Category: Barack Obama

The Clintonites are showing signs of panic, as Marc reports:

In a variety of conference calls over the next few days, in surrogate appearances, and in memos distributed to reporters, the campaign will directly challenge Obama on points of his resume, on past statements of his, on the details of his current policy plans, and on his campaign’s pushback that it is Clinton who is not electable…

Much of Barack Obama’s recent success is attributable to Obama himself and his campaign’s formidable Iowa field organization, which was developed by state director Paul Tewes. The Obama campaign regularly attracts more than 70 Iowans to its mock caucuses, a figure suggesting that Obama’s support is wide and deep.

"For a candidate who 50% of the country says they won’t consider voting for, raising questions about electability is a curious strategy," – Bill Burton, Obama’s spokesman.

Meanwhile, Clinton explains her lack of experience in Iowa:

"I’m personally really pleased with how far I’ve come, never having done this with Bill."

My favorite moment in the NYT piece:

She responded with bewilderment when informed that she should not assume that she now had the support of an Iowa Democratic leader even after spending 40 minutes over coffee with him.

Hey, I’m glad I’m not a politician. Obama’s up 8 and Clinton’s down 5 in New Hampshire.

And Obama gets a lead outside the margin of error in South Carolina.

Take this for what it’s worth, but I’ve learned over the years that Dish readers are often attuned to shifts in the political atmosphere:

One of my weather-vane Democratic political friends, who has fiercely argued Hillary’s case with me for the last six months, called today to say he has switched and is backing Obama now.  This is interesting because he has been a big Clinton loyalist — someone who went to the nth degree defending Bill as president, and who has been aggressively advocating Hillary for a year now.

Among the last straws for him was Hillary challenging Obama on character grounds, which he saw as a harbinger of worse things to come if she is the nominee — he is put off by the old-style politics of it, and increasingly caught up by Obama’s call for a change of direction and attitude (which was amplified so well by Oprah this week).

Another reader adds:

I grew up on a small corn and soybean farm in rural Indiana, right past the Illinois state line. Last December, a family friend, a God-fearing, rural-by-birth white man who would fit the vast majority of the public’s outdated rural stereotypes, stopped by our home. Out of the blue, my father asked our visitor who he would be supporting in the next election. Much to this young undergraduate’s surprise, he said: "You heard of Obama? I like him a lot. He’s going to be our next President, I promise you."

Since that day, I’ve had a difficult time picturing anyone other than Obama as our next President. It’s going to happen, Andrew.

I’ve thought so for quite a while. But I don’t know. In general, I think we spend too much time thinking who will be president and too little time thinking who should be. Readers know I’ve long suspected  Obama’s rendezvous with history could be imminent. I’ve just learned to assume nothing.

It’s a change election all right. One small note: Obama is easily the most popular Democrat among Republicans. 23 percent pick him if they have to, compared with 13 percent who picked Clinton. Even Edwards is more popular among Republicans than Clinton.

The second New Hampshire representative in the Congress, U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, is endorsing Obama, having stayed on the fence for a while. The Union-Leader says:

Her backing may be a plus for Obama especially among women, who have strongly favored Clinton so far in the New Hampshire Democratic primary race, according to polls.

An interesting analogy from a reader:

I was listening to NPR this morning and they were interviewing someone from Louisiana about their new governor. He made a statement that exactly articulates my feelings for Obama.

"Most Louisianians are happy to give our legislators some adult supervision. Even if it is a young adult."

Considering Washington in my view has become as corrupt as Louisiana I would like someone that is not beholden to the powers that be. I don’t think it is naive to think Obama can’t do what he is promising. That’s really all we can get from our politicians while they are on the campaign trail. All I know is that the status quo is not working and we need a complete change in mindset in the White House and Washington. 

A Chicago reader writes:

As an Illinois observer I’m still fascinated to see whether Obama can reel in black voters in the last month or two of this primary race, just as he did here in 2004.

It’s remarkable how little Obama has focused on black voters until now, but that may have been a savvy move. Fair or not, many African-American candidates get pidgeonholed as having only niche appeal. But Obama has spent all this time branding himself as a candidate who strives to transcend race, so that now when he has to campaign hard in the black community in South Carolina and elsewhere people don’t see him as limited to one constituency. Oprah is the perfect metaphor for that strategy. He’s trying to get the best of both worlds.

It worked in 2004. Two months before that Democratic primary, Obama was polling only 29% of the black vote, and was mired in the pack with 14% overall. Less than a month before the election, Obama polled at 38% of the black vote. But just three weeks later his black support had surged to 62% in the final poll before the election. On election day he commanded more than 90% in many mostly African-American wards.

The Chicago Tribune post-election analysis noted,

"Early in the campaign, there were questions whether Obama, a Harvard-educated lawyer who grew up in Indonesia and Hawaii and now lives in Hyde Park, had established a credible relationship with Chicago’s black community."

Déjà vu…

(Photo: Tim Sloan/AFP/Getty.)

Democrats don’t really want or trust her. If Obama can defuse his electability problems, she could be wiped out. From one focus group in Al Hunt’s new column:

Obama, they worried, can’t win the nomination; voters aren’t ready for an African-American president (a point expressed most directly by the two black women participants), and he may not be sufficiently experienced.

A couple of victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would cure most of those problems.

The concerns about Clinton, 60, a New York senator, are that she is devious, calculating and, fairly or not, a divisive figure in American politics. Those are a lot tougher to overcome.

It was revealing, too, when Hart pushed them to envision these senators as leaders of the country or, as he put it, their “boss.” Obama, they say, would be inspirational, motivating, charismatic and compassionate. After praising Clinton’s experience and intelligence, they say she would be demanding, difficult, maybe even a little scary.

The Democrats are picking between hope and fear, between the future and the past.

(Photo: Mario Tama/Getty.)