Dissent Of The Day

A reader in Iraq writes:

You couldn’t be more wrong with the partition thing or your view that there is no hope for sectarian reconciliation in Iraq. The partitioning of Iraq is the single biggest threat to its future.  I’ll explain that in a second.  First, the Sunnis and Shias are well on their way reconciling.  Here are some points:

(1) Sunnis political and militia type groups of every type have been engaging extensively with Shia political groups and militias.  It has been going on at all level for some time.  It is already extensive and is increasing.  To take just one example, the Awakening group (Sahawa al-Iraq: the people who did more than anything else to clear AQI out of Anbar) has been meeting and cooperating extensively with the largest Shia party in Iraq (ISCI which also controls the Badr militia and is strongly associated with Iran) for about six months now.  There are plenty of other examples.

(2) Any Shia group with ties to Iran is racing to distance themselves from Iran because it makes it impossible for them to cooperate with Sunnis (the previously mentioned ISCI/Badr is just one example).  Every major Shia group is doing this right now.

(3) There is a widespread recognition in Iraq that sectarian parties have failed.  There have been a number of initiatives designed to create non-ethnic and non-sectarian parties.  In fact there is a greater than 50-50 chance that the political parties will suddenly realign themselves into non-sectarian blocks.  Right now for example you have two major Sunni parties in al-Anbar, but they don’t get along with each other.  However at the national level they are aligned because they are both Sunni.  What I predict will happen is that these two Sunni parties will join separate blocks each of which includes a Kurdish, Sunni and Shia part.  The same dynamic seems to be happening elsewhere.  I also predict that when the shift happens it will happen pretty rapidly.  The Iraqis have tried a number of times to do this and each time they get closer and closer to making it happen (once one such block it formed it will be politically very powerful, so everybody else will likely be forced to join a counter block)

The partitioning of Iraq has the serious potential to derail almost all the progress made so far.  At least 70% of the Shia are against it and about 95% of the Sunni Arabs are.  The reasons why the Sunnis are so against it even though they are the runt of the Kurd-Sunni-Shia litter are the following (in no particular order):

a) They are afraid that partitioning will derail all the progress they have made.  They feel that things are improving rapidly and are anxious for it to continue.

b) They are afraid of what will happen in mixed ethnic areas on the borders of any partitioning.

c)  Every Sunni tribe has a Shia minority.  Typically they are only a few thousand members and they live in Shia areas, but there is a strong tribal attachment.  There are also strong historical ties in many cases.  Many Sunni tribes in Anbar have a strong historical connection to Shia tribes in Karbala for example.

d) They are afraid it will destroy trade between areas and hence limit economic development.

e) They are afraid it will lead to wars between different partitions similar to when Yugoslavia broke up.

f) They are fear a partition will open the door to Iranian takeover of the South.  (The Shias in the south have the same fear incidentally)

g)  They are afraid they will get cheated out of a complete share of the oil revenue.

h)  They are afraid it will end the strong reconciliation sentiment that currently exits.

i) They are afraid it will make Iraq weaker in regards to their neighbors.

Obama’s Open Letter To Gay Americans

Money quote:

As your President, I will use the bully pulpit to urge states to treat same-sex couples with full equality in their family and adoption laws. I personally believe that civil unions represent the best way to secure that equal treatment. But I also believe that the federal government should not stand in the way of states that want to decide on their own how best to pursue equality for gay and lesbian couples — whether that means a domestic partnership, a civil union, or a civil marriage.

The full thing after the jump:

I’m running for President to build an America that lives up to our founding promise of equality for all – a promise that extends to our gay brothers and sisters. It’s wrong to have millions of Americans living as second-class citizens in this nation. And I ask for your support in this election so that together we can bring about real change for all LGBT Americans. Equality is a moral imperative. That’s why throughout my career, I have fought to eliminate discrimination against LGBTAmericans. In Illinois, I co-sponsored a fully inclusive bill that prohibited discrimination on the basis of both sexual orientation and gender identity, extending protection to the workplace, housing, and places of public accommodation.

