The Dish

Like so many of the choices facing Barack Obama, the Iran conundrum is not of his making but one he has no choice but to confront. I see few ways, alas, in which the US and its allies can prevent Iran getting a nuclear weapon capacity in the near future. Maybe there was a chance earlier this decade, but it seems pretty hopeless to me now. A military attack would be a catastrophe; it would re-ignite Jihadism on a scale not yet seen with repercussions so unpredictable and results so insecure no prudent statesman would contemplate it. It would breathe new life into the Khamenei regime, al Qaeda and every anti-Semitic nutjob on the planet. For it to truly work in extinguishing Iran's dispersed and deeply buried network of sites, some kind of extremely brutal bomb or even tactical nukes would be required. A nuclear first strike by Israel against a Muslim country means a long and possibly swift slide toward global war.

Yes, if we can sharpen sanctions so that key members of the coup regime are personally crippled, fine. But I don't believe that broader sanctions will prevent Iran's nuclear program, and I don't believe the Russians or the Chinese will sign on to anything remotely useful in the first place. Does this leave an intolerable threat to the survival of Israel and the security of neighboring Sunni Arab states? It would be dangerously naive to under-estimate the threat, but equally foolish to over-state it.

Israel, remember, has the potential for massive nuclear response to any attempted strike from Iran.

The obvious aim, it seems to me, of the Revolutionary Guards is not to nuke al-Aqsa, but to use a nuclear capacity to immunize their terrorism in the region, to balance Israel's nuclear monopoly, to scare the crap out of the Saudis and Egyptians, and to shore up their control at home. I see this as an inevitable coming-of-age of Iran as a regional power, and although there is an obvious and acute danger that nuclearization could entrench some of the worst elements of the regime (and they don't get much worse than Ahmadinejad), the brutal truth is: we do not have the tools to stop it. One day, a nuclear Iran, if led by men and women legitimately elected by the people of Iran, could be our friend, not enemy – and a much more reliable and stable friend than the Sunni Arab autocracies we are currently shoring up. I believe, in short, that in my lifetime we will see a democratic Iran, led by the generation that took to the streets this year. And I believe vigilant containment is the only realistic way at this point to get there.

What we have to understand – and what I have come belatedly and painfully to grasp – is that our collective narcissism can be an obstacle to successful statesmanship. In blunter terms: This is not about us. In so far as we have made Iran about us, we have added mountains to the landscape of human misery and pain. This is a struggle for the Iranian people, a long, brutal, bitter struggle. We should do all we can to support them, without the neocon grandstanding that actually helps the regime rather than hurts it. But we have to understand our limits.

This is a deep struggle in the Muslim soul – a struggle to come to terms with its own sectarian past, the bloodiness of some of its scriptures, and the real and present threat of modernity as it crashes down on their medieval order with the power of technology they cannot control.

This process will take time, and Americans' well-meant determination to fix this state of affairs is, however understandable, naive. The arc of history is far slower than our 24-hour news cycle or our ADD blog-posting. The resurgence of religious fundamentalism at this moment of technological marvel and global integration is an utterly predictable phenomenon, and it will not end soon. And when it does end, it will do so by collapsing under its own lies and delusions and denial, just as communism did. We can do a little to nudge this along, but we cannot be the decisive force – or we will merely reignite the civiliizational conflict. Maybe a hot war is inevitable. But if it is, it is essential to our civilization and its core values that we do not initiate it. If Iraq did not convince us of that, nothing will.

I write this at the end of a decade that changed my politics. They changed because reality shifted. Globalization, technology and fundamentalism have reordered our post-Cold War world. The advantage lies with the asymmetrical, the nimble, the long tail, the lone actor. There is nothing the modern state can really do to stop this, and if it tries to assume the powers to have a chance, it will cease to resemble anything like the democracy or republic the Founders envisaged. We can panic and construct a Leviathan so powerful and invasive it will in the end destroy our freedoms, or we can hang in, do all we can to defuse ideological and theological tension, construct more effective means of defense and security, and outlast the Islamist wave even through what will be its many outrages and offenses.

This would be appeasement if strong military action were an effective alternative and could defeat the enemy. But if we have learned anything these past few years, it is that the mightiest military in the world cannot stop a lone fanatic eager to kill himself in order to kill countless others in a religious mission. Even if we were to transform Afghanistan, a Yemen would soon emerge. Even now after spending trillions on Iraq, we cannot stop al Qaeda returning when we leave to exploit sectarian divides. 

What we need is sobriety, stoicism, vigilance and a determined defense of our values and the rule of law. We cannot save our civilization by junking it, by pre-emptive wars and torture and near-dictatorial executive power. And we cannot save it by politicizing every attack, thereby magnifying the power of one tiny terrorist with burnt balls to create havoc and division in the free world.

I cannot say I end this decade with any optimism. The age of asymmetry is full of foreboding. But this much George Bush got right: this really is a new kind of war. He got the what. What he didn't get right – what I initially didn't get right – was the how. This how requires self-restraint as much as raw power, dedication to our values as much as emotional gratification, grindingly difficult intelligence work whose successes are rarely known but whose failures are in every headline. I believe that the election of Obama and the Green Revolution in Iran were signs that the next generation understands the magnitude of this crisis and are seeking a new way to overcome it. I believe that in my heart and soul. Which is why I found those events as inspiring as they are now imperiled.

