Bombing Iran

Niall Ferguson looks at the likelihood of an attack any time soon:

The U.S. has 11 active aircraft carriers. Of these, the Kitty Hawk is in port in Japan. The Nimitz and Reagan are in San Diego. The Washington is in Norfolk, Va. The Lincoln and Stennis are in Washington state. And the Eisenhower, Vinson, Roosevelt and Truman are undergoing various sorts of refitting and maintenance checks in the vicinity of "WestLant" (Navy-speak for the western Atlantic). Only one — the Enterprise — is in the Persian Gulf.

At present, then, talk of World War III seems to be mere saber-rattling, not serious strategy. U.S. aircraft carriers can move fast, it’s true. The Lincoln’s top speed is in excess of 30 knots (30 nautical miles per hour). And it, along with the Truman, Eisenhower and Nimitz, are said to be "surge ready." But take a look at the map. It’s a very long way from San Diego to the Strait of Hormuz. Even from Norfolk, it takes 17.5 days for an aircraft carrier group to reach Bahrain. If you were Ahmadinejad, how worried would you be?

You can fact-check his Scottish ass here.

Romney On Healthcare

Finally, he cops to his own Hillary-style reform in Massachusetts. I’m with Ambers:

Even his rivals have to admit: when he admits he’s proud of his health care record in Massachusetts, when he’s not afraid to explain what he did, when he wields his accomplishment as a sword… he’s very compelling. Say what you will about the guy: he expended political capital, he worked hard, and he did something meaningful to reform the health care system in his state. Very few candidates on either side can say that.

Including Clinton.

Misreading “The Daily Show”

A reader writes:

You make the same mistake in your judgment of the Daily Show as many of your ilk.  The Daily Show has been less about attacking the administration as it is a commentary on the sorry state of the main stream media.  The Daily Show was funny before the Bush administration and it will be funny after because pundits and pols are here to stay.

I am aware that my ilk is parodied relentlessly on the Daily Show. But somehow I think Jon Stewart will not be quite as exercized when we’re shilling for Hillary.

It’s Stephen Colbert vs Ron Paul

Josh Green crunches the numbers on Stephen Colbert’s presidential run in South Carolina and judges that his best bet is with the Republicans. Who will suffer the most from Colbert’s entrance into the race? Drum roll, please:

I put Ron Paul in a separate category of "protest candidate," but he should be sweating, too. Paul’s supporters are among the most passionate and committed this cycle. But their profile is similar to that of  the voters Colbert might attract. (“Pot smokers,” a Republican consultant called them.) Anonymous presidential advisor: “If Colbert wants to do it he’s got to convert every young, semi-liberal Ron Paul supporter to the Colbert cause. If a young white male is going to vote, watches Comedy Central, and is internet savvy, chances are he’s a Ron Paul supporter.”

Suddenly my own demographic comes alarmingly into focus. Between Colbert and Paul, I really don’t know which way to turn.