The Dish

I can’t quite believe it. Russert, Drudge and Chuck Todd have now said Obama is the nominee.

Get your latest data here. Check this out:

Clay said the election is seeing a record turnout in the city. “We’re used to having maybe a 22, 23 percent turnout for a primary. We’re seeing numbers as high as 85 to 95 percent,” Clay said. “The Gary people took care of business.”

95 percent? Just to calm everyone down: this will mean next to nothing in terms of delegates. It’s all psychological for the supers. I just hope there was no funny business in Gary – although a massive African-American turnout, given the way the Clintons have campaigned, would not be unimaginable.

The whole race. Big balls, our Matt. Big brain too. And you have to wonder if someone has told him something. He’s got great sources in the Clinton camp. Russert is also reporting that Clinton has canceled all morning television appearances.

Check it out.

Because of the last month of total slime warfare against Obama. Nagourney:

For Mr. Obama, the outcome came after a brutal period in which he was on the defensive over the inflammatory comments of his former pastor. That he was able, at a minimum, to hold his own under those circumstances should allow him to make a case that he has proved his resilience in the face of questions about race, values and patriotism — the very kinds of issues that the Clinton campaign has suggested would leave him vulnerable in the general election.

Wright is a grenade that will fizzle. The right will try other gambits – the Ayers crap and if that doesn’t work, look for them to take aim at Obama’s wife. But Obama’s survival – or rather the voters’ refusal to make this election about the Freak Show – suggests that Newt is right. This will not work this year.

I won’t go to bed if you don’t. There’s some fishiness in the late reporting from Gary, Michael Jackson’s home town, and the Clintonites will have their sights set on Mayor Rudy Clay. His advance excuses can be found here.

John Podhoretz:

The key thing about this night for the Democrats is that it appears Barack Obama has actually done better than expected. It’s the first time we’ve been able to say this about Obama since early February. Ever since, it’s always been Hillary doing better than anybody expected. Her “better thans” have run out.

Marc:

May 20 — that’s the date when the campaign unofficially expects to "clinch" the nomination — when they’ll officially have a majority of pledged delegates, which triggers, in their view, the standard for superdelegate decision-making set by party leaders like Nancy Pelosi. As of tonight, Obama will be between 35 and 43 pledged delegates votes away from achieving that majority.

Publius:

Tonight, I think, marks the end of the Clinton campaign.

I mean, it’s been over for some time, but tonight sucked the wind out of her rationale for staying in — particularly if Indiana flips when the Chicago vote comes in. Math-wise, tonight’s elections don’t change much. The math is bad for Clinton, and it got worse tonight. But Clinton’s strategy in recent months hasn’t been about math (i.e., making up significant pledged delegate numbers). It’s been about perceptions.

Isaac Chotiner:

If indeed the gas tax issue hurt Clinton in Indiana, there is something nice about the fact that pandering–whether over the gas tax in Indiana on Clinton’s part, or over NAFTA in Ohio on Obama’s part–has boomeranged. (So

Ezra Klein:

Coming off the rough few weeks Obama has had (gas tax, Wright, bittergate, Pennsylvania, etc), this looks pretty bad for Clinton. She needed to cement impressions of his weakness and her comeback by burying Obama in Indiana and hold his margin to low single digits in North Carolina. Instead, he’s held her in Indiana and looks to be blowing past expectations in North Carolina.

Powerline:

…given the present state of play, tonight’s results will suit Obama just fine. Not only can he legitimately claim to have "stopped the bleeding," but his lead among non-superdelegates seems insurmountable. Simply put, Clinton’s recent string of good results, as impressive as it is, seems to fall short of what is needed to convince superdelegates to reverse the overall result of the primaries and caucuses.

Kos:

If Clinton were to drop out this week, we’d face an uncomfortable situation in West Virginia, with Clinton likely crushing Obama. That would look terrible for the presumptive nominee. Better than that would be to garner enough superdelegate commitments this week, so that Oregon can push Obama past 2,024. That way, it isn’t the supers who clinch it for Obama, but actual voters.

Yglesias:

As we wait to hear from Indiana, it’s always worth recalling that there’s no real substantial difference between a narrow win in Indiana and a narrow loss in Indiana. A lot of our primary punditry has proceeded as if this is the electoral college and there’s a huge difference, but the Democrats’ rules for delegate allocation assures at this point that Indiana’s going to be a push while Obama picks up a nice parcel of delegates out of North Carolina.

Megan on the TV campaign surrogates:

If only one could put out political blather with a little stop, drop and roll.

(Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty.)

A reader writes:

I don’t think the results that McCain has been getting are really that unusual for late primaries.  It’s just unusual that only one of the races should be decided and we should be paying so much attention.  Take a look here for Indiana’s 2000 GOP primary.  McCain, despite bowing out months before, still nets nearly 20% of the vote.  It’s more likely that discontented voters still show up at the polls to voice their disappointment, while run-of-the-mill voters figure that the race is resolved and just stay home, thereby inflating even a defeated candidates totals.

They’re still touting the gas tax holiday!

As her speech staggers on, after the gas tax holiday gambit, and a plea for Burma, she eventually turns to Florida and Michigan. You almost want to look away. But it’s fascinating in a way. She cannot concede; she cannot give an inch; she cannot acknowledge reality. Observing sociopaths in close detail as their world collapses around them and they cannot absorb the truth is always fascinating. And yet some sliver of humanity is discernible: her tone is altered. Even she cannot fake enthusiasm or confidence any more. And Bill seems grim. Chelsea seemed close to breaking into tears.

If you want another president whose own grip on reality has little relationship to the outside world, then you know who to vote for.