The resistance is currently overwhelming, vicious, angry and alert. But when I feel its lethal force, I remember too the great wave of enthusiasm that brought Obama to the presidency and the explosion of democracy that brought millions to the streets of Iran. 

In the words of Niebuhr:

"There are no simple congruities in life or history. The cult of happiness erroneously assumes them. It is possible to soften the incongruities of life endlessly by the scientific conquest of nature's caprices, and the social and political triumph over historic injustice. But all such strategies cannot finally overcome the fragmentary character of human existence. The final wisdom of life requires, not the annulment of incongruity but the achievement of serenity within and above it…

Nothing that is worth doing can be achieved in our lifetime; there we must be saved by hope.

Nothing which is true or beautiful or good makes complete sense in any immediate context of history; there we must be saved by faith.

Nothing we do, however virtuous, can be accomplished alone; therefore we are saved by love.

No virtuous act is quite as virtuous from the standpoint of our friend or foe as it is from our own standpoint. Therefore we must be saved by the final form of love which is forgiveness."

Know hope.

(Photos: A piece of a building is lifted by a crane from the ruins at ground zero as work continues 11 October, 2001 in New York, as the sun rises one month after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center. By Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images.

A supporter of defeated Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi helps evacuate an injured Iranian riot-police officer during riots in Tehran on June 13, 2009. By Olivier Laban-Mattei//Getty Images.)

Rasmussen, the Republican polling outfit, does a slew of polls showing the American public eager to leave the Geneva Conventions, leave the UN Convention Against Torture, repeal domestic law and torture terror suspects. Goldfarb all but volunteers to torture him himself. Jennifer Rubin accuses the Obama administration if deliberately abetting terrorism by sticking to the rule of law.

Neoconservatism began in its foreign policy form as a critique of regimes that tortured people. It has come full circle – to embracing torture as a routine feature for Western governments.

Fox News Fail:

(Rasmussen-free.)

"I do try to keep my Blogposts non-personal — but on a personal note, although I haven't talked about him much in recent years except to a few people, I've been thinking a lot during the past few weeks about my longtime partner, Darryl. He died after an auto accident two days after our 10th Anniversary. It was quite some years ago, so the good memories remain.

I'm pretty good at visualization, so I felt that Darryl was next to me when I was standing behind [New Hampshire] Governor John Lynch as he signed HB 437, the Civil Unions bill, on May 31, 2007. And I also felt Darryl standing with us as the Governor signed HB 436, marriage equality, on June 3rd of this year. He had a wonderful smile that day," – state rep Jim Splaine.

(We all followed them. It was, to my mind, easily the most significant event of the year: the seismic movement against the theocratic fascism of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, as they forced a fraudulent hack onto an unwilling populace despite a landslide victory for his foes. What the full consequences will be we still do not know. But this statement by Mousavi in June is as eloquent as it is impassioned. Do not forget these people – because, God knows, so many have. – Andrew)

[Via Iranfacts]

"In the name of God, the kind and the merciful

Indeed god demands you to safe keep what people entrust in you, and to rule them with justice. [this a verse of Koran]

Respectable and intelligent people of Iran, These nights and days, a pivotal moment in our history is taking place. People ask each other: “what should we do?, which way should we go?”. It is my duty to share with you what I believe, and to learn from you, may we never forget our historical task and not give up on the duty we are given by the destiny of times and generations.

30 years ago, in this country a revolution became victorious in the name of Islam, a revolution for  freedom, a revolution for reviving the dignity of men, a revolution for truth and justice. In those times, especially when our enlightened Imam [Khomeini] was alive, large amount of lives and matters were invested to legitimize this foundation and many valuable achievements were attained. An unprecedented enlightenment captured our society, and our people reached a new life where they endured the hardest of hardships with a sweet taste. What this people gained was dignity and freedom and a gift of the life of the pure ones [i.e. 12 Imams of Shiites]. I am certain that those who have seen those days will not be satisfied with anything less. Had we as a people lost certain talents that we were unable to experience that early spirituality? I had come to say that that was not the case. It is not late yet, we are not far from that enlightened space yet.

I had come to show that it was possible to live spiritually while living in a modern world. I had come to repeat Imam’s warnings about fundamentalism. I had come to say that evading the law leads to dictatorship; and to remind that paying attention to people’s dignity does not diminish the foundations of the regime, but strengthens it.

I had come to say that people wish honesty and integrity from their servants, and that many of our perils have arisen from lies. I had come to say that poverty and backwardness, corruption and injustice were not our destiny. I had come to re-invite to the Islamic revolution, as it had to be, and Islamic republic as it has to be. In this invitation, I was not charismatic [articulate], but the core message of revolution was so appealing that it surpassed my articulation and excited the young generation who had not seen those days to recreate scenes which we had not seen since the days of revolution[1979] and the sacred defense. The people’s movement chose green as its symbol. I confess that in this, I followed them.

