Neil Irwin considers legislation that the GOP and Obama might agree on. A big first test:
One way or another, the debt ceiling will need to be raised sometime in the first part of 2015 to prevent a government default, and deals will need to be made to continue funding the federal government without the high drama of standoffs like that over the debt ceiling in 2011, the “fiscal cliff” of late 2012 and the shutdown in 2013.
It will pit two sides of the G.O.P. against each other. One team of Republican leadership seeks to bolster the party’s brand in the run-up to 2016 elections and is responsive to business interests who prefer stability. The other is the harder-right contingent of the caucus that wants to try to shut down Obamacare at any cost. Presidential politics may come into play as well, as potential candidates like Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky push for a harder-edged approach than that preferred by the majority leader Mitch McConnell. (“Let me be clear: There will be no shutdowns and no default on the national debt,” Mr. McConnell said Wednesday in his appearance in Louisville).
Howard Gleckman isn’t betting on tax reform:
Everyone says they want tax reform but once past that rhetoric, they agree on very little. President Obama says he supports corporate reform. Cruz wants a flat tax. Paul Ryan, who wants to be the new chair of the House Ways & Means Committee, favors broad-based overhaul rather than corporate reform alone. House Speaker John Boehner says he favors tax reform but when presented with a plan by Ways and Means Chair Dave Camp earlier this year, Boehner ran for the hills. On top of that, Democrats and Republicans are completely at loggerheads over whether reform should cut taxes, raise them, or leave them roughly the same. Other than that, a deal is imminent.
Republicans may have better luck on Keystone XL:
The new Senate Republican majority creates an opportunity for likely Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to force a vote on the proposed Keystone XL pipeline he’s been waiting years to hold. By The Huffington Post’s count, the new Senate will have at least 61 votes in favor of a measure forcing the pipeline’s approval — a filibuster-proof majority.
Plumer sizes up the Keystone fight:
[O]ne big question is whether President Obama would veto. Some onlookers are skeptical he could hold out forever. “People are fed up on Keystone,” an aide to a moderate Democratic senator told my colleague Ezra Klein. “I don’t know how Keystone isn’t just approved if Republicans take over.”
A lot may depend on the form that the bill takes. If Republicans sent a standalone pro-Keystone bill to the White House, Obama could veto rather easily. But if it was attached to a larger budget bill? If a government shutdown was potentially at stake? That’s tougher.
Trade is another area where bipartisan agreement is possible. Heather Timmons thinks the GOP victory is “good news for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed free-trade agreement between a dozen countries that excludes China”:
Republicans are big fans of the TPP, which would drop trade tariffs and regulatory barriers among the participating countries. Rand Paul, the Republican senator from Kentucky, promoted the TPP last week at a speech in New York, saying: “Instead of just talking about a so-called ‘pivot to Asia,’ the Obama administration should prioritize negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership by year’s end.” TPP member nations are using the APEC summit this week in Beijing as a chance to meet on the sidelines, and plan to discuss the pact Nov. 8.
Actually, Obama already supports the TPP, but key Democrats have blocked the pact, opposing fast-tracked trade agreements over concerns they would send more manufacturing jobs overseas, and in particular hurt the auto industry. Now, Obama may be able to “ride the Republican wave” to get trade deals passed, as Foreign Policy puts it.
Regardless of the issues under debate, Jacob Weisberg is hopeful that the gridlock will ease:
Until this year, the biggest hazard to Republican incumbents came from more extreme Tea Party conservatives. But in this year’s primaries the Tea Party’s power began to wane, as money from wealthy donors flowed to old stalwarts such as Thad Cochran of Mississippi and Pat Roberts of Kansas who were better positioned to keep their strongholds out of Democratic hands. This will be even more true in 2016, since turnout is far larger, and the electorate much more Democratic, in presidential election cycles.
If you are a Republican incumbent who feels that the greatest threat to your job comes from your right, then you take a big risk when you side with Obama about anything.
If, on the other hand, your principal worry is losing to a Democrat, you have an increased incentive to strike deals with the opposition on issues where Democratic positions are more popular than Republican ones.
The Dish 