Author: Andrew Sullivan

Saved From A Second Depression?

A paper by Alan S. Blinder and Mark Zandi is pinging around the economics blogs. From the NYT:

In a new paper, the economists argue that without the Wall Street bailout, the bank stress tests, the emergency lending and asset purchases by the Federal Reserve, and the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus program, the nation’s gross domestic product would be about 6.5 percent lower this year. In addition, there would be about 8.5 million fewer jobs, on top of the more than 8 million already lost; and the economy would be experiencing deflation, instead of low inflation…

The full paper is here (pdf). Avent gives a tentative response. Stephen Spruiell thinks it is "still pretty early in the game to be evaluating what effects the bailouts, the Fed interventions, and the stimulus actually had'. Delong's reading:

The hard part of it, of course, is figuring out what would have happened to the flow-of-funds through financial markets in the absence of TARP, of quantitative easing, and of other extraordinary financial policy interventions. That they were, collectively, about twice as big as the ARRA smells right to me, but the only pieces of information I have to support that are even shakier than back-of-the-envelope calculations.

The Neocon Splutter, Ctd

Barry Rubin joins the chorus from the neocon right claiming that "Turkey is on the enemy side." It was once a given on the right that keeping Turkey close to the West was essential in defusing Islamism and winning the war on terror. But once Turkey took on Israel, that ended, because the war many neocons are waging is for Israel, right or wrong, not the West at large. Neo-fascist Andy McCarthy calls Cameron a "disgrace". Stark raving bonkers Melanie Phillips has a herd of cows:

It is astounding to hear a Conservative Prime Minister mouth such infantile leftism. If it weren’t for Obama’s example, it would be unbelievable that any serious politician could spout such drivel.

He really struck a chord, didn't he? Keep it up, prime minister. Advance the interests of Britain, and resist the war of civilizations the far right wants to gin up. We will only defeat Islamism if we keep an open hand stretched to Islam. Isolating and demonizing Turkey's evolution as a regional Muslim power – prepared to be Israel's ally if Israel stops the persecution and colonization of the Palestinans – is about as dumb a geo-strategic move as one could imagine.

Asexual Reproduction In Government

IOZ's pithy argument:

Institutions, like organisms, seek survival for themselves and their descendants. One of the conceits at the heart of most theories of government, which has perhaps reached its apogee in this age of technocratic, managerial liberalism, is the idea that institutions are fundamentally instrumental. To an anarchist, this is a flatly silly proposition. (An analogue might be a Christian trying to get an atheist to concede that life has a “purpose.”) Institutions aren’t simple tools. Organizations aren’t implements. And when a sufficient number of institutions coexist, they function like an ecosystem. They neither work nor do not work. They survive, reproduce, replace, predate, evolve, alter, consume, and grow. They are no more responsive to the individuals contained within than a person is to a single cell.

E.D. Kain fleshes this thought out:

All institutions whether private or public seek their own self-preservation. The problem with government institutions is that they persist because of politics rather than any rational decision-making process. The big public unions exist and grow in strength because they are so important electorally. The big federal departments exist because politicians must always do something to survive the next election cycle (read: spend more!).

But since government is also necessary, the task is to determine what institutions need to be done away with, how to sunset them so they do not strangle the whole, rather than to rail at all of them. My thoughts on this inevitably stray to special interest groups as well. At what point do, say, HRC and AIPAC and the NAACP end up simply perpetuating themselves and their own leaders (invariably factions of the large, amorphous groups they claim to represent) rather than remaining focused on the task in front of them?

The View From Your Window Contest, Ctd

A reader writes:

Most of the time when I read blog comments I am disheartened by the sheer level of stupidity in the world. However, when I read the comments on your blog (edited, but still), I am reassured by the knowledge that there are thoughtful, intelligent readers out there. This contest alone proves that.

