The Dish

Steve Chapman argues that surveillance cameras are overrated:

Leave aside those airy privacy concerns for the moment. Installing, maintaining, and monitoring thousands of these devices, as in New York and Chicago, costs millions of dollars. Absent cameras, that money could be spent on beat cops, patrol cars, forensic equipment, jail cells, you name it. The point of any law enforcement tool is not just to do some good but also to do some good at a reasonable cost compared with the alternatives. It’s by no means clear that surveillance cameras even come close to meeting that standard.

He points to a 2005 report by the British government concluding that its four million cameras “produced no overall effect” on crime. Carol Rose came to the same conclusion regarding the latest bomb scare:

New York City’s “steel ring” of 3,000 surveillance cameras (including 82 in Times Square alone) played virtually no role in capturing the alleged bad guy, according to New York Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly. Instead, it was a couple of alert citizens, responsive cops on the street, effective police detectives following a trail of low-tech clues — VIN numbers, house keys and a cell phone number that Shahzad gave to the woman he bought the truck from — that helped nab Shahzad before he escaped to Dubai.

However, while the man in the surveillance footage ended up not being Shahzad, publicizing it as such “may have had the effect of falsely reassuring the real suspect that he wasn’t a target,” according to the AP.

The Beeb predicts a hung parliament:

The BBC projection suggests David Cameron's Conservatives will have 306 seats. If there are 10 Unionists elected in Northern Ireland then Mr Cameron might be able to command 316 – probably still slightly too few for him to be sure of winning a Queen's Speech. But Labour and the Lib Dems together would have 317 seats, according to the BBC figures, which even with three SDLP MPs would still leave them at 320 – again probably just a few votes short.

Expect a ton of analysis and commentary on the Dish later today. But first a quick summary of yesterday's coverage:

Massie provided a reading guide to Election Day, Nate Silver sketched out scenarios, Cameron sounded confident, and Andrew made a final push for the Tories. We tracked the exit polling here, here, here, here, here, and here. First results here and the latest here.

The Lib-Dems looked in trouble, a Lib-Lab coalition seemed doubtful, Julian Glover figured Brown was toast, Cameron and Brown kept their seats, James Forsyth sized up the spin, Bagehot assessed the high turnout, and Nick Robinson griped about all the problems at the polls. Henry Farrell worried about a Tory collapse, Tunku Varadarajan blundered, a reader sent a view from Ireland, Paul Mitchell glanced at hung parliaments around Europe, and Andrew wondered about the uncertain outcome.

Drunk-voting coverage here, here, and here. More antics here. Regarding the image above, a reader writes:

Thanks for the post where you provided a link to the BBC. But did you notice the volume control on the streaming video app? I took a screenshot.

Context.

— C.B.

Check the latest at the BBC.

Brown has first dibs at trying to form a coalition. This is interesting:

Nick Robinson, the BBC's political editor, is claiming that talks between Labour and the Lib Dems about forming a coalition government have already begun. The Tories will end the night with more seats, but convention dictates that the party currently in power gets the first chance to show it can form a new government.

But it's unimaginable that Brown would stay on – which is why the Tories' current message is that th election was a referendum on Labour and they lost. Could Clegg be PM and head a 'progressive' Lib-Lab government? Unlikely, especially after his party's poor showing tonight. But the results could still surprise us in the morning. The Telegraph again:

It's such a mixed picture. Tories are picking up seats they didn't necessarily expect to win, and failing to take some slam-dunks. The Lib Dem vote is – bafflingly – down in many places, but they've picked up a couple of seats. There has been a 12pc swing against Labour in some of their heartlands, but elsewhere they've gained vote share. Messy messy messy.

The knife-edge Tory-Lib-Dem marginal of Guildford, where my sister and mum live, swung strongly to the Tories:

The seat was No1 on the Lib Dem target list (they only needed a swing of 0.09pc) but Tory candidate Anne Milton increased her majority to 7,782. Tonight may be even worse for the Lib Dems than the dreadful early exit poll indicated.

It seems as if the Lib-Dem surge might have crashed – or certainly failed to translate into nearly as many seats as some had expected. The swing does not appear to be uniform at all – with individual seats being far more unpredictable than usual. The Tories do look like being easily the biggest party – but the impact of marginal seats has yet to be calculated.

While we wait, it’s worth noting one lovely ritual of election night in Britain. Even the party leaders have to stand on a stage with the other candidates vying for their seat and listen to the results. They are just members of parliament at this point. They are not heads of state – or even really “prime minister”, which is a convention in British politics rather than part of a Constitution set in stone. They are one of several candidates. So the first candidate to congratulate David Cameron was his rival from the Monster Raving Loony Party. Here’s Gordon Brown’s speech upon being re-elected in his constituency although almost certainly not as prime minister:

From the Beeb's live-blog:

The whole Labour strategy of a coalition with the Lib Dems depended on the latter taking some seats from the Tories, but that hasn't happened, says YouGov's Peter Kellner. For exmple, in Eastbourne the Lib Dems only needed a 1% swing to take control, but they didn't get it – and that will upset both Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown.

Julian Glover thinks Gordon Brown should bow out:

There's a moment in every game when someone has to put a hand on your shoulder, whisper in your ear and tell you to walk away – you've lost. Labour isn't quite at that point yet this evening but it's looking close. Tonight looks like bringing a big turnout, a sizeable Tory lead, though maybe not the large clear majority many Tories think Cameron should have won, and a big Labour defeat.

Martin Kettle's take:

Gordon Brown's acceptance speech after his win in Kirkcaldy was interpreted by the BBC studio team as practically a valedictory on his prime ministership. Maybe. My reaction was that he is keeping his options open. Brown's insistence on playing his part and on securing a stable government sounded pretty much like the words of a man who is not going to give up any time soon. The messages from Labour are that the party is in the business of trying to form a coalition if they can. Will they succeed? I doubt it. But I think Brown thinks he lives to fight another day – though maybe only one more of them.

Daniel Berman notes:

[T]he Liberal Democrats just failed to take their number one conservative target, and on a massive 6.5% swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives. It does seem quite possible that the exit poll may be more accurate than thought.

James Forsyth sums it up:

Fascinating dividing line being drawn between Tories, who say the exit poll means "Cameron in, Brown out" and the Labour team trying to play the "progressive coalition" card. David Miliband says: "Voters have given us an injunction to talk to each other". (As opposed to an injunction to take a running jump.) Blunkett, too, making wooing noises. The Kingswood victory – one of the bellwether seats which indicates a Cam majority – does lead me to suspect the Tories will get to 326 in the end. But not for a few hours yet.

Intrade gives the conservatives around a sixty percent chance of a majority, for what it's worth.

From Bagehot's live-blog:

According to our map-masters, 32 constituencies had declared by this time in 2005. We're well behind that schedule, presumably because of the rumoured higher turnout. A returning officer from Sheffield claims its the highest in 30 years.