Category: Old Dish

“So lots of pundits, including you, have been attributing Bush’s success nationally to his having excited the base over the gay marriage issue. In particular, the strategy of using the ballot initiatives in 11 states, thereby dragging religious conservatives to the polls to vote against marriage and at the same time check the box next to Bush, is regarded as having been particularly effective.

That is, of course, fiction. Bush improved his share of the popular vote by 3.2% from 2000 to 2004 (47.9 in 2000, 51.1 in 2004). Now how did he do in the states which had anti-marriage ballot initiatives?

Arkansas +3.0%
Georgia +3.3%
Kentucky +3.1%
Michigan +1.8%
Mississippi +2.2%
Montana +0.7%
North Dakota +2.2%
Ohio +1.0%
Oklahoma +5.3%
Oregon +0.8%
Utah +4.2%

Only in two states (Utah and Oklahoma) did he gain a significantly higher vote share than he did nationwide. Maybe comparing to the national popular vote is misleading, so let’s compare each of those states to a neighboring, politically-similar state which did not have an anti-marriage initiative on the ballot:

Missouri +2.9 (AR +3.0)
Florida +3.4 (GA +3.3)
Tennessee +5.7 (KY +3.1)
Wisconsin +1.5 (MI +1.8)
Alabama +6.0 (MS +2.2)
Idaho +1.2 (MT +0.7)
South Dakota -0.4 (ND +2.2)
Pennsylvania +2.0 (OH +1.0)
Texas +1.8 (OK +5.3)
Washington +1.2 (OR +0.8)
Wyoming +1.2 (UT +4.2)

Again, not much. In only 3 cases (UT-WY, ND-SD, and OK-TX) did Bush improve a lot more in a state with an anti-marriage initiative than he did in the state with which it was paired. And, in the case of North Dakota, the hotly contested Senate race in South Dakota may have skewed things a bit; a better comparison might be Nebraska, where Bush was +3.0% better in 2004 than in 2000, a better improvement than what he got in North Dakota.
That leaves two states, Oklahoma and Utah, which had an anti-marriage initiative on the ballot and in which Bush’s vote share improved more both relative to the nation as a whole and relative to the neighboring state selected.
It is certainly possible that the fact that the Bush administration raised the issue to the level to which did led to increased turnout among religious conservatives nationwide, which then resulted in Bush’s overall improved vote share over his 2000 performance. However, one would also expect that this vote share improvement would have been particularly high in states in which the marriage issue was particularly relevant. On the contrary, there is no evidence that suggests that the strategy of putting the anti-marriage initiatives on the ballot in several states did anything to improve Bush’s performance in those states.”

No, I’m not letting go of this story. When a film-maker in a liberal Western country is shot, has his throat cut and then has a long manifesto pinned into his flesh with a knife in broad daylight, more people need to be concerned. Now it turns out that the murderer, who had completely blended into Dutch society, belonged to the same Islamist cult as Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the terrorist now at large in Iraq. The cult is called Takfir Wal Hijra. Here’s a useful Dutch blog on the case. Money quote:

TIME wrote about Takfir Wal Hijra: ‘Takfir wal Hijra is a sort of Islamic fascism.’ However, even more interesting is the assertion that Takfir Wal Hijra apparently allows its members to appear non-radical, and even non-Islamic, if the mission requires it: ‘The threat of Takfir is that its cold, heartless killers could easily be the boy or girl next door. Takfir Wal Hijra members are permitted to disregard the injunctions of Islamic law in order to blend into infidel societies. In other words, Takfirs can have sex with loose women, drink alcohol, eat pork and do whatever else they feel is appropriate to advance their mission.’

That was also true of the murderers of 9/11. How conveeenient. The note – written in fluent, literate Dutch – is chilling. Here is part of its message. Remember that it was pinned into someone’s flesh with a knife, and also threatened another person, Dutch parliamentarian, Ayaan Hirsi Ali:

I know for sure that you, Oh America will go under;
I know for sure that you, Oh Europe, will go under;
I know for sure that you, Oh Holland, will go under;
I know for sure that you, Oh Hirsi Ali, will go under;
I know for sure that you, Oh unbelieving fundamentalist, will go under.

What part of that do we not understand?

