The Dish

This is shaping up as a big net delegate loss for the Clintons. CNN has still not called the race. Gary, Indiana, hasn’t reported any votes yet. If this holds up, it’s very grim for the Clintons.

There is no calculation that currently gives the Clintons a majority of the popular vote. There is now no mathematical possibility of them getting more delegates. Obama has won by far the most states. He has raised far more money; he has 1.5 million donors, mainly small sums. He has crushed her among new voters and young voters; and as a black politician, his support spans all races and classes. And recall: he is a freshman senator with a very funny name against the biggest brand name in American politics and a worldwide celebrity whose chief campaigner was a former two-term president of the United States.

When you take a couple of steps back, you realize the astonishing success of this movement. In the last month, every brutal guilt-by-association smear has been thrown at him and the Clintons have been reduced to hoping that Rush Limbaugh will turn out their voters that Karl Rove’s tactics are worthy of the Democrats. He has somehow endured and survived and in North Carolina has won what looks like a stunning margin of victory. And when you look at the states that Clinton is, er, clinging to: Obama has gained among her demographic base from Ohio to Pennsylvania to Indiana. She’s going backward.

The Clintons will have to realize some day that their time is over. I cannot pretend to know how they think or how much more damage to themselves, to their legacy and to their party they want to inflict. But I do know who has won this nomination, whether they try to steal it from him or not.

(Photo: Emmanuel Dunand/Getty.)

"This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country — probably even a lot of the world — is looking to see what North Carolina decides," – Senator Hillary Clinton.

She will, of course, now pretend she never said it. But she did. And she is now in danger of looking … ridiculous.

A reader writes:

I currently live in Massachusetts, but I’m registered in rural Indiana. I’ve been in heavy contact with everyone back home and have been told of quite a few consistent GOP voters. They went to vote on the democratic ticket (albeit partially for a vendetta on the governor ticket) and voted for Barack because they are well aware the Republican party will probably lose in the fall.

It looks as if Clinton’s margin in Indiana keeps dwindling as the votes mount – at 8 percent now; and Obama’s lead in North Carolina is growing. Right now, it’s a 28 point margin in NC, which is staggering.

The margin in North Carolina so far exceeds my own expectations by a long shot; but Clinton’s current margin in Indiana is not to be discounted. I understand that Obama-favoring counties in Indiana are running behind in the counting. So we’ll see. But after the worst battering Obama has received in this campaign, a double-digit win in North Carolina, a single digit loss in Indiana and a net gain in the delegate lead can only be encouraging news for the Obama camp. Make that: more than encouraging. Any rival candidate not seized with an almost fathomless sense of entitlement would drop out. Which means, of course, she won’t.

A reader writes:

As you watch results come in, important to know this: 

Indiana has 72 delegates…47 will be decided by results in congressional districts. There are 9 congressional districts.

In congressional districts 1, 2, 7, 8 and 9 there are 6 delegates each. These delegates will be split 3-3 — you need to win 58 percent or higher in order to get a 4-2 split. So that means all Obama has to do is hold Hillary to 58 percent or lower in each district and they split. Which means he stays ahead. 

(Cong district 1 is Lake County up near Chicago, 2 is the South Bend area, 7 is Indianapolis, 8 is the SW quandrant and 9 is the SE quandrant.)

Districts 3 (North Central Indiana), 4 (West Central) — both strong Hillary areas — and 5 (Eastern and Northern suburbs of Indianapolis (a tossup) have four delegates each. These delegates are also split 2-2. In these districts, in order to get a 3-1 split, the winner has to get 65% or higher! So Obama’s task is even easier/Hillary’s task is even more difficult there.

District 6 (Eastern edge of state…Muncie, Anderson, Richmond, also suburbs of Fort Wayne and Cincinatti) has 5 delegates. Winner there gets 3 out of 5. That is a district to watch tonight because it can be a tie-breaker.

The other 25 delegates are mayors and other elected party officials who go the way of their districts, and of course the superdelegates.

So far Clinton and Obama have pretty much split them — but the good news for Obama is, of the three remaining undecided superdelegates, rumor has it all three are eager to go with Obama if given even the slightest excuse.

Is it a factor in Indiana? A reader writes:

My mother is working as an election judge in Hendricks County, Indiana (just to the west of Indianapolis). She noted that she has had about five separate people come in to vote in the Democratic primary claiming they are part of Operation Chaos. She was honestly appalled that they would admit this openly.  Since her precinct is highly Republican, they have only had about 57 Democratic votes total (up from about 10 in prior years), so this is a pretty high number (esp. when you consider that it is the people volunteering the information).

MSNBC is also reporting huge Republican turnout in Indiana. I wonder if the Clintons have considered switching parties? In so many ways, they already have.

If you agree with Althouse, you can check North Carolina results here and Indiana results here.