The Dish

It looks as if a recount is now a possibility. One glimmer of hope: there are uncounted votes from Cumberland County, which includes parts of Portland. The city voted 73 – 27 percent for keeping marriage rights. A reader writes:

I'm nervously watching the Q1 results. I was involved in the Q4 discrimination referendum years ago and was a team leader for the Obama campaign. Even though we moved to Texas this summer, I have been making calls to Maine. I am not surprised by the results so far. From my perspective the challenge was always to get a sufficiently high voter turnout in friendly towns in Southern Maine to offset the rest of the state. Knox is very encouraging. I am quite concerned about York as we normally count on it to counter northern Maine–looks like Biddeford, Saco, and Sanford are driving the Yes votes–all highly Catholic towns.

Another Maine reader notes:

Kittery, and York are likely to follow the pattern of Eliot, Wells, or even Kennebunkport, all neighboring towns. That said, compare the 3 Berwicks and you can see how the differences can swing by 10% or more within 10 miles…

Today on the Dish we tracked the remarkable turnout in Maine, where a loss for marriage equality could very well be the national Dems' fault. Regarding the other races, Nate Silver and Josh Green downplayed the potential outcomes, Scarborough stayed positive on the Beck-Palin insurgency, and some readers from NY-23 chimed in. (Read just below for late-breaking election results.

While Palin continued to meddle in NY, NJ, and VA, Levi turned up the tabloid heat. Readers sounded off – and one nearly stomped off. On the war on prohibition, we examined the distorted "danger" of drugs in the UK and watched a remarkable mother of two expound the conservative case for legalization.

In other commentary, Andrew engaged Goldberg over Parsi, Carol Platt Liebau got a Hewitt, Larry Stickney got a Malkin, the Dish got snarky with Stickney, Southerners shunned Bush even more than Obama, John McWhorter talked language, and Matt Steinglass and a reader discussed dog-eating. 

— C.B.

Watertown, New York, Mayor Jeff Graham, a Hoffman supporter, calls it.

The November 4 rally which looks set to be another humiliation for the coup regime is yet another sign that Iran is fracturing. And this is a Youtube from Tehran tonight, heralding the future in the now-traditional way:

Bangor is in and the marriage equality forces won it 54 – 46. We won Kennebunkport too 61 – 39. And yet the totals seem to be reaching a California tipping point against gay equality. With 60 percent in, it's 52 – 48 against gay couples having the same rights as straight ones.

His lead is still solid – and he's pulling in 49 percent of the vote. The highest margin a Democrat has ever polled in the district in recent times was 38 percent in 1990. In the last election, the Democrat got 35 percent. In some ways, a Hoffman victory would, in my view, have been worse for the GOP. But this result, if it holds, suggests that the insurgency there was more of a national/Beck/Palin media reality than an actual shift. If anything, this reveals a big shift to the Dems, perhaps in reaction to the disarray and division on the right.

Yes, it feels like an England-Germany football match to me in over time or a Brit playing the fifth set tie-breaker in the Wimbledon final. If you look at the precincts that have not yet reported, Bangor is among them. Which is encouraging, if one assumes that urbanites are likely to be somewhat less anti-gay than country folk. On the other initiative, Maine has now become the third state to license medical marijuana dispensaries:

Under the measure, the state will license nonprofit organizations to provide medical marijuana to qualified patients and set rules for their operation. While 13 states permit medical use of marijuana, only Rhode Island and New Mexico have similar dispensary provisions, both of which were adopted by the states’ legislatures. Maine’s original medical marijuana law was passed in 1999.

“This is a dramatic step forward, the first time that any state’s voters have authorized the state government to license medical marijuana dispensaries,” said Rob Kampia, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project in Washington, D.C., which drafted the initiative and provided start-up funding for the campaign. “Coming a decade after passage of Maine’s original marijuana law, this is a huge sign that voters are comfortable with these laws, and also a sign that the recent change of policy from the Obama administration is having a major impact.”

Well, I had begun to assume a big Hoffman victory. Not so fast. Owens has a small but real lead, with over 60 percent of the votes in. More interesting, Palin just doesn't poll very well in a district that is almost tailor-made for her:

43% view her favorably to 44% negative. This is in a poll with a party ID breakdown of R+14 that shows Doug Hoffman leading by 17 points. If Palin's not popular in an electorate with that mix she's not going anywhere nationally.

NY-23 is a district with an unusual number of moderate Republicans, and Palin's favorability with them breaks down negatively 53/32. She could overcome those kinds of numbers in a contest to get the Republican nomination but they certainly wouldn't be good enough in a general election. The North Country should be friendly ground for her and if she can't make it there it's hard to see how she can make it anywhere.

So the endorsement of Hoffman may not have been that big a deal.

Ambers:

The economy sucks. States are really hurting. Governors are very unpopular. Their support is going to crater.

Christie romps home in New Jersey. And McDonnell wins in Virginia. These are not big surprises. But what's truly striking is how narrow Mike Bloomberg's margin is, how close the marriage fight is in Maine, and how Owens is doing much better than I expected in NY-23. I should say this about Maine. Whoever wins this vote will do so by the slimmest of margins. I don't think it therefore represents much of a victory for either the pro-gay or anti-gay forces. It represents an essential 50-50 split. Maybe the coming results will alter that. But all we find out from Maine is that this is a very evenly divided state on this subject.