Some smart thoughts about why Kerry lost. Money quote:

Did the Kerry campaign really imagine that they could out direct-market Karl Rove? By buying into the 17-state strategy, they walked right into Rove’s trap. By reducing the battlefield, they enlarged the Bush campaign’s tactical brilliance. The key to defeating Bush in the biggest national election since 1968 was to nationalize the race, not localize it. And the way to do that was to do it, with national campaign advertising, national campaigning and a direct national appeal that said: this is not Florida’s election or Ohio’s election, this is your election. You pay taxes, you have a right to be heard. I will not disenfranchise you. I will not marginalize your vote.

Well, the real national strategy was simply anti-Bush. Strong enough to get you to 48 percent. Not strong enough for the rest.

EMAIL OF THE DAY: “You are wrong. Gays were NOT the issue. I’m a born again Christian, (raised Baptist, then Pentecostal!) Morals were my deciding factor also. Not anything to do with “gay” I live next door to San Francisco and have gay family and dear friends since 1976. BEFORE it was cool. BEFORE it accepted like it is today, I have had 4 friends die of AIDS.
The morals I cared about? A president who meant what he said. A man who is faithful to his wife. A man who doesn’t pander to Hollywood. A man who is not ashamed to say he prays and give credit to a higher power, who helps him. A man who doesn’t try to please all the people all the time. A man who shares my deeply held belief about freedom and what a GREAT country America is, and someone who knew Saddam Hussein has murdered 400,000 innocent men, women and children. I did not care if there were weapons of mass destruction, Saddam himself was a weapon of mass destruction. We are better off today, with this man gone from power, who can argue that? Who are these people that say we should have not gone in there, I thought we should of done this YEARS ago.” I hope this emailer is representative (although I fear she is not of many in the organized religious right). I agree with much of it. And I’m sick and tired of having the notion of homosexuality being disassociated from “moral values.” Homosexuality, like heterosexuality, is morally neutral. And the fight for gay marriage is about celebrating the difficult moral tasks of fidelity and love and commitment and responsibility. I wish we gays could find common cause with more Christians in exactly this kind of endeavor. And I know that many of us have. But the fear of both sides has caused this great and painful rift. I pray that enough people of good will can overcome their fear and help to heal it.

Say this about Clinton: he always understood how to triangulate. The president who doubled the number of gay discharges form the military, signed the ban on HIV-positive immigrants, and jumped energetically on the Defense of Marriage Act, told Kerry to back marriage and civil union bans for gays in the campaign. Kerry, to his enormous credit, didn’t go there. But then Kerry never presided over the execution of a retarded man for his own political purposes either.

L’ETAT, C’EST W: “And it has happened abroad, as well, where the president’s opponents and enemies – which is to say America’s opponents and enemies – must now be pulling their hair and gnashing their teeth with frustration and resentment.” – Bill Kristol. He ends his piece of triumphalism by quoting Danton. What does it tell you about what’s happened to Burke’s conservatism when its current advocates are citing French revolutionaries as inspiration? What next? Robespierre? Lenin?

DESERT CIVILIZATION: Check out this fawning account of the life of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al-Nahyan in yesterday’s Daily Telegraph. My favorite snippet:

His skills as a mediator were celebrated throughout the region. They had been honed during a long apprenticeship as Ruler’s Representative in the Eastern Region of Abu Dhabi, lasting from 1946 until he took over as Ruler in a bloodless coup 20 years later. His sense of honour became a trademark. He never betrayed the solemn fraternal oath he and his brothers swore before their mother Sheikha Salaama not to murder each other.

What restraint!

“‘Ach,’ says Oliver James, the clinical psychologist. ‘I was too depressed to even speak this morning. I thought of my late mother, who read Mein Kampf when it came out in the 1930s and thought, ‘Why doesn’t anyone see where this is leading?”” – from the Guardian today.

