Category: The Dish

More data suggesting high turnout.

From Doug Ireland’s source. I cannot independently verify these, they may not pan out, etc., etc., but I see no reason not to pass them on to you. 

RHODE ISLAND: D-53, 47

VIRGINIA D-52, R-47

ARIZONA D-46, R-50

CONNECTICUT Lieberman up 4 points

FLORIDA D-62, R-36

MISSOURI D-50, R-48

NEW JERSEY D-50, R-46

NEW YORK D-68, R-30

OHIO D-57, R-42

PENNSYLVANIA D-57, R-42

MARYLAND D-53, R-46

MONTANA D-50, R-48

That’s what one group is saying, looking at raw, early precinct numbers.

Pollster.com helps explain it all to you. We know extremely little right now.

Here’s how she saves it for the GOP.

JPod:

NOT ONLY ALL POLLS ARE GARBAGE BUT … the exit polls are garbage too. I’m not saying it’s not a Democratic night. I’ve made no predictions this cycle and I’m not going to start now. But these numbers are crazy out of whack, is my sense.

Chill, JPod. It’s early. And these numbers are not to be trusted. Why so touchy so soon?

These were wrong in 2004 and they’re early. Early exits are the least reliable. But if they pan out, it’s a bloodbath:

Casey 61 – Santorum 38

Cardin 51 – Steele 48

McCaskill 53 – Talent 46

Webb 55 – Allen 45

The mood is surly out there:

In surveys at polling places, about six in 10 voters said they disapproved of the way President Bush is handling his job, and roughly the same percentage opposed the war in Iraq. They were more inclined to vote for Democratic candidates than for Republicans.

In even larger numbers, about three-quarters of voters said scandals mattered to them in deciding how to vote, and they, too, were more likely to side with Democrats. The surveys were taken by The Associated Press and the networks.

But again: this election depends on actual votes in districts and states, not polls of the national mood. So beware.

Early exit polls stories that run with headlines like this do not suggest good news for the GOP. But they don’t prove anything either.

The vote of those under 30. This may finally be an election when young people actually vote in large numbers.