I’m constantly staggered by the sheer quality of writing and global knowledge of Dish readers. Another writes:

For the sake of truthfulness, your reader did NOT have a picture of the window from which the photo of the fountain was taken.

He or she has a picture of the building on the right, as evidenced by the two cars parked onLausanne_Cité the spots  behind the fountain, and the 1728 just visible on the lower right. The original picture was taken by my brother Grégoire, just a few days after you posted the window view of my backyard in Los Angeles last year. He was a bit crushed that his didn’t make the cut then. He’s now very proud!

He has since moved to another part of Lausanne with his wife and their adorable one year old, and they enjoy a breathtaking view of Lake Geneva and the French Alps! This week, they’re vacationing in Ticino, the Italian-speaking part of Switzerland – without internet access, voluntarily – and I’ve been texting them updates on the contest!

Here’s a shot of the building it was taken from (Rue Cité-Devant #12), with the gorgeous cathedral in the background. The fountain and plaza are between the two buildings on the right (you can recognize the stone pattern on the building which is sticking out).

Phew! Glad that’s clarified. Now back to more important world issues.

If He Were President

Wyclef Jean is considering a presidential run in his homeland of Haiti. Daniel Berger, editor of Rap Genius, tries to decipher his policy positions:

Issue: Crime
Rhyme: "All my gangs put the peace sign up now" ("Rebel Music")
Policy: Gang violence is a major issue in Haiti. An anti-violence initiative would go a long way. (However, on "Ready or Not" he raps "if I could rule the world / Everyone would have a gun in the ghetto of course," so he may believe that personal responsibility is somewhat more effective than gun control.)

Issue: Sex Education
Rhyme: "That's Clef in the drop Lex / Keep the prophylactics for safe sex" ("Pussycat")
Policy: Nearly one in six Haitians have HIV/AIDS, so a comprehensive approach is needed. And if you are driving a Lexus convertible with the top down ("in the drop Lex"), abstinence is simply not realistic.

More here. Elsewhere in celebrity-presidential platforms, Marty Beckerman translates Palin's rap lyrics Facebook posts.

Hewitt Award Nominee

"While most of America was on vacation, President Obama bypassed the Senate confirmation process and on July 7 appointed a radical, Dr. Donald Berwick, to the Department of Health and Human Services to oversee the nation's Medicaid and Medicare system. While I was helping my 1-year-old son, Gunner, do his life-prolonging breathing treatment, his president betrayed him and others who suffer from cystic fibrosis," – Kristan Hawkins, Washington Examiner.

Three, Four … Twenty Blocks? Ctd

Yglesias tries to reason with Newt using Microsoft Paint:

According to Eric Kleefeld, Gingrich clarified his thinking somewhat last night on Greta Van MosquemapSusteren’s show indicating that the northern boundary of the Exclusion Zone lies somewhere south of 59th Street:

“You know, there are over a hundred mosques in New York City. I favor religious freedom,” said Gingrich. “I’m quite happy if they’d come in and said, ‘We want to build a community center near Central Park, we’d like to build a community center near Columbia University.’ But they didn’t. They said right at the edge of a place where, let’s be clear, thousands of Americans were killed in an attack by radical Islamists.”

So the zone is clearly meant to mark out some kind of specific element of lower Manhattan. My recollection of the actual events of 9/11 were that the National Guard set up barricades along 14th Street (inconvenient for my 12th Street-based family) that people weren’t allowed to cross except for a one-time opportunity for folks to get to their houses. So maybe in honor of the day, we should say no mosques south of 14th Street since, after all, the good people of Greenwich Village, SoHo, etc. are well-known fans of Gingrich, Palin, and their brand of xenophobic militarism.

As a Dish reader pointed out, "The group's leader, Imam Abdul Rauf, has held services in a small mosque in the neighborhood since 1983." Newt ups the ante by calling the mosque organizers "hostile to our civilization." Joe Klein gets the final word:

Newt Gingrich is clearly running for President. How do I know? He gets dumb and angry when running for office.