Category: The Dish

"I do think my judgment is superior to [Cole’s] when it comes to the big picture. So, I have an idea: Since he doesn’t want to debate anything except his own brilliance, let’s make a bet. I predict that Iraq won’t have a civil war, that it will have a viable constitution, and that a majority of Iraqis and Americans will, in two years time, agree that the war was worth it. I’ll bet $1,000 (which I can hardly spare right now). This way neither of us can hide behind clever word play or CV reading. If there’s another reasonable wager Cole wants to offer which would measure our judgment, I’m all ears. Money where your mouth is, doc," – Jonah Goldberg, February 8, 2005.

I apologize for missing this a couple of days ago. Jonah wrote last Wednesday that the issue is moot because Cole declined to take the bet. But the underlying issue isn’t moot, is it? Goldberg made the bet to prove that his judgment was superior to Cole’s. As a simple empirical matter, it wasn’t. And the salient fact is not that Jonah got something wrong – we’re all human – but that he isn’t man enough to admit it, and make an accounting.

Update: I missed this accounting. Here it is, for the record. My bad.

Some fashion hints for Saturday night:

A church rebuilds after a tornado destroys it. Some see a cross in the clouds. Slide-show here.

Who are you going to believe? Mark Steyn at 11.18 am on Obama’s foreign policy "experience" or what he wrote at 1.45 pm on Obama’s foreign policy "interest"? C’mon, readers, you gotta keep up.

Here’s a YouTube of Senate hearings on June 26, 2006, about the impact and importance of Doug Feith’s outfit in rigging the intelligence to mislead the American public about the war against Iraq. The Congress was misled as well. Who is ultimately responsible for this profound betrayal of trust? As Larry Wilkerson says: three words. The Vice President. Here’s a thought: is there any precedent for impeaching the vice-president?

As the Republicans base themselves in the heartland of Dixie, and exploit the current enclaves of cynical division and ugly bigotry, Obama coopts the greatest Republican president:

"The life of a tall, gangly, self-made Springfield lawyer tells us that a different future is possible. He tells us that there is power in words. He tells us that there is power in conviction. That beneath all the differences of race and region, faith and station, we are one people. He tells us that there is power in hope."

Yes there is. And, yes, Obama is helping.

TaB still exists – barely.

Mark Steyn makes a predictable jab at Barack Obama’s defense of his foreign policy credentials. Here’s what Obama said:

"My experience in foreign policy is probably more diverse than most others in the field. I mean, I’m somebody who has actually lived overseas, somebody who has studied overseas. You know, I majored in international relations."

There’s no question that Obama needs major work in foreign policy. But he is obviously better informed at this point than, say, George W. Bush was in February 1999. And Obama’s internationalist pedigree seems to me a golden opportunity for the United States.

I don’t think many Americans have fully absorbed yet what the Bush administration has done to America’s soft power abroad, to the moral reputation of America, to the respect that many around the world once had for America’s democratic institutions, even if they differed from U.S foreign policy. Bush’s torture and detention policies, his cringe-inducing diplomacy, his proud lack of interest in other cultures and societies has deeply weakened this country’s international clout. Electing a half-African president, with Hussein as a middle name, who attended school in a Muslim country: it’s almost a p.r. agent’s dream for America. It would instantly give this country a fresh start in the world after the disaster of the Bush-Cheney years. It isn’t enough: Obama will need skills and determination in the terror war. But soft power helps; and Obama would put it on steroids. As for youth, Tony Blair was 43 when he became prime minister; Obama would be 48. What’s the problem?

(Photo of Obama’s formal – and exhilarating – announcement today by Scott Olson/Getty.)

The White House confirms Rove’s remark on immigration, one of the biggest gaffes in a long, long time. The MSM has nothing on it. Losers. Can you imagine if Pelosi had said it? Drudge would have a siren.

Giuliani is not, pace the NYT, gently shifting to the "right" on abortion and marriage. As best I can tell – and Ann Althouse has done more spadework here – he’s simply favoring a federalist answer to divisive, difficult, social and moral questions. As readers know, that’s what I’ve been favoring for quite a while as a small-c conservative truce in the culture wars. There truly is no need to forge a national consensus on issues like abortion and marriage. That’s why I’ve long opposed Roe and supported states’ rights on the issue of marriage equality. I don’t think Alabama is ready to have the same rights as California or Massachusetts. I feel sure they will one day, just as they eventually dropped slavery and bans on inter-racial marriage. The South is a very conservative place. Forcing them to move more quickly on issues of basic human dignity has historically led to even worse spasms of hatred, as Virginia has shown in the last decade in its vicious legal campaign against gay people.

It seems to me that if the conservative coalition is not going to fracture completely, then federalism is its only option. That way, centrists like McCain, Romney and Giuliani can actually become Republican presidents. Romney, of course, has tried to solve this problem by the most blatant, ugly and naked piece of political cynicism since Hillary focus-grouped her hair. But Giuliani is smarter. For him to adopt the anti-gay bigotry of the GOP base would not be smart politics. Ditto on abortion, where his position is mine: a personal abhorrence for abortion but a reluctant acceptance of its legality in the first trimester, combined with serious efforts to reduce its incidence. Opting to use federalism as the mechanism to allow the social conservatives to support him on other issues like national security and a more competent government, while personally supporting women’s freedom and gay dignity, is extremely smart politics.

I think Rudy is the best and most viable candidate the Republicans now have. Scandal may still derail him; but his tolerance, sense of fun, respect for alternative views on abortion, and connection with urban America should be regarded as assets, not liabilities for an increasingly marginalized GOP. Sure: appoint judges who think poorly of Roe. But let the states decide the substantive policy decisions on marriage and life.

And give McCain the Pentagon. They need him.

(Photo: Nicholas Roberts/AFP.)