Will Snowden Get Asylum?

Max Fisher suspects he’ll have trouble qualifying, writing that Snowden’s “best case could be to claim membership in a persecuted social group, perhaps by arguing that the U.S. persecutes whisteblowers.” In a follow-up post, Fisher goes into more detail:

In the end … a case as high-profile as Snowden’s may come down more to politics than law. Musalo suggested that, based on her experience, Snowden should look at different countries’s case law on asylum and in particular on whistleblowers, whether their extradition law has an exception for political offenses, what conventions they’ve signed to and how they’ve applied them. But he should also ask, she said, “What country wants to stand up to the U.S.?” Granting political asylum is often a matter of not just law but also foreign policy and international relations. “Although it should not be perceived this way, a grant of asylum to an individual from Country X is seen sometimes as an indictment of Country X.” So who wants to stick their thumb in Uncle Sam’s eye?

Dylan Matthews chats with extradition expert Christopher Blakesley about the countries Snowden should have gone to:

Blakesley says he would tell him to go to Iceland (where Snowden has hinted he may be headed) or to France. Sweden, Finland, or another Nordic country would do in a pinch; Iceland, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway all adhere to a similar extradition model, and are, according to Blakesley, “very independent and strong in protecting folks in situations such as this.”

So far, one Icelandic member of parliament is pushing to aid Snowden. And, if all else fails, he may have a shot at asylum in Russia.

Turkey Is Still Broiling

TURKEY-POLITICS-UNREST

This morning (NYT), one day after Erdogan scheduled a meeting with the demonstrators, riot police rushed into Taksim Square and subdued the lingering protestors with tear gas and water canons. By all accounts so far, police were provoked by a few people throwing rocks and molotov cocktails:

Amid Tuesday’s clashes, Erdogan made it more than clear that he had come to the end of his tolerance. “To those who … are at Taksim and elsewhere taking part in the demonstrations with sincere feelings: I call on you to leave those places and to end these incidents and I send you my love. But for those who want to continue with the incidents I say: ‘It’s over.’ As of now we have no tolerance for them,” Erdogan said, speaking in the capital, Ankara.

Can Oz, “the owner of the biggest literary publishing house in the country,” was there and fled the scene:

Some say the protesters’ firebomb attack was staged, and while I don’t have certain proof that this was the case, it wouldn’t surprise me: over the past few days I have witnessed so many lies from the police and government that I don’t think I can ever trust them again.

I have spent days with the protesters – withstanding another gas attack, cheering, singing chants and sharing food in the park – and I haven’t encountered any signs of weapons or violence on their behalf. These people made me feel like I’m living a dream.

The purpose of my visit to Taksim Square was to listen to the press conference the Taksim Solidarity movement had prepared; and I was confident that I could trust the chief of police and Istanbul mayor’s assurance that the park would not be attacked. Then, right before the press conference was about to start, gas rained down over our heads once again. It was a moment of crushing disappointment. Coughing, wiping tears out of my eyes, practically blind, I realised that our government would never understand the meaning of the passive resistance that Martin Luther King Jr and Mahatma Gandhi were famous for. That’s when I ran out of the park.

At this point it seems the government is more concerned with economic blowback than the unrest itself. The Turkish stock market has taken a dive while the lira “has dropped to an 18-month low”:

Citing the “excessive volatility” caused by “the international and domestic developments during the last month,” the Turkish Central Bank announced today that it would take steps to stabilize the lira. The announcement triggered a rebound for the currency, but it came as police unexpectedly reentered Taksim Square, igniting clashes with demonstrators.

The Turkish government’s inability so far to bring the protests to a peaceful end is likely to have more far-reaching impacts on the economy than new bank policies. Stability has long been one of Turkey’s most attractive features to investors. Without it, the nation’s economy could face growing challenges. These economic shortfalls may also erode support for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Michael Koplow looks ahead:

It is tough to see which side is going to give here. Erdoğan does not want to back down, but my instincts tell me that as he is reminded of just how much his popularity depends on the economy and as he faces the prospect of losing the bid for the 2020 Turkish Olympics, he will try to come up with some sort of solution to end the chaos in the streets without having to go so far as to issue a formal full-blown apology. The fact that there is no opposition party poised to take advantage of the situation makes backing down slightly easier for him to do, and even Erdoğan understands just how crucial it is for his and his party’s longterm political future to make sure the Turkish economy keeps humming along.

