Anyone else notice Terry McAullife’s comments last night about a possible re-vote? Marc says Obama might not be able to stop it:
If Florida and Michigan resubmit delegate plans to the DNC, if the DNC approves the plans, and if the states can find a way to pay for primaries, the contests would be on.
Dick Polman looks at the demographics:
After Mississippi votes next Tuesday, Pennsylvania will become the new Iowa, the target of unremitting national attention, and it will be a brutal battlefield. For all the glib comparisons to Ohio, its Rustbelt neighbor, there are significant differents that could aid Obama. It has a larger black population than Ohio, and a larger student population. In contrast to Texas, it has a small Latino population. It has populous white liberal suburbs around Philadelphia.
On the other hand (advantage Hillary), it has the second-largest senior electorate in America, behind Florida. It has a large population of lunch-bucket guys, just as in Ohio. And, perhaps most importantly, this primary is open only to registered Democrats. Obama-friendly independents need not bother to show up – unless they re-register as Democrats in advance, by the March 24 deadline.
You have till March 24.
Some thoughts from sleepy bloggers. Josh:
In a day or two, I think those delegate numbers are going to sink in. And her path to the nomination still looks incredibly difficult. But give her her due.
I agree with Tom Watson that a Democratic duel that goes all the way to the convention is a healthy development, not a death march…Then again, I’m also sympathetic to those whose nerves are wrung out and just want this thing over, the way they want Bush’s presidency to come to its miserable conclusion so that this oppressive weight will no longer be hanging over our heads. But it’s not nearly as exhausting a marathon for us as it is for the candidates, their families, and their staffs, and if they can tough it out to the finish, who are we to whine?
What does pandering to the Pennsylvania Amish entail?
The far right celebrates:
If Hillary ekes out close wins, stays alive, gains the nomination and the White House, will Rush hold the Bible at her Inauguration?
It’s done. We all have to endure this:
"This nation is coming back and so is this campaign. … We’re going on, we’re going strong, and we’re going all the way!"
I couldn’t watch it. Sorry. Ambers notes, poignantly:
Even with these HRC leads in TX (narrow) and Ohio (wide), Obama has about an 8 net delegate lead in those two states at this point.
To keep oneself from despair, it does seem to me to be valid (and not just Obama spin) to recall that a short time ago, Clinton was supposed to crush Obama in both Texas and Ohio. Bill Clinton has said publicly that his wife has to win both states to stay in the race. The race will be decided by delegates – and Texas is still extremely close. The caucuses count.
Nonetheless, it matters who actually wins the popular vote in Texas and how big Clinton’s win is in Ohio. If she can argue she has decisively won all the biggest states, even if she has no mathematical chance to win the nomination outright, she will have enough of a case to stay in. And this grueling race will go on. This is how the Clintons usually prevail – they grind you down. They don’t care what happens to their party or their country (remember the 1990s?). They have no shame and no scruples. They will say anything. But they will never willingly relinquish power or the chance of power. In a free country, that is their right. And I’m not impugning that. But the refusal ever to concede or to champion others or to settle for a mere eight years in the White House is in their blood. You can only defeat them if you treat them as they would treat you. I wonder if Obama can keep his civility and still win.
I just had a Jager shot, and hope to get drunk very soon. So this is my last post of the night. Here’s what I’ll do in the morning: find out who won the most delegates in the March 4 states, and check someone else’s math (yes, I’m not going to get it wrong myself) to see who subsequently has the numbers to win. And then take a deep breath. And say what I think. Right now, emotion clouds the mind. Oh, and Jager.
(Photo: Stan Honda/Getty.)
A fair reader point:
Let’s remember that in Ohio Clinton leads by 15% or so with over 40% of the vote in. Normally, this would be well above the amount needed to call the race for her, but in this case it isn’t. Why? Because the remaining metro areas yet to be counted have high populations of black people who are expected to overwhelmingly vote for the, um, black candidate. It isn’t just white voters who are voting based on race it is just that we find some voters who vote based on race objectionable and other voters who vote based on race acceptable. It is what it is.
Until 4:30 am? You have to love Ohio.
One fascinating nugget: those voters in Ohio who voted on the basis of race and gender voted for Clinton; those who said both things were irrelevant voted for Obama. Chait has more.
The best page to check for raw data, constantly refreshed.
The Clintons clearly hurt Obama in the last few days, as I feared. But the barrage of negative ads and fear-mongering will also be used by the GOP against Obama in the fall. So it’s fair game, I suppose. And, however depressing it is, the Clintons have helped unearth those white voters who simply won’t vote for a black man. The Clintons’ argument for the super-delegates will almost certainly be that if Obama can’t win white working class voters in Ohio, he can’t win the general. This is the classic Clinton position. They will tell the Democrats that America is just too racist for Obama, and that fear is always a surer bet than hope. That’s what they believe and have always believed. And it is what they will never challenge.
Obama challenges both ideas: he is running to transcend race and to overcome fear. It was never going to be easy. But at least he is trying. Clinton never will. What’s in it for her, after all?
