Category: The Dish

Gallup’s latest has Clinton by five points nationally. Money quote:

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remain fairly closely matched in national Democratic voters’ nomination preferences, although Clinton appears to have stopped Obama’s momentum over the past two days … Clinton has led Obama in Gallup’s daily interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday. This suggests that her position may be stronger in Super Tuesday voting than some have anticipated given Obama’s rapid closing of the 20-percentage point gap with Clinton that existed two weeks ago. Still, fluidity in the Democratic race in recent days has increased (with support for Obama higher on some individual days than others, and occasionally surpassing support for Clinton), suggesting shifting vote preferences as the media buildup to Super Tuesday has intensified (and as campaign advertising and news has barraged Democratic voters in many Super Tuesday states).

You tell me. I figured it would help us cope with the waiting.

It turns out Appleton was Joe McCarthy’s home-town. I’m now headed home. Everything I saw here reminded me of why the Mid-West remains my favorite region in America. All the usual cliches – but these were among the most open-minded, warm-hearted, well-informed, polite but unrelenting crowds I’ve ever spoken with. Here’s hoping I get back in one piece, and in time for the results. Cheers from the road.

A Florida high school bans all expression of opinion – negative or positive – about homosexuality. Ed Brayton wants the principal fired. From what I’ve read in the ACLU briefing, he’s right:

Defendant Davis called Jane Doe into his office to discuss the incident on the previous Friday. Defendant Davis asked Jane Doe if she had told the teacher’s aide that she was a lesbian. Jane Doe answered "yes" in order to give context to the taunting. He then asked, "are you a lesbian?" Jane Doe answered yes. He explained that Jane Doe should not be gay and she should not tell people she is gay. Mr. Davis then instructed Jane Doe not to talk with the "middle school" girls. Defendant Davis also told Jane Doe that "gay pride" was a disgrace to the school.

"The candidates that can’t face Fox, can’t face Al Qaeda." – Roger Ailes, the Fox News CEO.

I watched the Super Bowl the other night. I remain unimpressed. But not quite as unimpressed as Brian Appleyard:

American football is, basically, rugby for a legalistic, health and safety obsessed nation. It also seems rather girly in that teams dress up in shoulder pads and shiny, skin-tight trousers and compete for some kind of bowl. Never mind, it seems to make them happy and they are showing no sign of getting a grip a cricket.

Some Israeli soldiers get disciplined.

"Can a Jedi lightsaber cut through Superman?" Answer: here.

Separated at birth?

Imagine you’re a Senate Republican. You think the health-care system is getting a bit out of control, and you find it unacceptable that 45 million Americans lack health insurance. So you’re thinking about signing on to Ron Wyden’s universal-coverage bill, as five of your GOP colleagues have already done. Then, along comes Krugman to tell you, oh, by the way, Kristol was right in 1993–if we get our foot in the door by passing health care, you can count on a broader Kucinichization of America. What are you gonna do? Chances are, you’ll be a lot less likely to support the bill.  Krugman continually insists Republicans will fight universal coverage tooth and nail at every turn, and then frames the issue in such a way as to ensure that they will. […]

It always surprised me that Karl Rove would constantly brag about how privatizing Social Security was the first step toward a piece-by-piece demolition of the social safety net–and then he proclaimed himself shocked, shocked when Democrats showed no interest in helping Bush partially privatize Social Security. It would be a bitter irony if universal health care were to elude our grasp again because liberals made the same mistake.

Jen Rubin thinks there is one reason:

There are many reasons, but I would suggest an overriding one: the surge. Without McCain’s determination on the surge and its resulting success, the race would look quite different. In that effort, McCain did show his personal characteristics (tenacity and bravery, most clearly) and many Republicans, conservatives included, came to see him as a warrior in the toughest policy battle in recent memory. It was the means by which he distinguished himself from his competition and by which he could appeal to skeptics who came to see his past policy heresies in greater perspective. (Or it could just be that the competition was very, very weak.)

I think she’s right that his bravery and honesty are indeed signs of a remarkable character. The question, however, is still in front of us, and is currently unknowable: What if McCain was brave but still wrong last spring? Yes, the surge did much better in stabilizing Iraq than Petraeus’s metrics predicted. But we still do not know for sure why. We are not able to judge yet whether the extra troops were the key; or whether it was the switcheroo of the Sunni tribes; or the strange passivity of the Sadrite militias; or exhaustion; or Iran’s self-interest; or what exactly. I’m not sure even Petraeus knows for sure.

What we do know is that the basis for a serious and lasting political settlement in Iraq does not exist and has not come appreciably closer under the surge. Since this was the declared goal of the action, and since we all agree such a reconciliation is critical for an Iraq that will not dissolve into a hot civil war if we leave, we may have simply paused the centrifugal disintegration. We have done so by pushing the military to the brink. I seriously doubt if Bush will withdraw troops below the pre-surge levels before he leaves office. It’s not in his nature to take responsibility for his own errors. So McCain might inherit an Iraq in just as rough a shape as 2005, but with the delusion that keeping 130,000 troops in that country is getting us somewhere.

Worse: McCain has signaled that he believes that all those who are skeptical of this strategy are betraying the troops. He has said this time and again – disgracefully, recklessly, and dangerously. Why dangerously? Because if the surge is truly why he is winning the nomination, then his presidency will be wedded to maximalist objectives in Iraq and may even legitimize the notion that withdrawal is some kind of attack on the troops. To have McCain run an anti-Dolchstoss campaign this fall would be a nightmare for a country at war. Maybe his tone will change. Maybe he is privately shrewder about what the surge has – and has not – accomplished. But the current rhetoric is ominous for the country.

(Photo: Alex Wong/Getty.)