(Photo: A protestor wearing a gas mask walks in front of a burning car on Taksim square on June 11, 2013. Turkish police fired massive volleys of tear gas and jets of water to disperse thousands of anti-government demonstrators in Istanbul’s Taksim Square on June 11, after earlier apparently retreating. The gas sent the crowd scrambling, raising tensions on a 12th day of violence after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned he had ‘no more tolerance’ for the mass demonstrations. By Bulent Kilic/AFP/Getty Images)

Do You Trust A Corporation More Than Your Government? Ctd

Several readers express their distrust of the government:

There is a key distinction that has not been raised. As some readers have mentioned, we give up personal data to Internet companies. This is the trade-off we all make for using the Internet. While some companies are able to track and profile your usage, you can somewhat control your tracking preferences.

The government, on the other hand, apparently has access to not only your Internet usage (or metadata) but also other metadata (e.g. phone calls), and the ability to tie it all together – more so than any private company. The government also has the power to investigate, subpoena records, arrest, interrogate and generally make someone’s life pretty miserable. Which is fine by me if there is a high degree of confidence that the government pursues only bad guys.

Without getting into a discussion of slippery slopes and what may happen if low-level bureaucrats start playing with readily available data, my main concerns are regarding:

1) the standard that must be met before a specific individual is targeted and 2) the recourse available to a person who is incorrectly targeted. On #1 it’s not clear how much rigor is applied by FISA judges, and on #2 who knows what one can do.

James Fallows has a series of recent posts about private pilots being harassed because they apparently fit some profile.  And I’m sure you’ve heard (and perhaps even written) of people who have mistakenly been put on the TSA’s do-not-fly list, and have no way of getting off the list.

For me the real issue is about transparency, and knowing the rules. There’s obviously a trade-off between privacy and security imperatives – this is a discussion we should be having in the country. I’m not sure our elected representatives are having it on our behalf. Or if they are, they can’t tell us what they’ve discussed because it’s all secret.

Another is on the same page:

Of course I trust corporations more than my government. Corporations cannot have me followed. Corporations cannot arrest me. Corporations cannot send an armed SWAT team into my home. The US government can do all that. And the US government has an ugly history of doing that. It’s been a few decades since COINTELPRO was shut down, but it seems entirely likely that the FBI would do it again if they could. We should not risk the FBI using PRISM to monitor dissidents by labeling their surveillance targets as terrorists the way they did with occupy protestors. We should not risk police forces like those in New York and Chicago getting access to a system like PRISM for monitoring the local mosques or plot against future Fred Hamptons. Our government has a long history of abusing its powers.

To prevent abuse of PRISM, we need to shut it down now, before it falls into the hands of a government likely to use it for very bad acts. There will be future Lyndon Johnsons and Richard Nixons. We should not make it easier for them to abuse those who elect them.

Another:

The consequences of my information being in the hands of a corporation aren’t that severe. More likely than not, the primary effect on me is that I’m going to be served with targeted marketing. At the very, very worst, some of this data might have some conceivable impact on my credit score. As such, my concerns over the abuse of that data is fairly mild.

If the government misuses my data, however, the consequences could be dire. If I end up as a false positive on an NSA terrorist watch list, my life is now under suspicion and I have very little recourse to address that suspicion. Even if the only consequence is that I end up on a no-fly list, my life can experience serious disruptions and inconveniences. And, of course, we have no way of knowing what the NSA is actually doing with that information, so a certain degree of legitimate paranoia seems warranted.

