Very Long Text Messages

Forget the Kindle, in Japan the cellphone may be the future of literature: 

Of last year’s 10 best-selling novels, five were originally cellphone novels, mostly love stories written in the short sentences characteristic of text messaging but containing little of the plotting or character development found in traditional novels. What is more, the top three spots were occupied by first-time cellphone novelists, touching off debates in the news media and blogosphere.

Race and Obama

A reader writes:

In states where the black population is less than 5%, Obama has a record of 7 wins, 2 losses and 1 undecided (NM).   In states where the black population is 20% or higher, he is undefeated at 4-0. However, in states that are between 5-20% black, his record is a fairly dismal 4-10 (with one of those victories being Illinois).

The theory here is that Obama does well where the black population is so low that identity politics isn’t an issue.  And, he does well where the black share of Democratic primary voters is so high that he needs few white voters to carry the day.  He has the hardest time in states that are black enough to have some racialized politics, but without enough black voters to completely tip the scales.

This corresponds to the long held observation that black candidates in general do best in either fairly non-black environments or in heavy black environments but struggle with the in between, where white majority fears that they will be the tool of an aggrieved constituency.  (Some, of course, have broken that mold like Doug Wilder, and Carol Mosely-Braun and Obama himself).

For Obama’s upcoming contests, this bodes well for Maryland, D.C., Virginia, Nebraska and Vermont and maybe Rhode Island, but not so well for Ohio and Texas.

McCain, Cameron and Conservatism

Do they represent the future of milder, more liberal right wing? Tim Montgomerie argues:

David Cameron and John McCain have much in common.  That much was clear when, in October 2006, the Republican crossed the Atlantic to give a keynote address to the Tory annual conference.  They are also both free-traders and David Cameron recently went out of his way to identify John McCain as an ally against protectionism. They are also allies on climate change, civil liberties and a conservatism that is more compassionate.  Tensions will centre around the British Tories’ rejection of liberal interventionism and an unwillingness to commit to a substantial rebuilding of Britain’s overstretched armed forces.  It would also be wrong to overstate the similarities between UK and US domestic policy priorities.  On welfare reform, tax policy and action against crime American public policy is ten years ahead of Britain.  Issues that are less electorally salient in America remain potent in Britain where taxes and crime have not been retired as issues.

It Really Is 1968 Again

A reader writes:

Times have changed. I’d swear that the Republicans are having an on-line version of the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago. No one’s getting his skull thudded by a police baton, but in a virtual sense, it’s turning out just a bloody.

Actually, the parallels are interesting:  the President is unpopular and is leading an unpopular war. The nominee is tied to the war and can’t break free. The opponent is promising some vague way out. And the factions in the President’s party are far more pissed at each other than the factions in the opposition.