Author: Andrew Sullivan

The CBO On The Stimulus

There will be long term costs to it – on interest on the debt – but the Obama stimulus seems to have done much better than almost anyone expected:

CBO estimates that in the first quarter of calendar year 2010, ARRA’s policies:

  • Raised the level of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.7 percent and 4.2 percent,
  • Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points,
  • Increased the number of people employed by between 1.2 million and 2.8 million, and 
  • Increased the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs by 1.8 million to 4.1 million compared with what those amounts would have been otherwise. (Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time to full-time work or overtime and are thus generally larger than increases in the number of employed workers.)

The effects of ARRA on output and employment are expected to increase further during calendar year 2010 but then diminish in 2011 and fade away by the end of 2012.

DADT Update

A reminder of what this is really about. But this was not exactly a ringing endorsement:

“Secretary Gates continues to believe that ideally the DOD review should be completed before there is any legislation to repeal the Don’t Ask Don’t Tell law,” Defense spokesman Geoff Morell said in a statement. “With Congress having indicated that is not possible, the secretary can accept the language in the proposed amendment.”

I hope they have the votes. Will Susan Collins be the only Republican voting for this?

“You Love That, Don’t You, Bitch?”

Satan&Saddam

Jeff Stein reports that the CIA in 2003 considered making a fake sex tape of the Iraqi dictator with a teenage boy as a way to discredit him:

The ideas were patently ridiculous, said the other former agency officer. “They came from people whose careers were spent in Latin America or East Asia” and didn’t understand the cultural nuances of the region. “Saddam playing with boys would have no resonance in the Middle East — nobody cares,” agreed a third former CIA official with extensive experience in the region. “Trying to mount such a campaign would show a total misunderstanding of the target. We always mistake our own taboos as universal when, in fact, they are just our taboos.”

South Park got there first, of course.

Palin On Robert Frost, Ctd

Scalia, in a 1995 decision on the separation of powers, made the same mistake as Palin. Two readers, on other hand, disagree with the standard interpretation of the poem. One writes:

In my opinion, Frost doesn't actually choose a side between his two characters.

It is true that the narrator feels "something there is that doesn't love a wall," and tries to convince his neighbor that they are not necessary. But the narrator is not Frost himself. He appears to be a whimsical man, who likes to tease that his apple trees will not eat the neighbor's pine cones, and wants to enter into jokes about elves. The neighbor is plainspoken and stolid, and only responds, "good fences make good neighbors." But his obstinacy could easily be due to finding the narrator irritating. Frost is talking about boundaries and how different people have different tolerances for them. I'm not out to set up Palin as a literary expert, but she is adopting a perfectly valid side of the argument.

The other writes:

You and Palin both have Frost wrong. It is the act of repairing the wall that forces the neighbors to work together each year.  It is this communal act of repairing the barrier that seperates them, that forces the human interaction, thus making them better neighbors.  Frost doesn't like walls, but jointly maintaining the wall is its own benefit.  Thus, "Good fences" (those that are kept in good order) make good neighbors" (neighbors who communicate, work together, etc. on a regular basis).

If the Palins and their new neighbors worked together to build a privacy fence, the communal act of building would make them better neighbors, according to Frost.  And it would also give the reporter a perfect opportunity to make small talk ("So, tell me about your kids … ")

When Pigs Swim

A reader writes:

You can mock all you want, but the springs at San Marcos have had a swimming pig for as long as my admittedly young memory goes back.  That postcard isn't trying to get you to come take a swim.  It is inviting you to see an actual pig, swimming.  It's an important distinction.

Also, you can watch "mermaids" picnic on the bottom.

The “Bleeding Ulcer” Of Marja

The incoherence of Obama's Afghanistan strategy is becoming clearer by the day:

There aren't enough U.S. and Afghan forces to provide the security that's needed to win the loyalty of wary locals. The Taliban have beheaded Afghans who cooperate with foreigners in a creeping intimidation campaign. The Afghan government hasn't dispatched enough local administrators or trained police to establish credible governance, and now the Taliban have begun their anticipated spring offensive.

"This is a bleeding ulcer right now," McChrystal told a group of Afghan officials, international commanders in southern Afghanistan and civilian strategists who are leading the effort to oust the Taliban fighters from Helmand. "You don't feel it here," he said during a 10-hour front-line strategy review, "but I'll tell you, it's a bleeding ulcer outside."

They have not the time nor the manpower nor the central government to make this work. But still they risk their lives each day.

“An Epidemic Of Not Watching” Ctd

A rabbi in the West Bank forbids women from running for local office:

In his weekly column, Rabbi Levanon wrote that, according to the teachings of influential rabbis, women were not allowed to apply for the position. "The first problem is giving women authority, and being a secretary means having authority," Rabbi Levanon wrote in the community's newspaper.

"Within the family certain debates are held and when opinions are united the husband presents the family's opinion. This is the proper way to prevent a situation in which the woman votes one way and her husband votes another," he wrote.

He also said it was not appropriate for women to mix with men in late evening meetings of community leaders.