad as it was under Rouhani’s predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Washington Post’s correspondent in Iran, Jason Rezaian, has disappeared and is reported to be undergoing “interrogation,” though it is unclear why. The Rouhani government has demonstrated its inability to prevent increased government repression. Of course, Rouhani does not deserve all the blame, though he is the one who promised change. A failure in nuclear negotiations will not resolve Iran’s political division and could make the economy even worse than before.
At best, many Iranians could lose any sense of hope they felt when Rouhani was elected. And, as Iranian history has shown over and over again, the Iranian people tend to see civil disobedience, street protests and even violent insurrection as possible alternatives to fruitless participation in electoral politics.
Also, during his visit, Rouhani ducked questions about human rights abuses in Iran, including the arrest of several young people who appeared in an online tribute to Pharrell’s “Happy.” Ronald Bailey elaborates:
[Fareed] Zakaria asked Rouhani about the prosecution of six Iranian youths who put together a YouTube dance video to the tune of Pharrell William’s song “Happy” as part a fad sweeping the globe. The seven youths were initially sentenced to six months in prison and 91 lashes for their offense, but those punishments have been suspended on condition that they commit no more offenses in the next three years. Oddly, at the time of the arrest Rouhani’s twitter account noted, “Happiness is our people’s right. We shouldn’t be too hard on behaviors caused by joy.” Rouhani responded to Zakaria that Iran has an independent judiciary, and if what the youths did was legally not allowed in Iran, then they broke the law. “What happened, happened,” said Rouhani.
The Dish 