Category: The Dish

Did Bill Kill Hill?

Radley Balko writes what I’m too timid to say:

So here’s a crazy theory that occurred to me the other day, and that gets more plausible the more I think about it: Clinton’s comments were calculated, but they may have been more sinister than even the activist I met knows. Clinton – perhaps subconsciously – was sabotaging his wife’s campaign.

Not so crazy a theory. I’ve long believed that Bill Clinton is torn between two impulses – a desire to embellish his own record by seeing his wife get the presidency and a desire to embellish his own record by seeing his wife not get the presidency. He is certainly psychologically damaged and complex enough to torpedo his wife’s ambitions and equally damaged enough not even to be aware of it. Which makes it all the more Shakespearian. One huge reason not to put the Clintons back in the Oval Office is the lesson of the Bush years. Never under-estimate family rivalry. It fucks things up.

Clinton, Briefly

Matt sums up the message:

My understanding, though, is that [Maine] doesn’t really count because it’s a small state, much as Utah doesn’t count because there aren’t many Democrats there, DC doesn’t count because there are too many black people, Washington doesn’t count because it’s a caucus, Illinois doesn’t count because Obama represents it in the Senate even though Hillary was born there, Hawaii won’t count because Obama was born there. I’m not sure why Delaware and Connecticut don’t count, but they definitely don’t.

Clinton As Manager II

Hilzoy points out another massive failure – not foreseeing a long campaign, not saving enough money, not planning adequately:

The Obama campaign arguably had more reason than the Clinton campaign to focus on the earliest contests and slight the later ones. Obama, after all, was coming from behind. He had to win some of the early contests. If he had lost every state through Super Tuesday, it would have been all over for him. He therefore had a pretty strong reason to put everything he had into those states, and hope that whatever momentum he got would carry him through in places like Maine and Nebraska. Clinton, by contrast, only had to anticipate that Obama might win enough states to keep going to know that she had to focus on the post-Super Tuesday states. She has a lot less excuse for making this misjudgment than Obama did. But she made it, and he did not. That tells me something.

It tells you that her spin of competence just isn’t true. This has been an incompetently run campaign. And it’s the best evidence we have of Clinton’s executive skills.

Clinton As Manager I

She’s supposed to have experience? Check this out:

Over the last seven years, Clinton had raised $175 million for her reelection and her presidential campaign. But Solis Doyle didn’t tell Clinton that there was next to no cash on hand until after the New Hampshire primary.

"We were lying about money," a source said. "The cash on hand was nothing."

In turn, Clinton didn’t tell Solis Doyle that she was lending her own money to keep the campaign afloat. Solis Doyle found out third-hand. And when she asked Clinton about it, the senator told her she couldn’t understand how the campaign had gotten to such a point.

Ambers has a similar story to tell. The reason underlings lie about things is because they’re scared and don’t want to upset the boss. Think Bush and Iraq. Or Bush and everything. You want another executive like that in the White House? The kind who does not want to hear bad news?

The Game Changer

Politics is already a little different. A reader writes:

Yesterday I participated in the Democratic caucuses in central Maine.  I am nearly 50, and I’ve never seen anything like it.  The turnout was amazing – four little towns in the same small community center, with over 200 people attending.  In 2004 the total number might have been 40.  But that’s not the interesting part.

When our little town split off for our individual caucus, I realized much of what you have been saying about Obama being a game changer is true.

There were 30 of us, with about 10 for Hillary and 20 for Obama (27 when absentee ballots were counted).  Four of the Obama voters spoke up – there were all independents who had switched their registrations to Democratic so that they could participate.  And this on a snowy day.  In 2004, we had only 8 people caucus in our town, so in a typical year, that would have been half of the draw.

The most poignant words came from one of the independents, a clean-cut career military guy in his 40s who said he had always voted a straight Republican ticket, and was devastated at what has happened to the military in the last seven years.  He said early in his career his was treated like royalty overseas; just last year he was spit on twice.

The most heated moment came late in the process, when an elderly gentleman for Hillary said, "I want everyone here to make a pledge, and I’m talking to all you Obama supporters.  I want you to pledge that you will be loyal Democrats, and vote for Hillary if she gets the nomination."  The 4 (former) independents all said flat-out if it was Clinton vs. McCain, they would be voting for McCain.  One Obama supporter said, "I’m an American first, not a Democrat, and I will make no such pledge."  The rest of us Obama supporters were quiet because we didn’t want to offend our neighbors, but I did a quick poll of 4 around me as we were leaving, and their position is the same as mine – we are not voting for Hillary for president under any circumstances.

I have voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since I was eligible to vote first in 1980, and sometimes I had to hold my nose.  But no more – I simply won’t vote for someone I know will be a poor president, and bring so much baggage to boot.  My key issues are education and health care – Hillary started the debacle of more and more testing and federal intervention in schools, bringing the dubious Arkansas programs she championed with her when Bill was elected.  She set health care reform back a generation.  We all have our reasons for opposing her, and there are plenty of them. I think many people who have claimed blind loyalty to the Republican or Democratic parties have seen what acting like sheep has gotten us, and we’re done with it.  If it’s Clinton and McCain, we’ll still be voting for the other offices on the ballot, but the presidential one will remain blank.

Many of us Obama supporters are a strong anti-Hillary vote, more than a pro-Obama vote like you.  And that’s why it’s such a pleasant surprise as we get to know him, see what he is building, and start to believe.

I think the Clinton supporters had to be struck as everyone was by the numbers, and the new people.  The kid elected chair of our caucus was 20, figuring out the delegate split with the calculator on his cell phone.  The average age of our caucus attendees is usually 50+ – we’ve never had college-age kids show up in the time I’ve been involved.

Just imagine this same scene played out in thousands of little towns across the country, as independents, life-long Republicans, and kids show up to Democratic caucuses.  Game changer indeed.