It’s been cut in half, according to Reuters:
Clinton led Obama 38 percent to 27 percent in the new poll, a 10-point fall from her 46 percent to 25 percent lead last month. The drop followed a month of attacks on the New York senator from her rivals and a heavily criticized performance in a late-October debate.
My essay about the transformational potential of Obama candidacy – "Goodbye To All That" – can be read here.
Obama’s wife will be co-hosting "The View" next month.
"The only hope for the US in the Muslim world."
Noam on the trail:
Obama seemed pretty exercised about it, saying he won’t stand for this kind of innuendo and repeatedly pointing out that it took the Clinton campaign three iterations to completely deny that they were behind it. Obama invoked Kerry’s swift-boating in 2004 and said he was so quick to respond because this kind of thing can be all over the world in seconds on the Internet. As you might expect, there was some debate among the press corps here about whether Obama was so adamant because there might be some truth to the charge, or because he was trying to nip some ugly gossip in the bud. Whatever the case, he was probably right to approach it that way. The story hasn’t just captivated the lurid imagination of Washington insiders. It’s broken through to the local media here, too.
Mickey enjoys himself here.
Ambers is on the case. Pretty underwhelming even if it’s true, and there’s no solid evidence yet.
A reader writes:
I have always thought that Barack is a natural conservative and that he might do well in the Republican party, albeit the sparse Rockefeller wing. I think his conservative trait manifests itself in both his foreign and domestic policies as well as his personal style as a politician. On foreign policy, I will describe Barack as a rational hawk in the mold of the elder Bush and Powell. The way he has handled his opposition to the Iraq war speaks to this. Even though he opposed the war from the start, he has been careful not to sound stupidly anti-war like the folks on the far left and has given the military and the commander-in-chief the benefit of the doubt by mostly funding the war. His position of appropriately escalating the conflict in Afghanistan is also consistent with this view.
On domestic policy, I think Barack struggles to fit into the big government wing of the Democratic party. His experience as a community organizer informs him about the limits of what government can do.
For example, in education, he believes that no amount of federal spending can help without strong parental involvement. Even his urban agenda is somewhat conservative in nature — identify at-risk pregnant women and provide assistance and support to them so that their children are prepared to lead independent lives instead of becoming a part of the welfare state. I think you observed it when you said in your essay that "I attended an Obama speech in Washington on tax policy that underwhelmed on delivery" — his heart is not simply where he thinks there is a government hand-out for every problem. Notice how far behind he lags Hillary and John Edwards when it comes to developing new programs. Even on the issue of health insurance, his conservative demeanor is very clear — he is the only one among the top three not to require a mandate.
Personally and stylistically, I also see him as a good fit for the Republican party. Unlike some folks on the far-left, he actually beliefs that there is a role for faith in the public square and actually enjoys talking about his faith. He also values consistency as a strong character trait which leads me to wonder if he can ever do well in the Democratic party where he has to answer to all of their interest groups?
I don’t agree with all this, but I do agree that Obama is not a classic leftist: far too interesting and nuanced for that. His opposition to the Iraq war was largely realist and pragmatic.
An interesting nugget from Continetti:
Recently I’ve come across more than a few conservative Republicans who are open to voting for Obama should the Republicans nominate a polarizing figure like Giuliani. I asked one of them why they would vote for someone whose ideological leanings would result in policies with which conservatives disagree. "Well," this person said, "You’ve got to remember: the idelogical stuff never gets done."
More sympathetic to Obama – especially on social security. CafeHayek gives Krugman the boot here. Obama won the Kos vote too, for what it’s worth. But Kucinich was a close second. A Las Vegan blogger has this take:
Obama’s strongest moment was when he unpacked the disingenuousness of Clinton’s Social Security triangulation by noting that only 6 percent of households have income of more than $97,500, so raising the cap on earnings that are taxed for Social Security would not touch the middle class, but the upper class. In the spin room later, Nevada state Sen. Steven Horsford, an Obama guy, predicted that the Social Security issue could become a "centerpiece" of the campaign going forward. That’s probably a tad optimistic. But Obama is clearly right.
I still think he had a mediocre night. His drivers’ license answer was beyond stupid. But I guess it’s a sign he actually thinks he can win.
The creaming of Clinton:
Two high-profile Democrats, Obama and John Edwards, are validating a core part of the anti-Hillary case that Republicans have made for years — that she’s a slippery cynic who cares only about power.
Well: duh. She is. Dickerson worries:
Obama went too far here. He didn’t have to compare Clinton to Giuliani and Romney.
Would it kill CNN to disclose that James Carville is a partisan Clinton supporter when talking about the presidential race?
Yeah it would.
A reader writes:
I went to hear Barack Obama speak tonight in San Francisco. The crowd was huge, the lines were long, and (reportedly) the Secret Service was slowing things down by searching everyone exhaustively at the door. It was painfully obvious that I probably wasn’t going to be admitted in time to hear the speech. Then the police cleared the street next to the one I was waiting on, putting up “do not cross” tape. Childishly, I thought “I may not get in to hear the speech, but at least I’ll see the motorcade”. When the motorcade did come roaring down the street, it suddenly stopped.
Someone had told Senator Obama that huge lines of supporters had little or no hope of getting in to the main event. He left his motorcade, walked on foot down the street towards the crowd, and gave a ten minute impromptu speech for those waiting in line.
And it wasn’t fluff, either – he unequivocally promised to close Guantanamo and restore habeas corpus and the constitution. A small thing, maybe, but a major contrast with his main competitor’s unconcern with tipping her waitperson.
Another minor point – I have read in more than one place that older African-Americans are reluctant to vote for Obama because they believe that if nominated, he will be assassinated. I wish they could have seen the Secret Service as they accompanied Obama tonight. They were the most intimidating sight I ever saw. I had no doubt whatsoever that they were totally prepared to either die in the senator’s defense or shoot me on sight if I appeared to pose a threat. Nothing on earth would have induced me to provoke them.
The Dish 