In the U.S. Senate, I have co-sponsored bills that would equalize tax treatment for same-sex couples and provide benefits to domestic partners of federal employees. And as president, I will place the weight of my administration behind the enactment of the Matthew Shepard Act to outlaw hate crimes and a fully inclusive Employment Non-Discrimination Act to outlaw workplace discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity. As your President, I will use the bully pulpit to urge states to treat same-sex couples with full equality in their family and adoption laws. I personally believe that civil unions represent the best way to secure that equal treatment. But I also believe that the federal government should not stand in the way of states that want to decide on their own how best to pursue equality for gay and lesbian couples — whether that means a domestic partnership, a civil union, or a civil marriage.

Unlike Senator Clinton, I support the complete repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) – a position I have held since before arriving in the U.S. Senate. While some say we should repeal only part of the law, I believe we should get rid of that statute altogether. Federal law should not discriminate in any way against gay and lesbian couples, which is precisely what DOMA does. I have also called for us to repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, and I have worked to improve the Uniting American Families Act so we can afford same-sex couples the same rights and obligations as married couples in our immigration system. The next president must also address the HIV/AIDS epidemic. When it comes to prevention, we do not have to choose between values and science. While abstinence education should be part of any strategy, we also need to use common sense. We should have age-appropriate sex education that includes information about contraception. We should pass the JUSTICE Act to combat infection within our prison population. And we should lift the federal ban on needle exchange, which could dramatically reduce rates of infection among drug users. In addition, local governments can protect public health by distributing contraceptives.

We also need a president who’s willing to confront the stigma – too often tied to homophobia – that continues to surround HIV/AIDS. I confronted this stigma directly in a speech to evangelicals at Rick Warren’s Saddleback Church, and will continue to speak out as president. That is where I stand on the major issues of the day. But having the right positions on the issues is only half the battle. The other half is to win broad support for those positions. And winning broad support will require stepping outside our comfort zone. If we want to repeal DOMA, repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, and implement fully inclusive laws outlawing hate crimes and discrimination in the workplace, we need to bring the message of LGBT equality to skeptical audiences as well as friendly ones – and that’s what I’ve done throughout my career. I brought this message of inclusiveness to all of America in my keynote address at the 2004 Democratic convention.

I talked about the need to fight homophobia when I announced my candidacy for President, and I have been talking about LGBT equality to a number of groups during this campaign – from local LGBT activists to rural farmers to parishioners at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Dr. Martin Luther King once preached. Just as important, I have been listening to what all Americans have to say. I will never compromise on my commitment to equal rights for all LGBTAmericans. But neither will I close my ears to the voices of those who still need to be convinced. That is the work we must do to move forward together. It is difficult. It is challenging. And it is necessary. Americans are yearning for leadership that can empower us to reach for what we know is possible. I believe that we can achieve the goal of full equality for the millions of LGBT people in this country. To do that, we need leadership that can appeal to the best parts of the human spirit. Join with me, and I will provide that leadership. Together, we will achieve real equality for all Americans, gay and straight alike.

The Awakening On Snooze?

By far the most important development in Iraq for our side this past year has been the decision of the Sunni tribes to tilt provisionally with the US against al Qaeda. It doesn’t move the ball forward much – because it doesn’t address the basic problem, which is Sunni-Shiite suspicion. But it definitely helped restore some semblance of order, and kept some pressure on the al Qaeda menace that Bush, Rumsfeld and Cheney brought to Iraq. Now, though, the deeper reality seems to be resurfacing. The Sunnis are pissed at inevitable clashes with US troops, there is more worry about the Jihadists infiltrating the Awakening, and the refusal of the central "government" to integrate the Sunni forces in more than a nominal fashion is prompting some defections and the usual anti-American grumbling.

It doesn’t mercifully seem like a huge problem yet. But the band-aid may be coming off. The wound continues to fester. As it has for, er, centuries.

Obama Self-Parody Alert

Those wacky liberals have an organization called "Obamacycle" to make sure all campaign materials are environmentally recycled.

[Update: I garbled this. A reader corrects:

Actually, the organization is to get signs and other campaign materials, which are not available otherwise due to a huge back-order, into the hands of people facing upcoming primaries…we’ll save the actual recycling until after November…]