And a generation that was accused of being removed from religion, has now reached “God is Great”, “Victory’s of God and victory’s near”, “Ya hossein” in their chants to prove that when this tree fruits, they all resemble. No one taught hem these slogans, they reached them by the teachings of instinct.

How unfair are those whose petty advantages make them call this a “velvet revolution” staged by foreigners! [refering to state TV and Khameneni, perhaps!] But as you know, all of us were faced with deception and cheatings when we claimed to revitalize our nation and realize dreams that root in the hearts of young and old. And that which we had predicted will stem from evading law [dictatorship], realized soon in the worst manifestation.

The large voter turnout in recent election was the result of hard work to create hope and confidence in people, to create a deserving response to those whose broad dissatisfaction with the existing management crisis could have targeted the foundations of the regime. If this good will and trust of the poeple is not addressed via protecting their votes, or if they cannot react in a civil manner to claim their rights, the responsibility of the dangerous routs ahead will be on the shoulders of those who do not tolerate civil protests. If the large volume of cheating and vote rigging, which has set fire to the hays of people’s anger, is expressed as the evidence of fairness, the republican nature of the state will be killed and in practice, the ideology that Islam and Republicanism are incompatible will be proven.

This outcome will make two groups happy: One, those who since the beginning of revolution stood against Imam and called the Islamic state a dictatorship of the elite who want to take people to heaven by force; and the other, those who in defending the human rights, consider religion and Islam against republicanism. Imam’s fantastic art was to neutralize these dichotomies. I had come to focus on Imam’s approach to neutralize the burgeoning magic of these. Now, by confirming the results of election, by limiting the extent of investigation in a manner that the outcome will not be changed, even though in more than 170 branches the number of cast votes was more than 100% of eligible voters of the riding, the heads of the state have accepted the responsibility of what has happened during the election.

In these conditions, we are asked to follow our complaints via the Guardian council, while this council has proven its bias, not only before and during, but also after the election. The first principle of judgment is to be impartial. I, continue to strongly believe that the request for annulling the vote and repeating the election is a definite right that has to be considered by impartial and nationally trusted delegation. Not to dismiss the results of this investigation a priori, or to prevent people from demonstration by threatening them to bloodshed. Nor to unleash the Intelligence ministry’s plain clothes forces on people’s lives to disperse crowds by intimidation and inflammation, instead of responding to people’s legitimate questions, and then blaming the bloodshed on others.

As I am looking at the scene, I see it set for advancing a new political agenda that spreads beyond the objective of installing an unwanted government. As a companion who has seen the beauties of your green wave, I will never allow any one’s life endangered because of my actions. At the same time, I remain undeterred on my demand for annulling the election and demanding people’s rights. Despite my limited abilities, I believe that your motivation and creativity can pursue your legitimate demands in new civil manners.

Be sure that I will always stand with you. What this brother of yours recommends, especially to the dear youth, in terms of finding new solutions is to not allow liars and cheater steal your flag of defense of Islamic state, and foreigners rip the treasures of the Islamic republic which are your inheritance of the blood of your decent fathers. By trust in God, and hope for the future, and leaning on the strength of social movements, claim your rights in the frameworks of the existing constitution, based on principle of non-violence.

In this, we are not confronting the Basij. Basiji is our brother. In this we are not confronting the revolutionary guard. The guard is the keeper of our revolution. We are not confronting the army, the army is the keeper of our borders. These organs are the keepers of our independence, freedom and our Islamic republic. We are confronting deception and lies, we want to reform them, a reform by return to the pure principles of revolution.

We advise the authorities, to calm down the streets. Based on article 27 of the constitution, not only provide space for peaceful protest, but also encourage such gatherings. The state TV should stop badmouthing and taking sides. Before voices turn into shouting, let them be heard in reasonable debates. Let the press criticize, and write the news as they happen. In one word, create a free space for people to express their agreements and disagreements. Let those who want, say “takbeer” and don’t consider it opposition. It is clear that in this case, there won’t be a need for security forces on the streets, and we won’t have to face pictures and hear news that break the heart of anyone who loves the country and the revolution.

Your brother and companion Mir Hossein Mousavi

(Photo: A supporter of Iran's defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi shows her hand covered in the blood of a wounded person during a demonstration on June 20, 2009 in Tehran, Iran. Thousands of Iranians clashed with police as they defied an ultimatum from supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calling for an end to protests over last week's disputed presidential election results. Iranian police have tried to break up protest using water cannon, tear gas, batons and live rounds. Getty.)

Same as 2008 (though this one is close but too silly) – and a role model for us all, whatever that snarky critical beardities blogger says. More Bruce beardage apres le saut:

The only decent thing to do is to hope for his swift and full recovery so we can get back to exposing his blarney and bile. Get well soonest.

The cordon sanitaire they placed around Palin is getting tighter as the evidence of her mendacity grows. Here's the Palin approach to transparency and press freedom:

Sarah Palin's Wasilla book signing had a few rules. "Per Todd Palin", three of us were banned. "Public servants" in their police uniforms at a "public event" in a "public building" had a list of "public citizens" not allowed in. 

Todd Palin, outraged by something or other:

Full doc at TPM.