Another:

With the NSA spying, you cannot opt-out.  You can’t even know you are being targeted, and prior to Snowden’s decision, you can’t even know that a program exists that could target your supposedly secure communications and purchases!  I think most would agree with me that you cannot declare opt-in situations to be the equivalent opt-out.  They simply are not, and American citizens should realize that they are trading away a great deal of their freedoms for precious little security under this program.

Can Modern Men Have It All?

After absorbing the myriad discussions about whether the modern woman can have it all, Richard Dorment flips the question:

According to a study released in March by the Pew Research Center, household setups like ours are increasingly the norm: 60 percent of two-parent homes with kids under the age of eighteen 543716_3767267616092_1491403777_nare made up of dual-earning couples (i.e., two working parents). On any given week in such a home, women put in more time than men doing housework (sixteen hours to nine) and more time with child care (twelve to seven). These statistics provoke outrage among the “fair share” crowd, and there is a sense, even among the most privileged women, that they are getting a raw deal. …

But the complete picture reveals a more complex and equitable reality. Men in dual-income couples work outside the home eleven more hours a week than their working wives or partners do (forty-two to thirty-one), and when you look at the total weekly workload, including paid work outside the home and unpaid work inside the home, men and women are putting in roughly the same number of hours: fifty-eight hours for men and fifty-nine for women.

How you view those numbers depends in large part on your definition of work, but it’s not quite as easy as saying men aren’t pulling their weight around the house. (Spending eleven fewer hours at home and with the kids doesn’t mean working dads are freeloaders any more than spending eleven fewer hours at work makes working moms slackers.) These are practical accommodations that reflect real-time conditions on the ground, and rather than castigate men, one might consider whether those extra hours on the job provide the financial cover the family needs so that women can spend more time with the kids.

He notes a shift in the attitude that men have toward their “home-work balance” over the past 50 years:

“In 1977,” [researcher Ellen Galinsky] says, “there was a Department of Labor study that asked people, ‘How much interference do you feel between your work and your family life?’ and men’s work-family conflict was a lot lower than women’s.” She saw the numbers begin to shift in the late 1990s, and “by 2008, 60 percent of fathers in dual-earning couples were experiencing some or a lot of conflict compared to about 47 percent of women. I would go into meetings with business leaders and report the fact that men’s work-family conflict was higher than women’s, and people in the room — who were so used to being worried about women’s advancement — couldn’t believe it.” What they couldn’t believe was decades of conventional wisdom — men secure and confident in the workplace, women somewhat less so — crumbling away as more and more fathers began to invest more of their time and energy into their home lives.

My “Faith” In Obama

Obama Celebrates His Birthday At DNC Fundraiser In Chicago

Freddie deBoer struggles to reconcile my book with my recent blogging:

If you asked me to define one trait that would be least reconcilable with the conservatism espoused in The Conservative Soul, it would be deference to a particular leader. I cannot square the recognition that all political leadership is subject to corruption and failure with the kind of faith Sullivan regularly shows in Obama. And this becomes a deeper confusion when you see how this trust has filtered down from Obama to the people and programs beneath him.

He asks:

How can a man who admits the elusive nature of prudential judgment trust the judgments of thousands of totally unaccountable government functionaries? How can he believe that a system bent on total secrecy and total denial of oversight or restraint would represent a culture that could instill character? How could he look at this vast, dehumanized and dehumanizing surveillance system and not see a potentially failed solution to a problem that is, in perspective, a fact of life in the modern world? I cannot reconcile the philosophy with the individual commitments. I no longer really know how to read Andrew, at this point.

Well, I am most grateful for Freddie’s deep reading of my book, The Conservative Soul. But I dispute the idea that I have hero-worshiped Obama or failed to apply the same principles against him as I did against Bush, whose offenses were nonetheless immensely greater. The record of my tough criticisms of Obama on various issues is there for all to read. From dragging his feet on gay rights to not prosecuting war criminals to failing to end the war on marijuana to intervening in Libya without Congressional approval to the surge in Afghanistan … it’s a long list.