ANOTHER EMAIL: An important point:

We are often caught up in a moment to see how good we really have it. I am one who believes that civil marriage is the ONLY way to have equal rights for gay Americans in the US. That said I am not the least bit surprised with the losses in all 11 states — I expected it!
We live in a wonderfully diverse country, and I know that some do not appreciate my “lifestyle”, but that has not hindered me from having a satisfying life. There are many forms of bigotry and hatred, we just can not allow those fears to blind the path to success. I am now 45 years old — If you would have told me back in college (1980) that I would be living openly as a gay American, with a successful career and a wonderful partner of over eleven years – I do not think that I would have thought that possible.
Social change is a gradual process– different in every society – push too hard and you get “don’t ask don’t tell” – or the hateful “Defense of Marriage Act” – and now the the current losses. John Kerry or the Democratic party is not the place that gay America should be placing all their faith in the future — they will surely be disappointed. Bill Clinton signed ‘don’t ask don’t tell” twelve years ago! – A huge setback.
I for one, am very grateful for the social freedoms that I have, and look forward to the expansion of them that will naturally come in the future. I have nothing but optimism on this front, and fully except to see civil marriage in my lifetime.”

I agree with much of this. We have to strike a balance. We should not minimize or excuse the base appeals that the GOP have been making. But we should also realize how far we’ve come. Even this emailer understates it: We do have civil marriage in his lifetime. Gay couples married today in Massachusetts are, under state law, as married as any heterosexual couple. Even this president has now broken with his social conservative base and endorsed civil unions for gay couples. Rather than demonize him, we have to hold him to his word. The world is not evenly divided between those who totally accept gay relationships and those who “hate” us. It’s far more complicated, and many, many voters for Bush do not share the loathing of the far right. We cannot and should not alienate these people. That’s what Bill Bennett wants. Most fair-minded people are on our side in the end. Yes, this is painful. Yes, it is frightening. But the broader truth is far more hopeful. I’ve said it before; and it’s worth repeating: This is America. Equality will win in the end. If we keep the faith. If we refuse to accept the cynicism of those who would use our differences to win power. In the end, they have power. But we have the truth. And that’s all that really matters in the end.

LETTERS BONANZA: Don’t miss today’s Letters Page – full of some of the smartest feedback on the web.

“It could not have been clearer if it had quoted from the Bible,” – John C. Green, a University of Akron professor who studies religion and politics. According to the Washington Post, “Green described one piece of mail from the Bush campaign that featured a beautiful church and a traditional nuclear family. It was headlined, ‘George W. Bush shares your values. Marriage. Life. Faith.'” That’s how they did it. The war was not the issue. Gays were.

“Don’t do it. Don’t do it. Have mercy. Have mercy!” Those were the last words of Theo Van Gogh, a fearless liberal critic of traditional Islam’s brutal treatment of women, as Jihadist thugs murdered him on an Amsterdam street. Mercy? From these maniacs? Van Gogh was shot several times and then had his throat cut. The culprits were a gang of Islamists:

Piet Hein Donner, the Dutch justice minister, said the suspect “acted out of radical Islamic fundamentalist convictions” and added that he had contacts with a group that was under surveillance by the Dutch secret service. The suspect is allegedly friends with Samir Azzouz, an 18-year-old Muslim of Moroccan origin awaiting trial on charges of planning a terrorist attack against a nuclear reactor and Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport, NOS Dutch national television reported. Azzouz was part of a group arrested in October 2003 but released for lack of evidence. He was re-arrested in June.

This is a useful reminder of the danger that has not gone away. Will Europe’s secular liberals condemn it? And can Europe face up to what is happening within its own admirably tolerant society?

STAT OF THE DAY: Gays: Kerry 77, Bush 23. Jews: Kerry 74, Bush 25. You can hear the ghost of Jim Baker now, can’t you?

Another small loss for the coalition in Iraq. Poland is also phasing its contribution out.

TWO OPENINGS: There are two vacancies looming in the world: Chief Justice Rehnquist and Yassir Arafat. Obviously, I don’t mean to compare them substantively, but the president’s response to each will be instructive as to his future course in the next few years. A vacancy on the Supreme Court will lead to a revealing new pick. Will the president cater to his Christian-right base and nominate someone steadfastly opposed to abortion rights and gay rights? You bet he will. I cannot imagine him choosing a Souter or a Kennedy, especially now after his convincing win. Arafat’s looming death suggests another choice. If a less noxious Palestinian leader emerges, will Bush use the shift to become more engaged in the Israel-Palestinian conflict as a means to encourage the U.N. or other European leaders to play a more conciliatory role in Iraq? Will he tilt against Sharon? Again I doubt it very much. The great mystery now is whether this president will use a second term to moderate somewhat or to forge ahead to the right. My bet is on the latter.

