Palin’s Chances, Ctd

by Patrick Appel

An early Iowa poll puts Palin in fourth. Weigel discounts the poll. Nevertheless:

If we accept this poll result, we know that Palin is in a relatively worse place than the 2008 Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton. At this point in the campaign, Clinton had good leads in Iowa polling based on name recognition and based on enthusiasm, generally, that Democrats felt for her. Palin has the universal name recognition, she has the enthusiasm, but she doesn't have the Hillary strength. I'd guess that's a function of Republican doubts that she can be a credible candidate and president.

Running Towards America

by Patrick Appel

Douthat contends that America Muslims need extra help assimilating. Jamelle Bouie fires back. Bernstein moderates:

I think both of them are missing the main actors here: the immigrants themselves, who in almost all cases have been pretty desperate to assimilate as quickly as possible.  That was true of the great immigration waves in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and it's true of the great immigration wave now.  Of course, each group has had various cultural bits and pieces they keep with them (bits and pieces which generally are gobbled up by the larger American culture, so that everyone eats tacos and bagels), and each group has minorities within their minority who resist assimilation, keeping the old language and practices alive (although often radically altered, sometimes without anyone realizing it) even as most of the community drifts — runs — towards America.

Sarah Owns Levi

by Chris Bodenner

Gryphen highlights this passage in the Bristol-Levi custody agreement:

The parties agree that they shall not allow the child to visit with, or interact with, any family member who publicly … or in front of the child, criticizes the other parent or the other parent's family.

Italics mine. So it appears Palin has officially codified her blackmail of Levi. Mercede reacts to the agreement:

For awhile now I have been trying to get a copy of the deposition that I gave in Anchorage several months ago concerning Levi and Bristol’s custody case. During the deposition Bristol’s attorney, Thomas Van Flein, asked very few questions about Tripp or Levi’s parenting, and instead he used the opportunity to try and intimidate me and to find out what I know about Sarah and Todd.

The Cultural Imperialism Of Poking

by Chris Bodenner

Alexia Tsotsis likes this music video:

It used to be that folks overseas would get their mass pop culture fix from old episodes of “Baywatch” and “Friends". Now that the Internet has replaced television as culture’s primary mode of discourse, our currently most prevalent cultural artifacts (the “Like” button, LOLcats, @oldspice) have also permeated the arts on a global scale, most recently in the shockingly slick “N’Importe Comment” music video from French rappers Orelsan and The Toxic Avenger.

Europopped points out:

Extras in the video are on Facebook. How do I know? I looked a few up. Just check out the names (you might know some of them, I did) and see if they'll friend you.

And of course you watched this music video on YouTube, not MTV.

How Is Everyone Middle-Class?

by Patrick Appel

Last week John Avalon sympathized with families making $250,000 a year. Derek Thompson needled him in response:

I don't doubt it can be challenging to put two kids through private school and pay a mortgage on $250,000 a year in an expensive urban area, but I'm not convinced that those families' experience should guide our tax policy. Six million tax filers, or four percent of the country, bring home between $200,000 and $500,000 in cash income, according to the Tax Policy Center. They earn 15 percent of total income and pay 18 percent of total taxes.

His addendum:

I know it's polite to say we're all middle class until our yearly income adds a seventh digit, but really. If the 95th percentile is the middle class, does that make the median income earner upper-lower class?

My theory is that families tend to socialize with families who make a little more and a little less than they do. A family earning $250,000 a year likely has a number of friends that make around that amount. They probably also know a number of families making $300,000 to $400,000 a year and number of families making $100,000 to $200,000 a year. Even if an American is in the 95th percentile nationally, they are likely to feel middle-class in relation to peers.

The Global War on Terror

by Conor Friedersdorf

The New York Times reports:

In roughly a dozen countries — from the deserts of North Africa, to the mountains of Pakistan, to former Soviet republics crippled by ethnic and religious strife — the United States has significantly increased military and intelligence operations, pursuing the enemy using robotic drones and commando teams, paying contractors to spy and training local operatives to chase terrorists. The White House has intensified the Central Intelligence Agency’s drone missile campaign in Pakistan, approved raids against Qaeda operatives in Somalia and launched clandestine operations from Kenya. The administration has worked with European allies to dismantle terrorist groups in North Africa, efforts that include a recent French strike in Algeria. And the Pentagon tapped a network of private contractors to gather intelligence about things like militant hide-outs in Pakistan and the location of an American soldier currently in Taliban hands. While the stealth war began in the Bush administration, it has expanded under President Obama, who rose to prominence in part for his early opposition to the invasion of Iraq. Virtually none of the newly aggressive steps undertaken by the United States government have been publicly acknowledged. In contrast with the troop buildup in Afghanistan, which came after months of robust debate, for example, the American military campaign in Yemen began without notice in December and has never been officially confirmed.

It's a strange political landscape indeed where a bestselling author can assert in the pages of National Review Online that the President of the United States is allied with Islamist radicals in their grand jihad, even as that same president leads a global effort to kill al Qaeda operatives. I wonder if we aren't seeing the worst of all worlds here: the opposition party can neither help President Obama to carry out this far reaching effort, nor oppose it due to prudential concerns about executive power, because merely acknowledging that he is aggressively fighting terrorists undermines the fantastical narrative that he is soft on jihad.

