Author: Andrew Sullivan

PENNSYLVANIA IN THE BALANCE

David Broder provides some useful details on a critical swing state.

THAT SIMPLE QUESTION: Thanks for all your emails about why the Bush war-plan did not even try to secure many of the Saddam weapons sites that might have contained WMDs and actually did contain ammunition that was subsequently looted. I’m sorry to say no one has a persuasive answer. One option is that the military was so intent on decapitating the regime that they ignored these real potential threats, regarding them as less of a priority. But wasn’t the entire point of the invasion to prevent loose nukes, chems and bios from getting to terrorists? Another option is that there were simply too few troops to do all that needed to be done. But that ignores the fact that these weapons sites were left unguarded for weeks, while the borders were essentially open. Some of you, of course, think that the reason is more obvious and devious than that:

It’s unsettling to consider, but it is apparent that the invasion proceeded with no concern for the possibility of WMD used against our troops, no concern for the possibility that Saddam could pass WMD on to terrorists as an option of last resort, and no concern for the possibility that terrorists could stumble upon WMD in the chaos of regime change. This suggests to me that the war planners didn’t believe there were any WMD to fear.

So why were soldiers given chemical suits? Here’s another thought:

I was asking myself questions similar to the ones you raise in response to Bremer’s admission, but they were stimulated by the Duelfer report instead of the Bremer gaffe. My understanding is that while it debunks the claims that Iraq had an active weapons program, it leaves open the question of whether or not stockpiles of weapons were removed from Iraq prior to the invasion. Please tell me I’m wrong about this. Imagine if weapons were spirited out of Iraq before we had even had the opportunity to implement a good plan to secure the borders. The fact is that we’ve traded a relatively mild uncertainty about Iraq’s WMD for a horrifying uncertainty about them. The only thing that is certain is that they are not where we can do anything about them. Nothing would make me happier than to be corrected on this point.

Me too. I refuse to believe that the administration lied. Which leaves the incompetence explanation intact.

EMAIL OF THE DAY

“Kerry’s conduct in this debate adds to the impression that he would make a competent President and able commander in Chief. Kerry’s task is no longer to convince people that Bush is a poor President, despite his supposed charm and whatever sentimental memory of his strength from the fall of 2001. People are seeing all of Bush’s shortcomings. Kerry needs to “close the sale”, and his debate performance tonight helps. People are still accumulating their impression of the man — he seems steady, smart, less political and more substantive, less doctrinaire than they have been led to believe. For many people, this is the fourth hour that they have spent with him, and I think that he is wearing well.
It doesn’t help that Bush’s credibility is now invested in Kerry as being an awful liberal and flip-flopper. I suspect many people are saying that Kerry doesn’t seem to be who Bush says he is, and what does that say about Bush?”

BUSH’S TIMBER COMPANY

Kerry was right. Money quote:

President Bush himself would have qualified as a “small business owner” under the Republican definition, based on his 2001 federal income tax returns. He reported $84 of business income from his part ownership of a timber-growing enterprise. However, 99.99% of Bush’s total income came from other sources that year. (Bush also qualified as a “small business owner” in-2000 based on $314 of-“business income,” but not in-2002 and 2003 when he reported his timber income as “royalties” on a different tax schedule.)

On this point, and many others, Bush simply didn’t seem as well-informed as Kerry. That doesn’t matter a huge amount generally, but when you have Bush’s current credibility gap, it doesn’t help. —