Several readers complained that the approval graph below needs to have Rasmussen – the Republican outlier polling outfit – removed from the calculation. Rasmussen has a voter model that skews GOP because it views Republicans as likelier voters than many Democrats. Remove this bias and the result is more nuanced:
Compare with the Rasmussen data included below.
Hoffman is leading Scozzafava 71-15 among Republicans with 12% going to Owens. Among Democrats Owens gets 67% to 21% for Hoffman and 10% for Scozzafava. Hoffman leads Owens 52-30 with independents.
One key finding that may have ultimately scuttled Scozzafava’s candidacy: 59% of Republicans considered her to be a liberal and only 7% thought she was a conservative. By comparison 80% of them consider Hoffman to be a conservative, and that’s a good thing where nearly two thirds of GOP voters define themselves that way.
Republican voters also appear to be considerably more energized about the election than Democrats. While Barack Obama won a narrow victory in NY-23 last year, those planning to vote in this race supported John McCain by a 51-43 margin. Obama’s approval rating with likely voters is just 39%.
Full results here.
The Newest Deal relays a riveting story:
In a stunning move, Mahmoud Vahidnia (pictured right), a student from the prestigious Sharif university and winner of the International Math Olympics, directly confronted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during the question-and-answer portion of a conference that was being held [last Wednesday]. When Khamenei asked if the audience had any questions, Vahidnia stood up and answered, "Yes, I have some words with you.”
What followed was a 20 minute critique of both Khamenei and the Islamic Republic, coupled with interruptions by some of the Basij students supportive of the regime. Vahidnia criticized the propagandist nature of state media, the security climate stifling the country, censorship of the free press, the power structure of the Islamic Republic, and the very inability to criticize the Supreme Leader himself.
Persian2English provides a summarized translation of the encounter:
“Why can’t anyone in this country criticize you? Isn’t that ignorant? Do you think that you make no mistakes? Why have they made an idol out of you that is so unreachable and that nobody can challenge? I have never read an article about your performance in any newspaper because you have shut down all the media that is against you in the country. Why does national TV show all the events untruthfully? For example all the events after the election: why do you support them [national TV shows], when everyone knows they are lying? Since the president of national television is directly selected by you, you are thus responsible for all this.”
Khamenei dodged the questions and instead called Vahidnia dishonest. He claimed that he receives (and is receptive to) criticism every day, and that he always adjusts his behavior to account for errors. Soon thereafter, Khamenei departed behind a curtain before first receiving praise from a Basiji student in attendance. The prayer that Khamenei was scheduled to lead at the end of the ceremony did not occur amid his hasty departure. Vahidnia was reportedly detained by security officials soon after the event.
The dean of the university later claimed that Khamenei had given the student permission to speak out. According to Mowjcamp, the student was arrested.
This line on Hoffman, which I've noted, may be misleading, while technically true. A reader writes:
You've made several snide references to Hoffman living outside of NY-23, even going so far as to say he's not "from there." Actually, he's lived in that area all of his life. He lived in NY-23 until 2001 until political gerrymandering resulted in a redistricting — suddenly his house in Lake Placid was a few miles outside of the new boundary lines. In other words, he didn't leave the district, the district left him. He has said that if he wins he will relocate the ten or so miles to move into the new district boundaries.
A reader suggests: from Nutt sacking to tea-bagging.
After reiterating that special election races are nearly impossible to predict because of low turnout, Nate Silver looks at the consequences of a Hoffman win:
The “extreme” conservatives do have a few electoral advantages over the moderates: more capacity to generate high turnouts amongst their base, more differentiation from the establishment, and arguably a “fresher” message (even if it’s all in the packaging). If Hoffman does win by some margin, it won’t be so clear that these conservatives are in fact less electable than their more moderate Republican brethren, at least in terms of 2010.
The Longest Way 1.0 – one year walk/beard grow time lapse from Christoph Rehage on Vimeo.
It’s actually a scientific unit:
It’s the physics tiny measurement partner of the light year. Wikipedia defines it as “the length an average physicist’s beard grows in a second”, equivalent to either 5 or 10 nanometers. I assume the namer intended some humor and, as far as physics jokes go, it’s a damn good one. You can convert measurements to beard-seconds using the Google search bar.
[T]he mainstreaming of homosexuality means that there’s simply less reason to subscribe to magazines about being gay. Not only are there are plenty of gay-oriented blogs, ezines, forums, and the like but gay culture is part of the larger culture now. Maybe not so much in small town America but certainly in the big cities. And, more to the point, in mainstream magazines, movies, and television shows.
Or why I love 1990s Japanese commercials featuring the now-governor of California:
Obama’s general job-approval ratings since August:
The Dish 