A Third War Coming?

Well, we have learned to expect the unexpected. One possibility in the next few weeks is that the president will acquiesce to a winter draw-down of US troops in Iraq, but only so as to remove them as potential targets in the war he is planning to launch against Iran. Money quote from Barnett Rubin:

Someone whose proximity to knowledge of such things is so great that I cannot identify him in any other way, told my interlocutor that President Bush would be inclined to accept suggestions for withdrawing some troops from Iraq and moving as many as possible into more secure bases, as a safeguard against reprisals in the event of a U.S. attack on Iran.

I don’t know what to make of this. I hear all sorts of rumors. But it is clear to me that a sane management of the Iran problem is not something we should expect from this administration. A third war – started by Washington – is a real possibility. Since the president believes he needs no Congressional authorization for this, there may well be no checks on him, barring a military revolt.

Men, Sex and Toilets

An interesting study of the phenomenon from the 1970s casts some light:

Humphreys found that 54 percent of the men were married and living with their wives. He found 38 percent considered themselves neither bisexual nor homosexual. The men wanted a sexual release that was quick and would not endanger their standing with their family or society. Just 14 percent of the men identified themselves as living-in-the-open homosexuals.

"Most of the people who do these things are actually heterosexual," said Joel Jackson, youth advocacy coordinator for Project Ark, a St. Louis-based AIDS outreach group.

I’m not sure I buy that. I’ll bet many of them are closeted, conflicted or gay-and-married-to-a-woman. They say they’re hetero, sure. But the Onion had the best riposte to that. The simple truth is that men are horny creatures. If they can get quick and easy no-strings sex that satisfies them, they often will. That goes for straights as well as gays, which is why you tend not to hear of stings of lesbians hooking up in public places. But gay men have an advantage over straight men: a lot of willing partners who won’t call you the next day and won’t even ask your name. If straight guys had this option, you think they’d refrain? Please. That’s why women and social norms are the main historic constraints on male sexuality. And why, with gay men or straight men who don’t care who’s blowing them, the social norms, like civil marriage, are even more important. But the Christianist right wants no social acceptance of gay relationships and no random sex either. I’d say they need to pick one or the other, wouldn’t you? Or is that too much human reality for them to cope with?

A Georgian Renaissance?

From the former Soviet republic, a new leader says some bracing things:

A day or two later, at a dinner for Georgian businessmen, the president, [Mikhail Saakashvili], delivers a speech hammering home his well-honed message of self-help. "The government is going to help you in the best way possible, by doing nothing for you, by getting out of your way. Well, I exaggerate but you understand. Of course we will provide you with infrastructure, and help by getting rid of corruption, but you have all succeeded by your own initiative and enterprise, so you should congratulate yourselves."

Some infrastructure and no corruption. Why don’t we have more politicians like Saakashvili?

Richardson’s “Gaffe”

Glenn Reynolds is gloating; others are harrumphing about this remark by Bill Richardson in Des Moines:

"Iowa, for good reason, for constitutional reasons, for reasons related to the Lord, should be the first caucus and primary."

I wasn’t there, and so maybe he was deadly earnest. But isn’t it plausible that this was meant to be, you know, humorous?

Quote for the Day

"Overall, key legislation has not been passed, violence remains high, and it is unclear whether the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion in reconstruction funds. These results do not diminish the courageous efforts of coalition forces and progress that has been made in several areas, including Anbar Province," – the GAO report from David M. Walker, comptroller general of the United States.

Prison-Blogging

It’s both good rehabilitation and a decent way to bring more attention to conditions in jails in America – the world leader in locking people up – and across the world. Ethan Zuckerman has a useful round-up of several good prison blogs. And Scott Esposito puts them in a wider context here. Money quote from Zuckerman:

There are reasonable concerns about letting people in jail blog – [Michelle] Malkin references a horrific story about jail writings of a convicted murderer about his crimes being published online to taunt the victim’s family. But I’m not convinced that the story about a very sick man sending letters to another very sick man who posted them should get people to ignore the lessons of Wallen’s success. Helping inmates build skills for the outside world is a part of rehabilitation. And hearing what life is like in prison sheds light on an otherwise dark corner of our world, a corner that’s grown quite huge in modern American life.

More light, please.