Burkina Faso’s president, Blaise Compaoré, stepped down today after 27 years in power, in the face of widespread protests – and the ablaze of parliament – against his plans to change the constitution and allow himself to run for yet another five-year term:
The announcement from Mr. Compaoré came on the fourth day of turmoil in Ouagadougou, the capital, as military commanders met behind closed doors and demonstrators urged them to oust the president. His departure was the culmination of 24 hours of frantic maneuvering. Mr. Compaoré declared martial law for a few hours on Thursday, then seemed to relent, offering negotiations on a transitional government and rescinding his martial law decree. …
Opposition to the president’s plans for another term had been building for weeks. Anger exploded Thursday as protesters stormed the Parliament building, bursting past police lines to prevent lawmakers from voting on a draft law that would have allowed Mr. Compaoré to run again next year. Thousands rampaged through Ouagadougou, burning the homes of presidential aides and relatives and looting state broadcasting facilities. Social media sites showed images of demonstrators toppling a statue of Mr. Compaoré.
Adam Taylor gauges whether Compaoré’s ouster “could ultimately be the spark for something bigger”, spreading to other African countries with long-entrenched autocrats:
“In Burkina Faso now it looks like citizens are making forceful demands for respect of democratic rules,” Pierre Englebert, a Professor of African Politics and Development at Pomona College explained in an e-mail. “That would be an unusual degree of political ownership. And it might well give hope to movements elsewhere, first of all in the Democratic Republic of Congo where things have also been coming to a boil.”
Notably, Vital Kamerhe, leader of Congo’s Union pour la Nation Congolaise, has tweeted a message of solidarity for Burkina Faso’s protesters, saying they are in the “same struggle.” And while many analysts are hesitant to make the comparison, some Burkinabè protesters have likened the protest to the Arab uprisings that began in 2010. … Either way, the comparison with the Arab Spring might not be a good thing: Like the protests in the Arab world, even if Burkina Faso’s protests end up being successful in their immediate aim, they may also carry with them a lot of risks and uncertainty.
Paul Melly’s analysis, written before Compaoré stepped down, focused on the possibility that other African leaders might try to relax their own term limits, even though such schemes have not always worked out well for those who tried them:
In Niger, a third term bid by former president Mamadou Tandja provoked his removal by the army in 2010, followed by a transition to new elections. In Senegal, President Abdoulaye Wade did manage to change the rules, only to be punished by the voters with crushing defeat in the subsequent election in 2012. However, political culture in central Africa and the Great Lakes is rather different and authoritarian traditions are still influential in some countries. Few would bet against [Rwanda’s Paul] Kagame or Congo-Brazzaville’s Denis Sassou-Nguesso successfully pushing through a rule change to open their way to further terms of office. Burundi’s Pierre Nkurunziza and Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo might also be tempted to follow suit – although for them it could be a higher risk exercise, governing countries with vocal civil society and state machines of limited establishment power.
The Dish 