At the same time, judging political events in real times does require some grip on the character of those in office, and the inevitable compromises that requires, and I remain an admirer of Obama’s temperament, pragmatism and small-c conservatism. And I don’t think that abstract ideological issues can ignore the role of human beings and their prudential judgments over time. A conservative will always recognize that there is no substitute for character in political leaders and that representative government requires some basic form of – sorry – minimal trust if it is to function at all. Skepticism is not anarchism; real conservatives like strong, but limited, government. That’s why, though I have serious libertarian leanings, I still call myself a conservative. That’s why I see more insight in, say, David Brooks’ column today, than many on the libertarian right or civil liberties left.

So, yes, there is a real potential for abuse of a system like PRISM. But are we actually going to prevent government from using Big Data, while Google plumbs its depths even further and Buzzfeed even schedules its content by chasing algorithms? At least there is some minimal check on the government, a judicial court. It almost certainly needs more muscle, as this reader suggests, and that might be a helpful reform. There is also Congressional oversight – another important check. Yes, I remain skeptical and opposed to the state secrets that Obama has maintained which make it impossible for the public even to have a debate about trade-offs or those in Congress to protest publicly. But that doesn’t mean denying the realities of the low-level Jihadist insurgency we and the Muslim world are struggling against. Back to Freddie:

I would like for Sullivan to consider the possibility that he is placing far too much faith in a bureaucratic apparatus that contains a multitude of agendas and all of the potential for mismanagement and bad behavior that engenders… a scary thought, when that apparatus is connected to military power.

These programs are run by people, and people are fallible and frequently immoral. (It’s worth noting that many of the people working in these programs are the same people who worked under the Bush administration that Sullivan has rightfully criticized.) It would take so little for all of this to go wrong.

Yes, I know, and am open to such a debate. In fact, I’d welcome such a debate, as long as we can discuss trade-offs and not absolutes, as so many civil libertarians prefer. And I didn’t criticize Bush for this. So it seems plain weird to say that my position on this kind of meta-data is somehow a function of faith in one leader, rather than a consistent position. And if my position on this is that it may be, in fact, the least worst kind of surveillance, then again, I fail to see where I have gone astray.

From the very beginning of this conflict on 9/11, I argued both for pursuing this lethal fundamentalist insurgency on civilization and for protecting our civil liberties as much as we can in the process. I understood this would require pragmatic judgment and remain very open to the idea that we now may have a chance to seize this moment for a broader and necessary debate. I think Obama has pursued a balance in ways that Bush never fully did until the influence of Cheney receded. Here’s a money quote from the Dish on the very day of the attack:

The one silver lining of this is that we may perhaps be shaken out of our self-indulgent preoccupations and be reminded of what really matters: our freedom, our security, our integrity as a democratic society. This means we must be vigilant not to let our civil liberties collapse under the understandable desire for action. To surrender to that temptation is part of what these killers want… The task in front of us to somehow stay civilized while not shrinking from the face of extinguishing – by sheer force if necessary – the forces that would eclipse us.

I believe that is still the task, that Bush massively over-reached (unforgivably so on torture) and that Obama has improved on Bush immeasurably – no more torture, no more completely unchecked executive power, and a genuine attempt to close Gitmo – and may now be able to lead from behind on civil liberties with cover from parts of the public. At the same time, I’d welcome that. But PRISM? Big Data exists whether we like it or not. Not to use it and use more targeted forms of surveillance would unnerve me more. And yes, of course, there is potential for abuse – which is why I’m delighted it is now out in the open, where it should be. But we may find that the public’s view of the correct balance is not where Rand Paul or Glenn Greenwald or Freddie want it to be. And in the end, it’s their call.

(Photo: Scott Olson/Getty)

Demeaning The Friendships Of Women

In a review of the new film Hannah Arendt, Michelle Dean appraises the subject’s friendship with Mary McCarthy:

McCarthy, played by Janet McTeer, is blowsily silly — and though she could be wicked and subversively funny, McCarthy was far from silly. Nearly every exchange between the two women is about men and love. It is symptomatic of a trend, I think. We are in a moment of unprecedented popular interest in the matter of female friendship, and this has been greeted as a triumph for feminism. But what we get, for all that, is rather flat portraiture: women giggling about crushes before finding real fulfillment in heterosexual romance and the grail of marriage. It’s a shame, because many women hunger for models of intellectual self-confidence, and female friendships can be rich soil for them.