Democrats are as silent about ongoing military operations in countries where we haven't declared war, or even debated it. So perhaps it's more helpful to see this through an institutional lens. As Gene Healy pointed out in a characteristically great column, our modern legislators are derelict in their duties. "The Constitution gives Congress vast powers over war and peace, and charges it with making the laws of the land," he wrote. "Yet our feckless legislators prefer to punt the hard decisions to the president and the permanent bureaucracy, even if it leaves the rest of us mired in uncertainty and crushing debt."

I am persuadable, though as yet unconvinced, that the imperatives of the modern terrorist threat requires covert military action. And I certainly cheer when I read about the death of high-ranking al Qaeda officials, whether in Iraq or Yemen. Maybe a policy like the one the Obama Administration is pursuing would make sense after careful reflection.

The problem is that the benefits of this approach are speculative, whereas its drawbacks are demonstrated by ample evidence. In the past, Presidents of the United States have proven that the executive branch can be corrupted by the ability to wage undeclared wars without Congressional oversight. At the very least, President Obama should be subject to stronger oversight and real checks on his power if this is America's chosen course.

There is also the likelihood of blowback, and the inevitable unintended consequences of mucking about abroad. Says the New York Times later in that same article, "some of the central players of those days have returned to take on supporting roles in the shadow war. Michael G. Vickers, who helped run the C.I.A.’s campaign to funnel guns and money to the Afghanistan mujahedeen in the 1980s and was featured in the book and movie 'Charlie Wilson’s War,' is now the top Pentagon official overseeing Special Operations troops around the globe." Would we run those guns and money to the mujahedeen if we had it to do over again with the benefit of hindsight?

It's especially interesting to discuss this policy at a time when so much of the right is insisting that we return to the vision of government laid out by the Founders. Needless to say, a president who wages clandestine wars on multiple continents is incompatible with the founding vision of the office, the ways it was designed to be checked, and its enumerated limits.

A Way Forward With Drugs, Ctd

Marijuana

by Patrick Appel

Mark Kleiman continues to argue against commercial cannabis. He still wants a "grow your own" policy:

The rate of problem use among cannabis users is lower than the rate of problem drinking among drinkers (lifetime risk of about 10% v. lifetime risk of at least 15%) but that's under conditions of illegality and high price. The risks of chronic heavy cannabis use aren't as dramatic as the risks of chronic heavy drinking – the stuff doesn't kill neurons or rot your liver, and generates less crazy behavior than beer – but that doesn't make those risks negligible. Ask any parent whose fifteen-year-old has decided that cannabis is more fun than geometry. Of the 10% of cannabis smokers who become heavy daily smokers for a while, the median duration of the first spell of heavy use (not counting the risks of relapse) is 44 months. That's not a small chunk to take out a lifetime, especially a young lifetime.

Cannabis isn't harmful enough to be worth banning. But that doesn't mean that it's safe to give America's marketing geniuses a new vice to peddle.  

Kleiman has been beating this drum for a long time. I don't have a problem with "grow your own" in theory but worry that prohibiting commercial cannabis will sustain the black-market. What are the other unintended consequences?

“Depressing Because It Is So Persuasive” Ctd

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by Chris Bodenner

A reader writes:

I teach high school in a racially diverse district, and think that anyone who has spent some time in the classroom can clearly see McWhortor and Wax's points.  One way to measure the effect of whatever we want to call this "value problem" is how it ultimately transcends race. Thug culture, and the other conditions that Wax laments, bleed over into white culture, and the values replicate themselves.  For many students of all ethnicities, it has simply become cool to be an uneducated thug. I don't think it is too much of stretch to see the devaluation of "learning, work and marriage" in many of the arguments of the (overwhelmingly white) far right.  Somehow thuggery has become a cultural meme that is undermining the human capital of the country as a whole. The same goes for teen pregnancy.

Another writes:

Reading McWhorter, he brings to mind an old paradox of the right.  There are two sincere, humanitarian tenets among many who call themselves conservatives.  One tenet holds that dysfunctional societies cannot be made whole by throwing endless stacks of cash at them, even if historical forces originally created the present mess.  The other tenet holds that we have an obligation to countries we’ve invaded to throw money at the problem until the society is made whole.  Perhaps there is a way to reconcile these two beliefs, but I haven’t found it. 

Another:

To all the readers saying, "But you don't understand how hard it is being in the impoverished urban communities,"  I have to ask them: "How is it fundamentally different from the experience of the rural white poor, or the urban white poor?"   It isn't. 

I grew up in the housing projects of New Hampshire, and now live on the skirts of the urban projects in Boston.   I know friends whose families live in the projects here in Boston.   I see the exact same dynamics at work.   I've seen it in the white urban poor, black urban poor, and from my own history in the white rural poor.   But the rural poor do not have access to public transit or urban densities to explore other means of employment, education, and enrichment.   The ones who escape their impoverished communities are the ones who succeed.   The ones who stay behind get sucked into the same downward spirals.

I lived in the same dysfunctional communities and had the same hopelessness.   White, black, brown, pink … the issues are the same and the solution is similar: Get out of your communities.   It is the community that holds people back – the group think, the rampant pessimism, and myopia.   Get over yourself – but most of all, get out.