The Dish

Two readers differ with my characterization of John McCain’s argument that talking about withdrawal from Iraq is intellectually insulting:

That wasn’t temper … that was someone who appeared to me to be passionate about winning the war. It was nice to see!

Another:

Actually, McCain took a good shot at Obama and scored.

Look, Obama has hitched his wagon to the Maneuver A Brigade Out Every Two Months schedule that is supposed to get us out over a period of 16 months. If I’m Al Qaeda and the Iranians, I ramp up my bombings and attacks on the Americans while they are withdrawing to make my Muslim audience think that the Americans are withdrawing under fire. This is Bo-Peep Warmaking and McCain is right to call the Young Lad on it.

McCain gets this. Obama doesn’t. Or, at least, he does intellectually but he isn’t telling his base voters the truth: once he is elected he will be forced by events to adopt Bush’s surge policy. Hand it to McCain-he the one who is being honest about what will have to be a protracted, painful withdraw. Barack is still peddling candy to his base voters.

It feels like the general election has already begun, doesn’t it? On one point: it seems stupid to me to hinge our strategy on how al Qaeda will spin it. However we withdraw from Iraq – and McCain wants us to withdraw as much as Obama – al Qaeda will say it’s a victory for them. What really matters is whether it is a victory for them, how we withdraw prudently, how we get the Iraqis to step up (or not), and whether the costs and blowback of occupying Iraq for the rest of our lives are worth avoiding the unrest that would follow our departure.

Iraq is not Germany. It isn’t even Kuwait. If McCain doesn’t understand that, then he’s the one who’s insulting our intelligence.

A reality check: Clinton has a 17 point lead in the most current poll.

Of the quarter or so of Republicans who somewhat or strongly disapprove of the Iraq war, McCain beats Huckabee. Huckabee wins a majority of those who "strongly support" the war (52 to 41 percent). My only explanation is that support for the Iraq war is actually a religious phenomenon; and the pastor wins the votes of the Bush-cultists. (Hat tip: Matt.)

A reader writes:

My wife and I have never voted for anything left of Republican, frequently voting on the Conservative party line when available.  Yet today, we both voted for Hillary in the VA primary.  Why?  Because it seems McCain has it wrapped up, so why waste our vote on the Republican side; she is a lot less scary than Obama in many ways (better the Devil you know), and I think she is more easily beaten with her high negatives and lack of charisma.  So we were part of the high Dem turn out today which I am sure you will hear about.  And there is no way we will ever vote Dem in November.

We live in a highly conservative precinct (Eric Cantor is our Congressman).  I saw many folks today picking up the Democratic ballot also.  I think my wife and I were far from alone in our thinking.

It’s excruciating, isn’t it? But this could be a big night for beagles everywhere. Screw Obama. Go Uno!

A guide to the new world from Wired.

Matt sums it up:

Basically, everyone voted for Obama.

From the exits in Virginia:

Nearly seven in 10 voters in Virginia’s Republican primary called themselves conservatives. Mike Huckabee won half of their votes, including two-thirds of those who called themselves "very conservative." Four in 10 Virginia Republican voters were born-again evangelical Christians, and they strongly supported Huckabee over John McCain. Huckabee won the votes of two-thirds of those who said they were looking for a candidate who shared their values. McCain won the votes of two-thirds of moderates and almost half of those who called themselves "somewhat conservative."

CNN calls it, as the polls close. Their exits must be decisive.

Hard to know whether they’re accurate, but some suggest that Obama has won women voters in Virginia 58 – 42. It’s tied among whites; and overwhelmingly for Obama among blacks and younger voters. Among critical independents – the voters who may be tempted to vote for McCain in the fall – Obama is beating Clinton 2 to 1. If the landslide numbers that Drudge is reporting pan out, the Clinton campaign will enter what can only be called crisis mode. How do you lose eight primaries in a row and still claim you can be the nominee? More exit-poll crack here.