McCarthy and Arendt’s “love affair” — as their friends described it — was a union of ferocious minds, but it was hardly unusual. Women talk about ideas among themselves all the time. It would be nice if the culture could catch up. To give just a sample of the subjects McCarthy and Arendt talked and wrote to each other about: George Eliot, Cartesianism, Eldridge Cleaver, Kant, G. Gordon Liddy, and Sartre. Both women were members of the Partisan Review crowd, who spent much of their time talking about Stalin and Trotsky.

This also requires a better cultural appreciation of the virtue of friendship. A powerful friendship can be as intense as a love-affair and more stable over time. The notion that women cannot and do not have the finest forms of friendship, spanning a whole range of thought and ideas and experiences, is so absurd it’s amazing it survives. But then we live in a world of the Real Housewives of New Jersey. Sometimes, it seems we may be going backward.

Bankers vs The Rest Of Us

It now seems clear enough to me – and to Bruce Bartlett – that the sheer size and lucrative bounty in the financial sector is now a real drag on growth, jobs and a core enemy of less inequality. They’re a rentier class, increasingly able to buy special protection in Washington, and wasting so many brains on so much emptiness and greed. This is a trend that has to be checked politically. Tax reform might help:

Compensation in the financial services industry was comparable to that in other industries until 1980. But since then, it has increased sharply and those working in financial services now make 70 percent more on average.

What Has Obama Done For Black America?

After an extensive review of Obama’s speeches to black audiences over the years, TNC spells out his disappointment:

When Barack Obama makes a moral appeal, he is not performing a Sista Souljah tactic. He is speaking sincere beliefs that run deep in his community. I happen to think those beliefs elide some difficult truths about the nature of power. In the case of the president, I think they elide the fact that there are actual policy steps he could be taking and isn’t. I think yesterday’s post on marijuana busts really brings this home. You will not find me among those arguing for deadbeat dads. But putting away the X-Box will not change those incredible arrest numbers. Policy will. As it stands, the president is on the wrong side of that policy. …

My disappointment with how Obama addresses black people originates in the fact that I believe he, quite literally, knows better and could do better. It is not enough to point out that crowds of black people cheer him on. Greatness demands that you not just make people cheer, that you not just grant them “Oh my people” catharsis, but that you make them think. This is about legacy. This is about asking whether “First Black President” will simply be an accidental honorific.

In a later post, he describes his own approach when speaking at predominantly black schools:

What I generally try to do is avoid messages about “hard work” and “homework,” not because I think those things are unimportant, but because I think they put the cart before the horse. The two words I try to use with them are “excitement” and “entrepreneurial.” I try to get them to think of education not as something that pleases their teachers, but as a ticket out into a world so grand and stunning that it defies their imagination. My belief is that, if I can get them to understand the “why?” of education, then the effort and hard work and long study hours will come after. I don’t know how true that is in practice, but given that I am asked to speak from my own experience, that is the lesson I have drawn.

(Video: Obama speaking to the Apostolic Church of God on Chicago’s South Side on Father’s Day, 2008. Full transcript here.)

An Ellsburg Or A Manning?

Tom Ricks sees the actions of Edward Snowden more in line with the Pentagon Papers than Wikileaks:

I opposed what Manning did. I thought his actions were reckless. He did a data dump, making secret information public without knowing what it was or what he was really doing. I remember mentioning, for example, an Ethiopian journalist who wound up in the hot seat because of the WikiLeaks release. Manning’s act was that of a goofball anarchist.