I’m off to the West Coast for the season finale of Bill Maher’s Real Time on HBO this Friday night. I’m on with comedian D.L. Hughley and Noam Chomsky. God help me. Thanks also for the incredible readership over the past two days. Our previous traffic high was around 150,000 daily visits. Yesterday, we hit 330,000, and today something in the same ball-park. I remember blogging the last election (yes, I was blogging before it was so cool) and was thrilled to get 10,000 visits. I’d still be thrilled to get 10,000. But thirty times that number is sweet. Blogging really comes alive at times like these – because we’re all going through these things together in real time. Thanks for being there. As someone once remarked, it makes it all ress ronery.

TWO EMAILS: Reading my in-tray today has been an experience. It’s not just that I’m tired from being up all night. It’s that I didn’t expect the emotions I felt today. And readers have chimed in – well over a thousand emails. Yes, many have focused on the gay issue, and, given what has just happened, and the strategy that underpinned it, why not? Heading out to dinner last night, in a mainly gay neighborhood, I was struck by how many people looked shell-shocked, frightened, grim. Here’s an email I got minutes before I left that helps provide some context:

“I wonder if you noticed that yesterday all eleven states that considered the question of gay marriage voted to ban it. ALL ELEVEN. I think this sends a very clear message — true Americans do not like your kind of homosexual deviants in our country, and we will not tolerate your radical pro-gay agenda trying to force our children to adopt your homosexual lifestyle. You should be EXTREMELY GRATEFUL that we even let you write a very public and influential blog, instead of suppressing your treasonous views (as I would prefer). But I’m sure someone like yourself would consider me just an “extremist” that you don’t need to worry about. Well you are wrong — I’m not just an extremist, I am a real American, and you should be worried because eleven states yesterday proved that there are millions more just like me who will not let you impose your radical agenda on our country.”

Then I got this:

“I’ll tell you, being a 16 year-old gay kid in Michigan just got a hell of a lot worse. When I woke up this morning and saw the anti gay marriage proposal had passed, I was shocked. I realized the situation I’m faced with everyday in school – the American people have just shown my classmates that it’s perfectly fine to discriminate. A direct quote from a ‘friend’ at school today: ‘It’s so cool that all these states just told all the faggots to eat shit and get the hell out…’ Because of the above events, I am at a crossroads … I’m the youngest card-carrying Republican in the county, and am constantly asked to get others involved for Bush/Cheney. Herein lies a problem, I can’t bring myself to do that. Bush totally lost all my support (I know I can’t vote – but I make a hell of a campaigner) when he supported the amendment to ban gay marriages, and I felt bad that in straying from Bush, I was abandoning Cheney, who I have an amazing amount of respect for. Many would say go Democrat… but I can’t do that (that signals the absence of a spine up here), and in the next year, I’m considering dropping my membership to the party. Especially this year, despite how undercut and violated I feel as a gay person, I couldn’t be happier that I am. I’ve got a stronger will because of it, and will lead my life just as strongly.

How do you stay calm and upbeat after two emails like that?

Kerry won the center and the left. Over to Noam:

Not only did Kerry win by an 86-13 margin among self-described liberals, he also won by a 55-45 margin among self-described moderates. So how’d Bush pull it off? He won 84-15 among self-described conservatives, and, more importantly, he made sure conservatives comprised a much bigger chunk of the electorate than they did in 2000. (Conservatives comprised about 34 percent of the electorate yesterday, versus 29 percent in 2000 — a huge shift, raw numbers-wise.) Anyone anticipating a conciliatory second Bush term should stop and consider how much Bush owes his base.

There you have the Rove strategy in a nutshell. If the ideological demographics had stayed the same as they had been in 2000, Kerry might have won. Two other small points: all those predictions of gay marriage moving African-Americans toward the Republicans didn’t pan out. All those predictions of the youth vote going for Kerry did pan out – but they were trounced by seniors shifting to Bush (I think the gay issue mattered there as well). The GOP’s weak spot is that they aren’t winning over the young; and that they won’t have gays to kick around for ever. I notice that in California and Massachusetts, marriage equality candidates all won big. The polarization continues. Let federalism work.