The Margin Closes In Texas

But I’m not jumping out of my window yet:

Many of the early vote "precincts" in Texas have largely been counted, and the election day precincts are beginning to allow Hillary Clinton to close the margin with Barack Obama. But a lot of the bigger counties haven’t counted their early votes yet, so the margin could widen in Obama’s favor again.

Time to drink. Meanwhile, the caucuses are mayhem – and all the emails I get suggest very large Obama numbers (although my gay readers report support for the Clintons).

McCain On The War

His strategy is now clear: he will refuse to debate the question of whether we should have fought in the first pace. And that’s understandable. He cannot win on those grounds. And his commitment to end the war as swiftly as possible without inflaming sectarian hatred is as good as we’ll get. But here’s what I fear: that he will not be honest and candid about the true implications on his strategy: an occupation with no fewer than a hundred thousand troops for his entire first term, and at least 75,000 troops for decades. If he has the courage and candor to say this, to be honest about the enormous cost of staying for the very long haul, and the low chances for success, the fact that success means merely a non-genocide and non-despotic by Middle Eastern standards, he will deserve the presidency. But the last thing we need is someone who will do what this president has done, and consistently fail to tell Americans what the actual cost of the permanent occupation will be. If McCain wants to keep the war going – and extend it to Iran – he has to get the American people to sign off on it. With their eyes open. And the costs explained.

Email From Rural Ohio

A reader writes:

You state that it’s the white women who are turning the tide for Clinton in Ohio, but there is another group that the national media seem to miss in their calcualtions within this state: the good ol’ boys down in the Southeast quadrant of the state that borders West Virginia. It’s very rural, with no major cities, lots of farmland, a National Forest, and not much else. It hasn’t thrived since the coal mines left and the industrial plants dried up.

I live in this southeatern Ohio backwater and can tell you that racism is alive and well.

We are basically a subset of Mississippi, believe it or not, without the racial makeup. It has a high evangelical population, and is home to uber-preacher Rob Parsley.  Only the true blue county of Athens, home of  liberal arts Ohio University, lacks the racial divide and hard core conservative outlook. Look on any electoral map, and the county is an island of blue in a sea of red.  I always knew Obama would have a hard sell in my area of the state, with its Nascar-lovin’, deer-huntin’, Ford drivin’ rednecks. (and I live here, so I’m allowed to say it!)

Texas Numbers

The 1% is the number of precincts reporting. Apparently, they are expecting around 3.3 million votes in Texas. That early margin has got to be encouraging for Obama. But Clinton was able to sow enough doubts about her opponent to finish strongly. The politics of fear works. She’ll keep using it. Meanwhile, I’m getting lots of emails from the caucuses, where Obama seems very strong. So of course, Clinton is claiming irregularities. When she wins, it’s fair. When she loses, she whines.