The saddest fact of this war so far is how luke-warm the Arab states have been. In the Gulf War, many Arab states were terrified by Saddam’s belligerence and fully backed the military alliance over a period of months. This time, there is no real unanimity and only token support after only a few days. We cannot even use the American-built Saudi bases! And the Saudis have helped foster and finance the Wahhabism that gave birth to al Qaeda. Arafat is doing what he can to avoid either being killed by his own people or siding with the losers, as he did last time. Mubarak gave a terse word of support yesterday. But no major Arab regime has given unqualified backing to the strikes in Afghanistan and the Pakistani leader is walking a tightrope. So what on earth is the point of Colin Powell’s marvelous alliance? The answer is obviously propagandistic. Any sign that this is a Western assault on a Muslim fundamentalist threat is rightly resisted in Washington because it would give bin Laden a propaganda coup and perhaps deepen the conflict unnecessarily. But the idea that we can keep this broad coalition going for much longer – or anywhere near as long as this effort will require – seems to me to be far-fetched. As each day goes by, as the public opinion of the Arab street makes itself heard more defiantly, and as the corrupt regimes in the Arab world get even more scared of the masses, something will crack. At some point, we will be forced to do something the Arab states will have to condemn: an attack on Iraq (I wish); an encounter with Hamas; a collateral destruction of something that can be made out to have some religious significance; or something simply unpredictable. What do we do then? That will be the moment of truth for Powell, Bush, Cheney and Blair. My bet is that we will continue with a fractured coalition and a widening conflict, at which point the two sides are going to look an awful lot like a Sam Huntington nightmare. No, we have no quarrel with Islam itself. No, we don’t want to unite the Arab world against the West. But we sure do have a problem with radicalized political Islam of the Wahhabist strain; further terrorist acts will only intensify our resolve; and we cannot and will not abandon Israel. Therefore some Western-Muslim conflict is close to inevitable. I think the chances of this conflict restricting itself to Afghanistan with this coalition intact are next to zero. At some point, we will have to decide whether to win this one and walk right into a clash of civilizations; or walk away and merely postpone the clash for an even bloodier future re-match. Meanwhile, our two most important allies are Britain and Russia, the last two conquerors of Afghanistan. How very reassuring and unnerving at the same time.
THE POINT OF HUMOR: During all this horror, I’ve found it a great relief to laugh. It took a while, since I spent most of the first week bawling. But my first smile came on September 12, when some friends and I rented a video of twelve Bugs Bunny classics because we just couldn’t bear reality for much longer. Cartoons transport you to another world – and Bugs’ is about as calming and uplifting as one could find. Can you imagine Bugs versus the Taliban? No contest. A few days later, we watched six episodes of AbFab, another outside-the-box spirit-lifter. And as the weeks went by, it became increasingly possible to laugh not at the event but at our responses – as the Onion triumphantly showed. As to finding humor in the conflict itself, I don’t think we’ve made enough fun of bin Laden himself yet. Like Hitler, bin Laden is not just evil, he’s ridiculous – and seeing his absurdity is a critical part of overcoming fear. Maybe it’s because I’d just seen (for the umpteenth time) “Monty Python and the Holy Grail” but that video of the turbaned maniac surrounded by characters out of central casting struck me as faintly hilarious. Where are the knights that say “Ni!” when you need them? I see no reason why we shouldn’t laugh at bin Laden’s preposterous medievalism, with that microphone perched in front of him, like a cross between Phil Donahue and the Ayatollah Khomeini. Laughter is a vital response to terror: it neutralizes fear. I remember that from the AIDS years and it kept many of us alive. Besides, one thing that separates the civilized world from these religious thugs is that we have a sense of humor. Let’s use it. And let’s start by occasionally laughing at the monstrous spectacle of these bearded beady-eyed bullies on a rock.
IRAQ WATCH: There are signs that the Bush administration gets the Iraq problem. The U.S. ambassador to the U.N., John Negroponte, marched into the Iraqis’ U.N. office and told them to keep their heads down in the coming days and weeks. The anthrax attack in Florida might well have an Iraqi connection. As the Washington Post reports, “Czech officials said that Mohamed Atta, believed to have piloted one of the commercial airliners that slammed into the World Trade Center, met in Prague with Ahmed Khalil Ibrahim Samir Al-Ani, a former consul and second secretary at the Iraqi Embassy in Prague, before traveling to the United States in June 2000. Al-Ani was expelled from the Czech Republic last April for what the Czech foreign ministry described as activities ‘incompatible with his diplomatic status.'” There’s no sign yet that we’re preparing an attack on Iraq, but every sign that this is still an option – if one that Colin Powell seems sure to oppose. Lets hope events make this second phase possible; and that Colin Powell sees the light.
CORRECTION: Only one poor fellow has died of anthrax in Florida.
THOUGHT FOR THE DAY: “A further reason for my hatred of National Socialism and other ideologies is quite a primitive one. I have an aversion to killing people for the fun of it. What the fun is, I did not quite understand at the time, but in the intervening years the ample exploration of revolutionary consciousness has cast some light on this matter. The fun consists in gaining a pseudo-identity through asserting one’s power, optimally by killing somebody – a pseudo-identity that serves as a substitute for the human self that has been lost.” – Eric Voegelin, “Autobiographical Reflections,” (dictated 1973, published 1989).
A NEW WORLD ORDER CTD.: Tunku Varadarajan has a good little piece on the complementarity of the British and American expeditionary forces in the Wall Street Journal today. He’s also right about the extraordinary usefulness of the British alliance right now – diplomatically, rhetorically and militarily. But I’d go one step further. It seems to me that crises like the current one tell you something about underlying geo-political realities. One of those realities is that Britain is now and has been for the better part of a century far closer in culture, interests, and economics to the United States than to Continental Europe. When push comes to shove, the British elites know this, use this, rely on this. But in calmer times, they gravitate toward the often tortuous goal of immersion in a pan-European super-state. In Tony Blair’s speech last week, you saw this tension in full force. On the one hand, he gave one of the most pro-American speeches in the history of British politics. In the same breath, he reiterated his support for British entry into the euro. What gives? In the aftermath of this war, one thing that could and should be revived is an attempt to add more political heft to what Churchill understood as the deep connection of the English-speaking
peoples. Why not counter the lure of the euro by inviting Britain to join NAFTA? Instead of pegging the pound to the euro, why not link it to the dollar? The EU will of course object. But in some ways, NAFTA membership for Britain would be a great way to call the EU’s bluff. If the point of the EU is in part free trade, why does an expansion of free trade between an EU member and the U.S. represent a threat to anyone? If Britain’s membership in NAFTA were to lead to a further opening up of European markets to Americans and vice-versa, what’s the harm? Except to French hopes that Europe will eventually become not a vital partner for America, but a menacing rival.
SCHEER MADNESS: An overdue hit-job on the insufferable and mendacious Los Angeles Times columnist, Robert Scheer, by the often sharp and fair website, Spinsanity. Ben Fritz is particularly acute in pointing out how Scheer first invented the notion that the United States had given $43 million in aid to the Taliban and so was hypocritical in turning on the mullahs in Kabul and Kandahar after 9/11. In fact, that $43 million was food aid, dispensed through the U.N. and non-governmental agencies, bypassing the Islamo-fascist leadership. Well, we all make mistakes. What’s truly troubling about Scheer is that even after this was revealed, he continued disseminating the lie. In fact, he larded it up, hedged it with new spin, and fomented its repetition in such places as The Nation, The New Yorker, The Denver Post and Salon. Read this piece and never read Scheer again.