Snowden’s, by contrast, seems to have been one of civil disobedience. That is, he seems to have known exactly what he was doing. Snowden does seem to have some elements of Manning, a mixed-up kid, but on balance seems to me to be more of an Ellsberg — that is, a disillusioned insider who was appalled by what he saw and made a choice to disclose the existence of certain government programs.

Civil disobedience has a cost though:

[D]o I think Snowden should go to jail? Yes, I think he should expect to. Martin Luther King, Jr. did too, when he consciously broke the law in protest. Breaking the law to make a point and then doing some time in consequence fit well within the American tradition. That said, knowing what I know now, I would hope it would be just a few months on a prison farm.

A reader chimes in:

When you “Money Quoted” Jeff Toobin taking Mr. Snowden down a few notches, one aspect of his quote was really nothing but unproven hyperbole, clearly intend to add a touch of smear. Toobin wrote: “The question, of course, is whether the government can function when all of its employees (and contractors) can take it upon themselves to sabotage the programs they don’t like. That’s what Snowden has done.”

Sabotage? Actually no, that’s not what he’s done.

While I’m not going to defend him or everything he’s done, I’m equally not going to go along with smearing him for what he plainly has not done. There is no concrete, definitive evidence that he has sabotaged the NSA’s programs. He simply exposed their existence. I’m sorry but the mere exposure of the programs’ existence is not equal to sabotage (no matter how much the secrecy freaks in the government security-intelligence-complex might cry otherwise).

Let’s be clear: sabotage would have been if he’d done something like inserting a computer virus into the NSA’s systems that shut the whole thing down, or destroyed their collected data, or the like. Exposure of the mere existence of the programs is not in and of itself sabotage. In fact, since this exposure late last week, the NSA has presumably been continuing to actively vacuum up all the same ongoing telephone call data, Facebook posts, Google search data, emails, and the rest without missing a beat … and, I’m sure, are still doing so as I type this. Exposed? Yes. Sabotaged? I don’t quite think so.

Hero Or Traitor? Or A “Bullshit Choice”?

A wider debate is brewing. Ed Kilgore kicks it off with an examination of the widening gulf between those labeling Snowden a traitor and others calling him a hero:

While the wind’s blowing pretty hard against Snowden in Washington, he continues to receive widespread tribute as a hero—which is, as you might know, a bit different from being a traitor—among civil libertarians at both ends of the political spectrum. Ron Paul publicly thanked both Snowden and his top journalistic conduit, Glenn Greenwald, for “exposing the truth about what our government is doing in secret.”

This is the polarized terrain on which the president will eventually have to take some sort of stand, recognizing that his past direct and indirect statements defending the kind of activities Snowden exposed, and harshly criticizing leakers, limit his freedom of action, even if he’s inclined to separate himself from the treason-shouters.

Dan Amira notes that the question is gaining steam online and calls it “a bullshit choice”:

[T]here’s also plenty of room for nuance between those two poles. You could say, for example, that Snowden did the wrong thing but with the best of intentions. If Snowden’s goal was to hurt America, there were better ways to do it. He could have sold his secrets to the Chinese. Snowden gave them to reporters. And, if you take his words at face value, his motivation is protecting America’s core values, not opening the country up to terrorism.

Or: Snowden kick-started an important debate, one that we couldn’t have had without him, but some of the information he leaked will make the country less safe. Hero? Eh, not quite. Traitor? Hardly.

Or: Snowden is a true patriot, but it was so mean what he did to his girlfriend.

Meanwhile, Scott McConnell thinks prosecuting Snowden will be hard:

I think the Obama administration will have a very difficult time prosecuting Edward Snowden. They can go after Bradley Manning because they have him, in uniform and in prison, and thus shut off from normal communication. Americans are unable to perceive how normal, probably likeable, and how similar to most of us he probably is. But Snowden comes across like everyone’s ideal of a really smart, techie, individualist kid. No high school degree, yet speaks as eloquently as an assistant Harvard professor. Smart enough to rise rapidly in the world without credentials, reminding us vividly computers really are a new frontier, the one field outside of sports and music where classic American Horatio Alger tropes have any continued relevance.