Category: The Dish

Crowley:

I see a disaster averted for Hillary–but with Obama alive and well. In the unlikely event of a Hillary victory in South Carolina, Obama could face a crisis of his own. More likely, we are headed to February 5 and quite possibly beyond in what looks like a long war of attrition.

I’m not sure what to make of Nevada as such. It was another close race, with delegates closely divvied up. Clinton won in a campaign run by the son of Nevada’s Senator and Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid. Big whup. But it’s a win nonetheless, and momentum matters, and Obama failed to bring enough new voters to the polls to overcome Clinton’s base support. I don’t think it means that much unless it’s a sign that Latino voters won’t back a black candidate. If that’s true, several states that Obama might have won will go to Clinton. Meanwhile, we have a red-faced former president to look forward to:

Mark on your calendar Jan. 25 for an outburst by Bill Clinton somewhere in South Carolina. He has launched a tirade the day before each of his wife’s victories in Nevada and New Hampshire, claiming the process was unfairly stacked against her. If this keeps up, he’s going to require a stretcher by the last primary in Oregon come May.

33 – 30 as of this hour … and Fred prepares to quit? Ambers gives seven reasons for a McCain revival, including exquisite timing:

(6) Romney’s decision to pull out at the last minute…Giuliani’s decision to pull out earlier…

This makes it close to impossible for Rudy to pull this one out. Ron Paul beat him again! But Huckabee’s strong showing means he’s not out of it yet. If Fred leaves, Huckabee could even gain some Southern steam. It’s a Huckabee-McCain-Romney race now.

Heh:

As Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson said, "This is a race for delegates…It is not a battle for individual states. As David knows, we are well past the time when any state will have a disproportionate influence on the nominating process."

They’re showing a close race between McCain and Huckabee. Some interesting data here:

Evangelicals – Mike Huckabee 41%, John McCain 27%, Fred Thompson 14%, Mitt Romney 11%

Evangelicals may have made up more than half the voters. Still too close to call.

The man Fox News dismisses has now beaten Fox News’ unofficial candidate in three out of four early contests. Just saying …. You will notice that Hewitt counts Giuliani’s one delegate and omits Paul’s 6.

Plouffe complains. Here’s a first-hand account of alleged Clinton campaign sleaze. But Obama got 13 delegates anyway – one more than the Clintons.

Poll manager Renell Brown checks for a name on the voter registration list at the Penn Center voting precinct during the South Carolina Republican Primary January 19, 2008 in St. Helena Island, South Carolina. Voters took to the polls Saturday in South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary. By Stephen Morton/Getty Images.

A 51 – 45 win is good news for Clinton. But it doesn’t translate into a big advantage in delegates. There are 33 from Nevada:

Sixteen of the 25 delegates are allocated proportionally to presidential candidates based on the support for the candidates in each of the state’s three Congressional districts. Nine delegates are allocated to candidates based on the support among all of the delegates attending the convention. The remaining eight unpledged delegates are chosen from party leaders.

A Hispanic Luntz focus-group member predicts that Latinos will not vote for Obama. Why? A black woman wants to know. She gets no answer. But she knew the answer already. The Clintons’ greater emphasis on Obama’s race probably helped solidify Latino discomfort with a black candidate. But it was there already.

I didn’t know this:

Clinton had more than twice the number of Nevada unions supporting her as either Obama or John Edwards.

Edwards – in a union-dominated caucus – got 3.74 percent. Ouch.