A few thoughts: that red phone ad is working. It’s not that Clinton would make better decisions on national security. She has scant experience in foreign policy, and is guided primarily by what will be least vulnerable to Republican demagoguery (it’s the only common thread over the years when you look closely). It’s also going her way because she’s familiar to people – and blue-collar voters in Ohio associate familiarity with security. (One reason they narrowly backed an untested governor from Texas was his last name.) The anti-Muslim smears may also have worked, and Clinton delicately managed to keep them alive last night. And the press has gotten cold feet – caving to the Clintons’ preposterous idea that somehow the field is tilted against them. Howie Kurtz gets to regurgitate Hannity’s smears as if they were legitimate matters for press inquiry, while the press essentially gives the Clintons a pass on their continued refusal to do the most basic act of transparency: providing their tax returns. Clinton has also dominated every news cycle in the past week. And there’s some anecdotal evidence that Republicans are planning to vote for Clinton to kill off the Obama candidacy before it destroys them in the fall.
On the other hand, it’s important to remember that the delegate math is still heavily stacked against Clinton.
She has to win all four states tomorrow by very healthy margins just to stay viable. Her husband and co-candidate for president, Bill Clinton, has openly said that she has to win both Ohio and Texas for the two of them to stay in the race. What matters tomorrow night will be delegates. If Obama maintains or increases his delegate lead, she should withdraw. But, of course, she will never withdraw of her own volition. And that’s part of her strategy. She will gladly hold her party hostage to her own narcissism. She did it with her husband for much of their last second term.
I get the feeling that if she ekes out a win or two, she will insist on pursuing the full Monty: a scorched earth effort to seat Michigan and Florida delegates; suing Texas if the delegates don’t go her way; a full court press on any super-delegates who balk; and a gut-wrenching struggle for power up to the convention.
If she cannot be stopped, she can still be slowed. If you’re in Ohio, Rhose Island, Vermont and Texas, you know what to do. This is what you call the fierce urgency of now.
