Romney In The South

He has simply failed to win the Christianist base. And he failed to win California and was third in Missouri, a critical bellwether. Even Hewitt seems resigned to reality:

McCain has strength across the country and a lead in delegates, but nowhere near 50% of the GOP’s votes. Huck’s strength is the south; Romney’s the mountain west plus Michigan and Massachusetts.

Rush and Dr. Dobson are aligned against the front-runner, which complicates McCain’s task enormously.  Romney and Huckabee in for the distance, and why not given the map’s much less punishing pace from here on in?

California’s Gays

They go for Clinton by 2 to 1 in the exit polls. Will they never learn? Clinton also gets a landslide among those with no college education and a big lead among Hispanics. She really has the core Democratic base in that state. Reading these exits, it’s hard to see how Obama can win. But they’re exits – and they’ve been wrong before.

“We Are The Ones We Have Been Waiting For”

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Among Obama’s states: Colorado, Idaho, Utah, Kansas, Alabama. His geographic reach is remarkable. His speech – just so glaringly, embarrassingly, surpassingly superior to his opponent’s – has a theme of national unity and an end to identity politics. He actually rebukes voting on the basis of race whereas Clinton championed her role as a woman in politics. That’s the difference. A reference to Washington’s "dramas and distractions." An invocation of the wave of mortgage foreclosures. He praises Clinton by name but then puts the boot in – on lobbyists, Iraq, Iran, torture. And he’s actually making tax hikes for the rich a positive reason to vote for him. No, Senator Clinton, he is not Ronald Reagan. And he is not George W. Bush: "We will make mistakes."

Look: he’s a liberal. I’m not. But I’m not immune to this moment in history and this candidate’s broad appeal. He appeals to the liberal in all of us. And it may be time for such a swing of the pendulum. Frankly, if that’s going to happen, I’d rather have Obama represent that shift than almost anyone else.

If he loses California, the race goes on and he may not ultimately win the nomination. But he will have won this campaign. And he will have won the argument.

Obama and McCain

It’s interesting, isn’t it, that both are doing particularly well in states that, in the general election, mainly go to the other party. But Obama has more traditional Democratic states as well. He has the base and he has the reach. McCain only seems to have the reach. But I’m glad that front-runners in both parties seem to be appealing across party lines. That’s a good thing. We need more of it.

Georgia

The Clinton spin on Obama’s big Georgia win:

Unlike the Obama campaign, the Clinton campaign never dedicated significant resources to Georgia. Sen. Obama spent over $500,000 dollars on ads on television and radio; we never went up on TV. The Obama campaign has 9 offices in Georgia. The Clinton campaign only has 2. Sen. Obama has had staff and significant campaign operation across the state for 8 months. Sen. Clinton only deployed staff to the state in the last couple of weeks. Polls have consistently showed Sen. Obama with wide lead over Sen Clinton. That lead has only widened over time.

McHuckabee!

This strikes me as the big news tonight. Mike Huckabee’s remarkable strength in the South is proof to me of the resilience of Christianist populism in the current GOP coalition. I can’t see how either Romney or Huckabee can ultimately topple McCain, but I can see that Huckabee is proving a serious contender for the veep slot. The big imponderable is obviously California. If Romney beats McCain there, he doesn’t seriously challenge him but he sure bloodies him – perhaps critically.

This has been only an average night for the Republican front-runner. At this point, one begins to wonder if the GOP isn’t in serious disarray for a while.